⚡️ JUST IN: The CLARITY Act failed to secure the required 60 votes to advance.

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After returning to office, Trump made more securities trades than all Congress members combined.

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Today’s focus is the Fed’s rate decision, which will determine whether markets move higher toward the midterms (spoiler: they will).

JPMorgan says holding rates is bearish, while a 0.25% hike is bullish, somehow confusing everyone.

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Before the 2000 dot-com crash, the S&P 500 jumped 12%, returning to previous highs. Investors who bet heavily on the internet’s future were right in the long term, but lost 50% of their capital over the next two years.

Three separate 20% bear-market rallies kept bulls in the market until they went bankrupt. The bottom came in 2002, after all participants had been wiped out, and it took about 14 years to return to breakeven.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Fed hikes interest rate 25 bps

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Meanwhile, Trump fired Powell for not cutting rates, then appointed Warsh, who now raises rates 1.5 months before midterms.

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Trading is brutal because there’s nowhere to hide.

If you fail, it’s on you.

If you succeed, it’s on you.

In most areas of life, there’s always someone or something else you can point to.

Your strategy failed? You chose it.

You overleveraged? You chose it.

You revenge traded? You chose it.

You blew the account? You did it.

In a normal job, you can blame your boss.

In business, you can blame your team.

In life, you can blame circumstances.

Trading strips all of that away.

Your P&L is a mirror.

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🔴 Midterms Test AI Stocks

US midterm elections are becoming a key risk for AI stocks as backlash against data centers grows and calls for AI safety rules intensify. Lawmakers from both parties are raising alarms over AI safety.

If Democrats regain control of the Senate, it could trigger a stock sell-off. Bookmakers see rising odds that Democrats will retake both chambers of Congress, as Trump and the parties position themselves on AI.

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Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei again called for slower AI development for public safety at a tech conference in San Francisco.

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❗️ September Signals for US Stocks

For DOW, the start of September this year was its worst since the 2008 global financial crisis. Some experts call it a “sign.”

Others note that SP500 and Nasdaq have not fallen since September began. Historically, September is the weakest month for US stocks, with selling ideally peaking mid-month before a strong Q4.

This year, a “Trump-pump” ahead of the November midterm elections could boost Q4. With the Iran fiasco and other failures, stocks and crypto could give Trump one of his easiest and most visible pre-election victories.

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🇪🇺 EU Seeks China Auto Cuts

The EU is asking China to voluntarily limit car exports. Chinese hybrids currently account for about one-third of the European market, and Brussels wants that share cut to 15%.

The EU also wants China to buy more European products. Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc’s trade deficit with China had reached €1 billion.

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