US issues Iran a general license for oil trade through August 21

The US has authorized the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian-origin oil, petrochemical, and petroleum products until August 21. This marks the official return of Iranian oil to global markets for the first time since 2018.

✅@futures

SpaceX shares fell nearly 50% from their record highs on June 16, losing 10.5% today and cutting market cap by over $250 billion.

✅@futures

⚡️ JUST IN: Iran rejects Trump administration claims of new nuclear commitments.

✅@futures

💱 Global Rate Cut Cycle Ends as Central Banks Balance Hikes and Cuts

In May, 26 central banks hiked rates and 26 cut rates among 52 worldwide, ending two years of more cuts than hikes each month.

The last balance was in early 2021 before three years of restrictive policy. The gap peaked mid-2022, with 28 more hikes than cuts.

Last week, the European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%, its first hike since September 2023. On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points to 1.0%, the highest since 1995.

These moves signal the start of a global tightening cycle.

✅@futures

⚡️ JUST IN: The Pentagon is requesting $80B from Congress to fund the US war on Iran, nearly triple the $29B estimated last month.

✅@futures

⚡️ JUST IN: Trump says Iran agreed to permanent nuclear inspections, while the US will keep the Strait of Hormuz open and lift the naval blockade.

✅@futures

Negative correlation between US stocks and government bond yields is rapidly increasing, indicating rising sensitivity of stocks to rate hike expectations.

Traders are actively betting on a Fed rate hike this year, according to BBG.

✅@futures

⚡️ JUST IN: The US Senate votes to halt the Iran war unless Trump gets approval from Congress.

✅@futures

$1 trillion erased from the stock market today as the dollar index $DXY hits a 13-month high.

✅@futures

⚡️ JUST IN: Gulf states are negotiating a new security pact with Iran, moving away from the US umbrella, according to the Qatari PM.

A separate Israeli report claims Qatar has quietly expanded economic and military cooperation with Iran since 2018, and a formal regional security framework excluding Washington would mark a major shift in the Gulf's stance.

✅@futures

US Dollar Index (DXY) continues strengthening against global currencies after months of consolidation at a long-term support level.

Dollar strength usually signals "risk-off" sentiment in risky assets like stocks and crypto.

✅@futures

Michael Saylor is on track to become the first CEO ever to experience a 99% stock collapse twice in one career.

✅@futures

⚡️ JUST IN: Trump says Iran informed the US that no tolls or charges are being imposed on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

He adds he will release Iranian funds to US farmers and ranchers and that food, urgently needed in Iran, will be bought exclusively from the United States.

✅@futures

Elon Musk is no longer a trillionaire after SpaceX shares fell.

✅@futures

🔽 SpaceX loses most of its IPO gains within days

SpaceX shares jumped from the IPO price to a peak of around $225, briefly pushing the company's valuation close to $3 trillion. Within days, the stock fell to $150 before recovering to roughly $162.

At its peak, SpaceX briefly reached a valuation of nearly $3 trillion, putting it above both Microsoft and Amazon despite being a much smaller business by revenue and profitability.
⠀
For comparison:
• Microsoft: $318B revenue, $125B profit
• Amazon: $743B revenue, $91B profit
• SpaceX: $19B revenue, -$9B profit
⠀
Part of the explanation is structure. Only about 5% of SpaceX shares are publicly traded. The market price of that small float determines the valuation assigned to the remaining 95% held by Elon Musk, employees, and early investors.
⠀
The recent acquisition of xAI has also raised concerns about debt and integration risk, adding pressure after the initial IPO excitement faded.
⠀

There is a reason many IPOs follow a similar path: excitement first, fundamentals later. The chart has repeated often enough to become a pattern.

✔️ @venture

💵 US Treasuries in Structural Bear Market

US Treasuries have posted an average annual inflation-adjusted return of -3% over the last 10 years, the worst since the 1980s.

The S&P 500 returned +12% annually in real terms over the same period, the widest stock-bond gap since the 1960s.

Sustained negative real Treasury returns happened only in the 1910s, 1940s, and 1970s-80s, all with inflation sometimes above 10%.

Current deficit spending and inflation remain out of control.

✅@futures