⚡️ JUST IN: Elon Musk says SpaceX, $SPCX, and Tesla, $TSLA, formed committees to discuss a potential merger.

Musk said combining the companies has “a lot of merit,” but shareholders must support the idea.

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You will level up your trading when you realize that doing nothing is doing something.

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The myth. The legend. He did it again.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Putin and US envoy Witkoff conclude Ukraine peace talks in Russia as Witkoff returns to Oslo to brief Zelenskyy.

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If you think oil prices will crash after the Iran war ends, think again: Brent's December 2028 futures price just broke an all-time high.

More than 2 billion barrels of oil were removed from the market, emergency stocks drained, and governments will eventually bid for barrels to refill them.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Meta ($META) ordered by a New Mexico court to pay $25 billion in penalties over the Cambridge Analytica scandal.

A jury found Meta liable for misleading people about how it safeguards and collects user data.

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⚡️ JUST IN: The State Department is preparing to announce the evacuation of diplomats and their families from some Gulf countries.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Tesla $TSLA beats on margin at 19.6% vs 17.8% expected, while revenue just misses at $28.05B.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Meta beats revenue at $64.6B, but operating income falls to $12.99B vs $20.85B expected. $META

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⚡️ JUST IN: The US and Israel are considering new strikes on Iran immediately after the US midterm elections, according to NYT.

Netanyahu planned a new bombing campaign at the beginning of this month, but Trump opposed resuming active hostilities before the elections, Financial Times reported.

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‼️ Oil Shipping Costs Surge

Everyone's focused on the price of oil, but what about the price of moving it?

The cost to ship oil is 7x higher than a year ago. A new GS report says freight rates have topped $20/barrel.

🟢 $7: Hormuz war-risk premiums

🟢 $4: Tankers tied up transferring oil outside the Gulf

🟢 $4: Higher ship fuel costs

🟢 $3: Rerouting and inefficient shipping

🟢 $2: Iran's blocked tanker fleet

With Hormuz attacks continuing daily, these prices aren't coming down anytime soon.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Nasdaq 100 futures extend losses to -2% after Trump says US is not negotiating with Iran and “something” will happen “fair soon.”

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China’s Unitree unveiled the H2-X Kung Fu Legend Guardian, a robot bodyguard that can beat everyone, including its owner, so the manual urges friendly treatment.

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⚡️ JUST IN: The Fed’s rate-hold probability for next week rose to 92%, from 84% yesterday, 70% a week ago and 44% a month ago.

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🧠 Five biases that can distort your next trade

A couple of losses can shake your confidence before you place the next trade. Biases can also distort how you read the market, so the first step is recognizing where your judgment is being pulled off course.

🟢 1. Recency bias
Recency bias means giving recent events too much weight. Beyond losing confidence after a few losses, you might focus on one economic release while overlooking the broader fundamentals, or study only the latest candles and lose sight of the longer-term trend.

Step back and assess the longer-term picture for the trade or your portfolio. Keep your latest success or failure from dictating how you execute the next trade.

🟢 2. Confirmation bias
You may give more weight to analysis that supports your view and dismiss opposing arguments because you want to be right. Once bullish commentary has convinced you to go long, bearish market signals become easier to ignore, making your decision more subjective.

Stay flexible and consult analysts with different views. Another person may notice something you missed, helping you consider both sides before committing.

🟢 3. Herding bias
Backing out of a trade simply because many other traders hold the opposite position is herding bias. Following the majority can feel more comfortable than standing apart from it.

A contrarian trade still needs proper fundamental and technical analysis and a clear plan. If you have enough reason to expect a turn, the crowd's commitment to the current trend need not override your analysis. Assessing market sentiment may help if you need further confirmation.

🟢 4. Attribution bias
Attribution bias appears when you credit your skill for winners but blame losses on outside factors, such as unpredictable markets or a slow internet connection. Trading psychologist Dr. Brett Steenbarger warns that this can distort decision-making: treating everything that goes wrong as beyond your control makes it harder to identify habits you need to correct.

Keep a detailed trade journal covering what you did right and wrong, what you expected, what surprised you and what you could have done better. Steenbarger says this helps you take ownership of your strengths and weaknesses, which may make you more mindful of your trading process.

🟢 5. Addiction bias
Your biggest winning trades can remain especially vivid. Those memories alone are insufficient grounds for another trade; the numbers also need to support the likelihood of the trade working out.

When you recognize one of these patterns, apply the relevant check: restore the longer-term context, consider opposing analysis, examine your reasons for following the crowd, review your journal or check whether the numbers support the setup. Recognizing a bias gives you a specific habit to work on.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Trump says Iran is faking mines and hits to drive up oil prices before the US midterms.

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⚡️ JUST IN: OpenAI is closing in on a funding round raising up to $30 billion and valuing the company at $1.25 trillion, per CNBC.

Investors from the United Arab Emirates are leading the round alongside Coatue, framing it as an “opportunistic” bridge ahead of a potential IPO.

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To be happy, you must eliminate two things: the fear of a bad future and the memory of a bad past.

— Seneca

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⚡️ JUST IN: Israel says it has surrounded Hebron, Palestine, and begun a large-scale offensive following shots fired at the Israeli army.

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