BIS says bank deposit rates can throttle stablecoin growth, USDC most

Stack
- USDC supply dropped from ~$45B to under $25B in 2023 as bank rates topped 5%
- BIS study spans 2019-2025, a full rate cycle from near-zero to 5%+
- Circle's USDC showed the strongest rate sensitivity of any stablecoin tested

Story
USDC's 2023 outflows tracked bank deposit rates, not panic. Banks already hold a lever over stablecoin float and barely use it.

Watch
- USDC supply direction once the Fed starts cutting again
- Whether Circle adds holder-facing yield to blunt the rate lever

Full read: https://stackandstory.com/stories/banks-hold-rate-lever-over-stablecoins

Stablecoin supply flat, but payment volume up 45% this year

Stack
- Stablecoin payments hit $482B through September, up 45% YoY, per Allium
- Transaction count jumped 71% to over 1 billion payments in the same period
- Total stablecoin supply grew just 0.4% since January, sitting near $305B

Story
Flat supply looks like a slowdown. It's actually the same dollars clearing 1.6x more payment volume than a year ago, which is why Visa, Mastercard and Stripe all showed up this week.

Watch
- Allium's Q4 data: does transaction growth keep outpacing supply growth?
- Do Visa, Mastercard or Stripe break out stablecoin volume in earnings calls?

Full read: https://stackandstory.com/stories/stablecoin-supply-stalls-payments-velocity

Bitcoin ETFs lose $910M in two weeks as October stays red

Stack
- This week's outflow: $228.6 million, down sharply from the prior week
- Prior week's outflow: $681.1 million, the bigger single hit
- Combined two-week drain: roughly $910 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs

Story
The outflow pace slowed 66% week over week. That's not capitulation accelerating, it's a big redemption wave draining out.

Watch
- Watch for a third straight week of net outflows, even a small one
- Watch for a single day over $200M inflow breaking the current pattern

Full read: https://stackandstory.com/stories/bitcoin-etfs-bleed-910m-two-weeks

ETH ETFs just logged their worst month ever

Stack
- Ether ETFs: $955M in October outflows, the heaviest month of 2026
- Ether ETFs still hold just $610M net inflows for the full year
- Prior week saw $1.22B combined outflows, meaning the bleed is slowing

Story
A single October month erased a full year of Ether ETF gains. The pace is slowing but the hole it already dug isn't closing.

Watch
- Watch if Ether ETF YTD flows flip negative with ~$610M more outflows
- Watch if Bitcoin ETFs hit a third straight losing week

Full read: https://stackandstory.com/stories/eth-etf-outflows-worst-month

Mastercard builds a fraud and sanctions screen for stablecoin payments.

Stack
- Stablecoin Security launches in North America first, global rollout targeted for 2027
- Tool screens specifically for fraud and sanctions risk, not volatility or custody
- Gives Mastercard roughly a year of live data before wider deployment

Story
This isn't brand protection, it's a toll booth. Mastercard can't stop stablecoins from cutting out card rails, so it's trying to own the compliance layer instead.

Watch
- Watch whether Circle, Tether, or bank-issued stablecoins sign on as customers before 2027
- Watch for a competing cross-network screening product from Visa or a crypto-native vendor

Full read: https://stackandstory.com/stories/mastercard-stablecoin-security-tool

Bitcoin ETFs' best day in a month came from one fund alone

Stack
- IBIT pulled $665.2M in a single day, more than the whole category's $526.7M net
- Fidelity's FBTC lost $83.6M and Grayscale's GBTC lost $54.9M the same day
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs are still down about $88M for October despite the rebound

Story
The $527M headline is one fund's number dressed up as a category trend. Every other issuer either lost money or flatlined the same day.

Watch
- Watch if IBIT keeps carrying inflows solo over the next two weeks
- Watch whether October closes net negative despite Monday's print

Full read: https://stackandstory.com/stories/bitcoin-etfs-527m-ibit-concentration

Stablecoins move $400M an hour, mostly off-hours

Stack
- Stablecoins move over $400 million per hour on average, per Coinbase and The Block
- Off-hours transfers dominate overall volume in the study
- Quarterly adjusted volume is projected to hit $1.5 trillion by end of 2027

Story
The off-hours concentration is the real tell here. Banking-hour clustering would mean exchanges shuffling collateral; off-hours dominance means payment and remittance demand running on its own clock.

Watch
- Does quarterly volume stay on pace for $1.5T by 2027, or stall below it
- Does off-hours concentration persist as volume scales, or revert to market-hours clustering

Full read: https://stackandstory.com/stories/stablecoins-400-million-per-hour-off-hours

Switzerland lets retail buy a bitcoin ETF for the first time

Stack
- FINMA waived risk-diversification rules specifically for bitcoin, a first for any single crypto asset
- US bitcoin ETFs already hold over $97B in assets per CoinGlass, five years after Switzerland's 2021 qualified-investor fund
- Switzerland's 2021 crypto basket ETF was restricted to qualified investors only, unlike this new retail product

Story
This isn't Switzerland catching up to crypto. It's a regulator admitting one asset is now safe enough to break its own diversification rulebook for.

Watch
- Which issuer and bank actually launch the product, and on what timeline
- Whether FINMA extends the same single-asset exemption to ether or other coins next
- Early trading volume versus Switzerland's existing qualified-investor crypto basket fund

Full read: https://stackandstory.com/stories/swiss-retail-bitcoin-etf-finma

OCC sets a two-day redemption clock for stablecoin issuers

Stack
- Issuers must process redemptions within 2 business days under the final rule
- Rule and GENIUS Act both take effect Jan. 18, 2027
- OCC dropped its proposed presumption that affiliate deals violate the yield ban

Story
The headline is "stablecoins get a rulebook." The actual move is the OCC dropping its affiliate-yield presumption, which opens room for reward structures near the yield line.

Watch
- Watch for enforcement action against affiliate reward structures before Jan 18, 2027
- Watch for the Treasury-OCC joint AML/BSA rulemaking release date

Full read: https://stackandstory.com/stories/occ-stablecoin-rules-two-day-redemption

Ether ETFs lose $1.08B in October, Bitcoin funds barely move

Stack
- Ether ETFs: $1.08B net outflow in October, worst month since Nov 2025
- Bitcoin ETFs: just $67M out, despite a 2.2% price drop
- Ether ETF YTD inflows now $485M vs Bitcoin's $809M

Story
This isn't a crypto ETF slump. Bitcoin funds are flat on the month while Ether funds just gave back a year's worth of gains in three weeks.

Watch
- October close: does the outflow pass $1.1B, a record since launch?
- Does ETH hold above $2,400 even as outflows persist?

Full read: https://stackandstory.com/stories/ether-etfs-bleed-1b-bitcoin-holds-flat

ETF flows mirror Bitcoin's past, not its future, DWF finds

Stack
- Flow-to-past-price correlation: 0.54. Flow-to-future-price correlation: 0.03, per DWF Labs
- 7 of 8 Bitcoin drawdowns of 15%+ saw ETF outflows; all 9 matching rallies saw inflows
- Roughly 1/5 of ETF flows may be basis trades, long ETF and short CME futures, DWF estimates

Story
Big outflow headlines feel like a warning. The math says they're a rearview mirror, not a windshield.

Watch
- Watch for a drawdown that draws net inflows, breaking the 7-of-8 pattern
- Watch for CFTC data splitting basis trades from directional ETF buying

Full read: https://stackandstory.com/stories/etf-flows-confirm-bitcoin-dont-predict

Fireblocks denies the $2.5B Visa talks everyone's reporting

Stack
- Fireblocks raised at an $8B valuation in January 2022, per The Block
- Reported Visa price of $2.5B is roughly 69% below that mark
- Visa's stablecoin settlement volume hit $20B annualized in September, up 15x

Story
The denial isn't the story. The 69% markdown from 2022 to the reported price is what matters, and it says the 2022 crypto valuation cycle is still getting marked to market.

Watch
- Watch for a Visa SEC filing referencing custody M&A in Q4 2026
- Watch if Fireblocks announces a funding round or rival bidder within 60 days

Full read: https://stackandstory.com/stories/fireblocks-denies-visa-takeover-markdown

A Circle shareholder is suing Trump over a $2B USD1 deal with Abu Dhabi

Stack
- MGX routed $2 billion through Trump's USD1 stablecoin into Binance in 2025
- Trump's crypto ventures made him $1.4B while costing investors $4.7B, per Public Citizen
- A UAE-linked fund agreed to pay $500M for 49% of World Liberty

Story
A sovereign fund had every incentive to route $2B through a Trump-linked token instead of USDC. That's a relationship advantage, not a product one, and Circle can't out-engineer it.

Watch
- Watch if the DC court dismisses the suit on standing grounds before year-end
- Watch for further sovereign-linked inflows into USD1 beyond the $2B MGX deal

Full read: https://stackandstory.com/stories/circle-shareholder-lawsuit-trump-usd1

Bitcoin ETFs lose $636M in a day, erasing most of a rally

Stack
- $635.6M left Bitcoin ETFs Thursday, October's worst single day
- That wiped out 60% of a $1.07B three-day inflow streak
- October's net flow is now negative $176M after the swing

Story
One day erasing 60% of a three-day streak isn't a sentiment flip, it's concentrated selling from a thin pool of allocators. The scoreboard moves fast because few hands are moving it.

Watch
- Does another $1B+ inflow streak reappear within days, confirming thin flippy flows?
- Do ETH and SOL funds keep moving in lockstep with BTC's daily swings?

Full read: https://stackandstory.com/stories/bitcoin-etfs-636-million-october-red