Black Swan Update: The India–Pakistan flashpoint is no longer theoretical.

Last night, tensions crossed into military engagement — confirming the earlier signals we flagged.

• Pakistan’s PM convened the National Security Council and declared the country had responded to “an act of war” by India

• India launched airstrikes on Pakistani territory using Rafale jets, SCALP missiles, and Hammer bombs — targeting alleged militant camps

• Pakistan claims to have shot down five Indian aircraft and reported 8 fatalities and 35 injuries

• Both sides are escalating diplomatically: Pakistan filed a protest to the UN, India insists no civilian targets were hit

• The U.S. expressed support for India, Turkey backed Pakistan, and China called for de-escalation

This conflict sits at the intersection of geopolitics and markets. Both nations are nuclear powers, and any further escalation introduces risk-on/risk-off volatility.

Such conflicts typically trigger short-term demand for USD and U.S. treasuries as safe havens.

Regional currencies and equities — especially in Asia — may come under pressure.

Commodities like oil and gold tend to react quickly, while crypto usually lags unless systemic liquidity is impacted.

Market makers don’t need a war — they need a reason.

Geopolitical shocks are perfect justification for sudden moves in risk assets.

If conditions worsen or headlines intensify, this narrative could be used to justify sell-offs, especially in overstretched markets.

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Top trending tickers pre-market:

1. $DIS +9.5%
2. $NBIS +11%
3. $AMD +1.2%
4. $UBER -2.4%
5. $QBTS +0.2%

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JUST IN: Disney shares jump 11% after strong profit outlook

Disney has announced plans to launch its first-ever theme park in the Middle East, with the new destination set to open in Abu Dhabi.

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JUST IN: U.S. VP Vance says “Russians are asking for too much”

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S&P 500 futures are now up just 19 points since the U.S. and China agreed to trade talks.

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JUST IN: Trump says court system is blocking him from doing his job

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3 for 3 on trendline breaks.
Now let’s see some follow-through!

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JUST IN: EU may target US-made cars with tariffs if talks collapse

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Another day, another $NFLX all-time high

The stock is up 40% in the past month

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JUST IN: Treasury Sec. Bessent says China negotiations begin Saturday

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FOMC is hours away.
Get ready — rate decision at 18:00 UTC
Powell speaks at 18:30 UTC.

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JUST IN: Apple says it's exploring adding AI-powered search to its browser.

Google shares are tumbling.

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Yesterday someone bought $600,000 worth of weekly $GOOG puts

This morning following the $AAPL / $GOOGL news his position is worth over $4,000,000

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JUST IN: Trump has said the Fed should cut rates.

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🚨 FOMC in 30 minutes

Will Powell cut rates today and shock the world or will he continue playing politics with the US economy?

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TRUMP: NOT OPEN TO PULLING BACK 145% TARIFFS

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Interest rates unchanged

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BREAKING: President Trump says China should "reassess" who asked for a trade policy meeting.

It appears Trump is signaling that China came to the table first, while China is saying the opposite.

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NASDAQ reacted to the zone we shared with you yesterday.

🚨 Now we’ll see if the area around 19,500 offers long-side confirmation going forward.

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Summary of today's Fed decision and press conference:

"Wait and see."

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