What we're watching:

Selling pressure is still "orderly" here, with the Volatility Index, $VIX, at a modest ~35.

We are not seeing capitulation yet.

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Despite President Trump's calls for rate cuts, there is now an 85% chance of no rate cut occurring in May, per Kalshi.

Fed Chair Powell most recently said he is "not in a hurry" to cut rates.

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The Fed hasn’t flinched.

FOMC minutes show a steady hawkish tone for 3 straight months.

When will they pivot?

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❕ MEMECOIN TRADING REALITY CHECK:

60% of traders LOSE money on memecoins.

4.7% break even.

24% earn less than $100.

11.2% make over $100.

3% score over $1,000.

Just 0.5% rake in over $10,000 (barely a blip on the chart).

90% of memecoin traders either lose or make <$100.

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Fun fact: $NVDA and $TSLA have been more volatile than $BTC over the past year.

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President Trump on Cybertruck:

"This is the coolest design. Look! I think I have a great imagination. Who else but this guy would design this? And everybody on the road is looking at it. It's amazing actually."

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It has never been easier to get rich online than it is today.

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The U.S. dollar is having its worst start to a year since 1995.

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A green start to the market today

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Trump Media, Crypto.com, and Yorkville America Digital Sign Deal to Launch Truth.Fi ETFs

Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG) has entered into a partnership with Crypto.com and Yorkville America Digital to launch a new line of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) under the brand Truth.Fi.

The ETFs will include digital assets and securities with a focus on U.S.-based manufacturing across various sectors. Pending regulatory approval, the funds are expected to launch by the end of 2025 in the U.S., Europe, and Asia.

TMTG also plans to allocate part of its reserves to these new financial products, with a budget of up to $250 million.

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$BTC is now catching up with Gold rally.

The S&P 500 is still going down, which shows that BTC has started to decouple.

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BREAKING: Bitcoin surges above $90,000 for the first time since March 7th.

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Here's what counties have invested the most into Artificial Intelligence since 2013

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China unveils world's first Gold ATM that melts, tests, and converts gold into instant bank transfers.

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Central banks are shifting course.

Net 3-month global liquidity flow is rising rapidly — marking the strongest surge in a long time. Most central banks are quietly but aggressively injecting liquidity.

• As we know: Liquidity comes first → then price action follows.
• Prices haven’t fully reacted yet, but that could change quickly, especially with ongoing tariff tensions. Many assets are already showing signs of a rebound.
• One central bank pulling back isn’t a problem — as long as another steps in to offset the balance.

That’s why it’s crucial to monitor not just the Fed, but all major central banks.

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White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the U.S. is “doing very well” in discussions regarding a potential trade deal with China.

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Tesla ($TSLA) is set to release its earnings report within the hour (20:00–20:30 UTC), with the earnings call scheduled for 21:30 UTC.

• Options are pricing in 8.8% implied volatility
• Traders are anticipating a strong market reaction
• All eyes on guidance, margins, and AI-related updates

Volatility is expected to spike regardless of the direction.

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The U.S. is close to reaching deals with Japan and India to avoid massive tariffs.

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Google has pushed back against a DOJ proposal to split the company, arguing it would harm innovation and weaken the U.S. in its tech race with China. The case stems from an antitrust trial where Google was deemed a monopoly in search.

The DOJ wants Chrome spun off and search data opened up to rivals. Google warns this could undermine cybersecurity, raise costs, and hurt U.S. AI leadership. The trial runs through May 9, with a verdict expected in August. Google plans to appeal.

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Trump Softens Tone on China, Signals Deal Is Coming

Donald Trump has sharply dialed back his rhetoric on China, signaling a more optimistic outlook on trade relations.

• A deal with China “will be reached”
• China “will be happy” with the outcome
• Final tariffs won’t hit 145%, but won’t drop to zero either
• Talks are going well with China and “almost all countries”
• Tariffs will ultimately benefit the US — “everyone will win”

A notable shift ahead of key economic and election milestones.

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