Negative correlation between US stocks and government bond yields is rapidly increasing, indicating rising sensitivity of stocks to rate hike expectations.

Traders are actively betting on a Fed rate hike this year, according to BBG.

✅@futures

⚡️ JUST IN: The US Senate votes to halt the Iran war unless Trump gets approval from Congress.

✅@futures

$1 trillion erased from the stock market today as the dollar index $DXY hits a 13-month high.

✅@futures

⚡️ JUST IN: Gulf states are negotiating a new security pact with Iran, moving away from the US umbrella, according to the Qatari PM.

A separate Israeli report claims Qatar has quietly expanded economic and military cooperation with Iran since 2018, and a formal regional security framework excluding Washington would mark a major shift in the Gulf's stance.

✅@futures

US Dollar Index (DXY) continues strengthening against global currencies after months of consolidation at a long-term support level.

Dollar strength usually signals "risk-off" sentiment in risky assets like stocks and crypto.

✅@futures

Michael Saylor is on track to become the first CEO ever to experience a 99% stock collapse twice in one career.

✅@futures

⚡️ JUST IN: Trump says Iran informed the US that no tolls or charges are being imposed on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

He adds he will release Iranian funds to US farmers and ranchers and that food, urgently needed in Iran, will be bought exclusively from the United States.

✅@futures

Elon Musk is no longer a trillionaire after SpaceX shares fell.

✅@futures

🔽 SpaceX loses most of its IPO gains within days

SpaceX shares jumped from the IPO price to a peak of around $225, briefly pushing the company's valuation close to $3 trillion. Within days, the stock fell to $150 before recovering to roughly $162.

At its peak, SpaceX briefly reached a valuation of nearly $3 trillion, putting it above both Microsoft and Amazon despite being a much smaller business by revenue and profitability.
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For comparison:
• Microsoft: $318B revenue, $125B profit
• Amazon: $743B revenue, $91B profit
• SpaceX: $19B revenue, -$9B profit
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Part of the explanation is structure. Only about 5% of SpaceX shares are publicly traded. The market price of that small float determines the valuation assigned to the remaining 95% held by Elon Musk, employees, and early investors.
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The recent acquisition of xAI has also raised concerns about debt and integration risk, adding pressure after the initial IPO excitement faded.
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There is a reason many IPOs follow a similar path: excitement first, fundamentals later. The chart has repeated often enough to become a pattern.

✔️ @venture

💵 US Treasuries in Structural Bear Market

US Treasuries have posted an average annual inflation-adjusted return of -3% over the last 10 years, the worst since the 1980s.

The S&P 500 returned +12% annually in real terms over the same period, the widest stock-bond gap since the 1960s.

Sustained negative real Treasury returns happened only in the 1910s, 1940s, and 1970s-80s, all with inflation sometimes above 10%.

Current deficit spending and inflation remain out of control.

✅@futures

⚡️ JUST IN: Iran's Speaker of the Parliament says Trump "falsely claims" that unfrozen Iranian assets will buy US agriculture products.

He adds, "The only crop we're harvesting is what you planted: decades of mistrust. It's organic, abundant, and homegrown."

✅@futures

⚡️ JUST IN: US May PCE inflation rises to 4.1%, the highest since April 2023.

Core PCE inflation increased to 3.4%, the highest since October 2023.

Inflation is now running at more than double the Fed's 2.0% target.

✅@futures

💱 Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise for July Meeting

There is now a 25% chance the Fed will raise rates at the July 29th meeting.

Markets began the year expecting 2 rate cuts by then. The "higher for longer" outlook is back.

✅@futures

⚡️ JUST IN: Crypto sees $450 million in levered long positions liquidated within 60 minutes.

During the sell-off, Bitcoin dropped to $58,000, marking a new 21-month low.

✅@futures