crazy
Claude being its closest rival is growing at a 640% YoY rate, much faster than ChatGPT's 62% over the same period.
there's a concept called the s-curve adoption race. the leader hits the flat top of its curve while the challenger is still on the steep slope. in platform economics, once you capture the mass market, growth compresses cuz the addressable pool just shrinks. Chatgpt owns the consumer market. Claude has dug in among developers and coders, building from a completely different foothold rather than attacking Chatgpt head-on.
think back to Netscape. it had over 90% browser market share at its peak. microsoft came in through a different angle, bundled ie with windows, and that was it.
and Anthropic just raised $65B at a roughly $1 trillion valuation. both companies are also heading toward ipo.
let's see where this goes.
@summernotes
Claude being its closest rival is growing at a 640% YoY rate, much faster than ChatGPT's 62% over the same period.
there's a concept called the s-curve adoption race. the leader hits the flat top of its curve while the challenger is still on the steep slope. in platform economics, once you capture the mass market, growth compresses cuz the addressable pool just shrinks. Chatgpt owns the consumer market. Claude has dug in among developers and coders, building from a completely different foothold rather than attacking Chatgpt head-on.
think back to Netscape. it had over 90% browser market share at its peak. microsoft came in through a different angle, bundled ie with windows, and that was it.
and Anthropic just raised $65B at a roughly $1 trillion valuation. both companies are also heading toward ipo.
let's see where this goes.
@summernotes
❤🔥13
"You need to make yourself a big target for luck, and the way to do that is to be curious. Try lots of things, meet lots of people, read lots of books, ask lots of questions."
- Paul Graham, How to Do Great Work
- Paul Graham, How to Do Great Work
💘13
Nodira - 101 Ways to Stay Sane
называется вышла на прогулку
basically a few weeks ago there was a guy who after seeing me in a cafe asked for my number and i left without giving.
he followed me.
i had my airpods in and walked for 5 mins without noticing him, until he appeared right in front of me, all sweaty. asked why would anyone walk so fast.
i hate running but i think i’m a good walker lol
he followed me.
i had my airpods in and walked for 5 mins without noticing him, until he appeared right in front of me, all sweaty. asked why would anyone walk so fast.
i hate running but i think i’m a good walker lol
😭13
получается SpaceX IPO is essentially a crypto playbook
they’re selling to the public approx 4% of the company at a $1.75 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion. and insiders owning all the rest unlock in tranches starting from the first post-ipo earnings report.
in crypto they call it low float/high fdv. the idea is, you sell a tiny slice at a massive valuation making the company look appealing, then insiders unlock and sell into the crowd that bought in.
Goldman Sachs number that the valuation rests on: xAI revenue going from $3.2b in 2025 to $322b by 2030. 100x in five years. EVEN when the unit lost $6.4b in 2025, shed all 10 co-founders, and now rents out its memphis data center to Anthropic because Grok underperformed.
nasdaq also rewrote its rules last month to let the largest IPOs enter the nasdaq 100 after just 15 trading days instead of waiting months, and dropped the 10% minimum float requirement. once spacex gets indexed, every nasdaq 100 index fund is a forced buyer at whatever price the market sets. there you go, the exit for early holders.
SpaceX is prolly the most impressive engineering operation alive. but the ipo is a financial product after all, and the financial product is structured to benefit insiders first.
P.S. funny enough, goldman, who says it's worth $1.75t, is also the one getting paid to sell it to you.
@summernotes
they’re selling to the public approx 4% of the company at a $1.75 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion. and insiders owning all the rest unlock in tranches starting from the first post-ipo earnings report.
in crypto they call it low float/high fdv. the idea is, you sell a tiny slice at a massive valuation making the company look appealing, then insiders unlock and sell into the crowd that bought in.
Goldman Sachs number that the valuation rests on: xAI revenue going from $3.2b in 2025 to $322b by 2030. 100x in five years. EVEN when the unit lost $6.4b in 2025, shed all 10 co-founders, and now rents out its memphis data center to Anthropic because Grok underperformed.
nasdaq also rewrote its rules last month to let the largest IPOs enter the nasdaq 100 after just 15 trading days instead of waiting months, and dropped the 10% minimum float requirement. once spacex gets indexed, every nasdaq 100 index fund is a forced buyer at whatever price the market sets. there you go, the exit for early holders.
SpaceX is prolly the most impressive engineering operation alive. but the ipo is a financial product after all, and the financial product is structured to benefit insiders first.
P.S. funny enough, goldman, who says it's worth $1.75t, is also the one getting paid to sell it to you.
@summernotes
💘5
cool thing about weekends is that you wake up early without alarms
when we were kids, my brother and i would get up really early on weekend mornings even though during weekdays it’d be terribly hard to wake us up.
speaking of kids.
yy was talking with mom and now thinking there was some real chance i’d be pursuing medicine right now.
basically, 4-5yo me would go around the garden tying back together the halves of earthworms my dad accidentally chopped while working. or if i saw a bee that lost its stinger, i’d shove a toothpick in hoping it’d live on.
once i did that and right after my surgery, grandfather stepped on my bee. i cried.
@summernotes
when we were kids, my brother and i would get up really early on weekend mornings even though during weekdays it’d be terribly hard to wake us up.
speaking of kids.
yy was talking with mom and now thinking there was some real chance i’d be pursuing medicine right now.
basically, 4-5yo me would go around the garden tying back together the halves of earthworms my dad accidentally chopped while working. or if i saw a bee that lost its stinger, i’d shove a toothpick in hoping it’d live on.
once i did that and right after my surgery, grandfather stepped on my bee. i cried.
@summernotes
💘11😭9
i've been thinking about how my work breaks down into reactive and active.
reactive tasks usually have a shorter deadline. finish this by tomorrow, reply to that today. they're low-resistance and completing them feels like progress for the day. active tasks require more of you and not just patching up smth. thats sitting down with a problem with focus and attention until something comes out of it.
and its a bad habit to use reactive tasks to avoid crossing over. you clear the small stuff, tell yourself you're building momentum, and by evening you've been "productive" all day without touching the thing that mattered the most.
but then there's another layer to it.
sometimes, you're genuinely trying to clear mental clutter first so you can get to the real problem with a cleaner headspace. the issue tho is thst there's no perfect time for deep work. at some point you just have to sit down and force yourself into flow.
UH. i wish i did this more myself too. otherwise guilt will eat me alive one day.
deep work also carries more emotional weight. it's harder to do in front of others, in shared spaces. it needs some solitude. which is probably why i end up carrying a lot of the thinking part of my work home. on weekends especially, when i'm on my own for longer, i can think in extended stretches. so naturally that's when the real mental work happens.
some people say that it serves me well. some say i need to draw a line, have some “work life balance”.
@summernotes
reactive tasks usually have a shorter deadline. finish this by tomorrow, reply to that today. they're low-resistance and completing them feels like progress for the day. active tasks require more of you and not just patching up smth. thats sitting down with a problem with focus and attention until something comes out of it.
and its a bad habit to use reactive tasks to avoid crossing over. you clear the small stuff, tell yourself you're building momentum, and by evening you've been "productive" all day without touching the thing that mattered the most.
but then there's another layer to it.
sometimes, you're genuinely trying to clear mental clutter first so you can get to the real problem with a cleaner headspace. the issue tho is thst there's no perfect time for deep work. at some point you just have to sit down and force yourself into flow.
UH. i wish i did this more myself too. otherwise guilt will eat me alive one day.
deep work also carries more emotional weight. it's harder to do in front of others, in shared spaces. it needs some solitude. which is probably why i end up carrying a lot of the thinking part of my work home. on weekends especially, when i'm on my own for longer, i can think in extended stretches. so naturally that's when the real mental work happens.
some people say that it serves me well. some say i need to draw a line, have some “work life balance”.
@summernotes
❤11
worrying about becoming complacent is itself proof you won’t
(btw cut down my screen time to 3 hours or so. for me its a record lol.
instead now laptop screen time increased🙂↔️)
(btw cut down my screen time to 3 hours or so. for me its a record lol.
instead now laptop screen time increased🙂↔️)