JPMorgan just published a frightening chart of global oil inventories. If the line reaches 6.8, the global economy will collapse.

✅@futures

The Bank of England spent more than £85,000 on research to justify replacing historic banknote figures. Winston Churchill, Jane Austen, Joseph Turner and Alan Turing could give way to hedgehogs, foxes, puffins and dolphins.

✅@futures

⛽️ LNG Shift to US

Shell says the loss of 20 million tonnes of LNG from the Middle East will be largely offset by supplies from the US.

Some argue the Hormuz blockade and other transport corridor blockades are part of Trump’s long-term strategy to aggressively expand the US share of global energy trade. Trump is offering US oil and LNG to all major buyers as a “great alternative.”

✅@futures

⚡️ JUST IN: The CLARITY Act failed to secure the required 60 votes to advance.

✅@futures

After returning to office, Trump made more securities trades than all Congress members combined.

✅@futures

Today’s focus is the Fed’s rate decision, which will determine whether markets move higher toward the midterms (spoiler: they will).

JPMorgan says holding rates is bearish, while a 0.25% hike is bullish, somehow confusing everyone.

✅@futures

Before the 2000 dot-com crash, the S&P 500 jumped 12%, returning to previous highs. Investors who bet heavily on the internet’s future were right in the long term, but lost 50% of their capital over the next two years.

Three separate 20% bear-market rallies kept bulls in the market until they went bankrupt. The bottom came in 2002, after all participants had been wiped out, and it took about 14 years to return to breakeven.

✅@futures

⚡️ JUST IN: Fed hikes interest rate 25 bps

✅@futures

Meanwhile, Trump fired Powell for not cutting rates, then appointed Warsh, who now raises rates 1.5 months before midterms.

✅@futures

Trading is brutal because there’s nowhere to hide.

If you fail, it’s on you.

If you succeed, it’s on you.

In most areas of life, there’s always someone or something else you can point to.

Your strategy failed? You chose it.

You overleveraged? You chose it.

You revenge traded? You chose it.

You blew the account? You did it.

In a normal job, you can blame your boss.

In business, you can blame your team.

In life, you can blame circumstances.

Trading strips all of that away.

Your P&L is a mirror.

✅@futures

🔴 Midterms Test AI Stocks

US midterm elections are becoming a key risk for AI stocks as backlash against data centers grows and calls for AI safety rules intensify. Lawmakers from both parties are raising alarms over AI safety.

If Democrats regain control of the Senate, it could trigger a stock sell-off. Bookmakers see rising odds that Democrats will retake both chambers of Congress, as Trump and the parties position themselves on AI.

✅@futures

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei again called for slower AI development for public safety at a tech conference in San Francisco.

✅@futures