A lot of familiar faces from the trenches have gone quiet these past few months. That’s what happens after a brutal cycle, people take heavy hits, capital gets wiped, and chart fatigue sets in.
Totally normal.
I’ve even been getting DMs asking if I’ve left crypto.
Not even close.
For those who don’t know: I’ve been full-time in crypto since 2020. This isn’t a phase or a side hustle, this is home.
You might have noticed I haven’t been posting many microcap “alpha” plays lately. That’s intentional. I’ve largely outgrown the ETH/SOL microcap casino and have been focusing my energy on bigger asymmetric opportunities.
Right now there are two areas I’m extremely convicted on.
First. $ASTER.
This is my highest conviction play of the year. The setup, the positioning, the momentum building behind it, everything lines up. I’m heavily positioned and treating this as a major cycle trade.
Second, I’ve been deep in the trenches networking with some serious builders and operators on a brand new chain. The energy there feels very reminiscent of the earliest Solana days, when the opportunity surface was wide open and the insiders who showed up early made generational returns.
The conversations happening behind the scenes are enough to make it clear:
this new ecosystem is going to matter.
So I’m positioning accordingly and planning to spend a significant part of this year deep inside that network, capturing opportunities as they emerge.
If you’re still here, still paying attention, and still hungry for the next wave -
turn notifications on.
Totally normal.
I’ve even been getting DMs asking if I’ve left crypto.
Not even close.
For those who don’t know: I’ve been full-time in crypto since 2020. This isn’t a phase or a side hustle, this is home.
You might have noticed I haven’t been posting many microcap “alpha” plays lately. That’s intentional. I’ve largely outgrown the ETH/SOL microcap casino and have been focusing my energy on bigger asymmetric opportunities.
Right now there are two areas I’m extremely convicted on.
First. $ASTER.
This is my highest conviction play of the year. The setup, the positioning, the momentum building behind it, everything lines up. I’m heavily positioned and treating this as a major cycle trade.
Second, I’ve been deep in the trenches networking with some serious builders and operators on a brand new chain. The energy there feels very reminiscent of the earliest Solana days, when the opportunity surface was wide open and the insiders who showed up early made generational returns.
The conversations happening behind the scenes are enough to make it clear:
this new ecosystem is going to matter.
So I’m positioning accordingly and planning to spend a significant part of this year deep inside that network, capturing opportunities as they emerge.
If you’re still here, still paying attention, and still hungry for the next wave -
turn notifications on.
3🤝5👏3🕊2👀2🦄2💅1
Solid Alpha 💎
Keep your BASE wallets ready 👀
$CLICK on BASE is the talk of the town in the OG underground trenches
I caught this at $80k mc, but wasted two days on DD. Just aped today. Still cheap
0xb964ca8757b0d64c50b0da17f0150563139361ac
NFA/DYOR 🍻
I caught this at $80k mc, but wasted two days on DD. Just aped today. Still cheap
0xb964ca8757b0d64c50b0da17f0150563139361ac
NFA/DYOR 🍻
👍2💅2
Solid Alpha 💎 pinned «$CLICK on BASE is the talk of the town in the OG underground trenches I caught this at $80k mc, but wasted two days on DD. Just aped today. Still cheap 0xb964ca8757b0d64c50b0da17f0150563139361ac NFA/DYOR 🍻»
Forwarded from Watcher Guru
Was chatting with a friend who got me into memecoins back in 2022.
He’s a proper trench veteran. OG. Built 8 figures purely from memecoins. No utility plays, no microcaps.
Right now, if you listen to the trenches, it’s all “things are worse”, “pumpfun ruined everything” and so on. Easy to get sucked into that echo chamber and lose sight of what’s actually happening.
That’s exactly when it helps to talk to people who’ve been through multiple cycles and are still active, to understand what’s really going on.
Bull or bear, the casino never really stops. You just have to play differently depending on the meta and where attention is.
You don’t have to play every day, but you can’t completely walk away either. You’ve got to stay aware of the game.
He’s a proper trench veteran. OG. Built 8 figures purely from memecoins. No utility plays, no microcaps.
Right now, if you listen to the trenches, it’s all “things are worse”, “pumpfun ruined everything” and so on. Easy to get sucked into that echo chamber and lose sight of what’s actually happening.
That’s exactly when it helps to talk to people who’ve been through multiple cycles and are still active, to understand what’s really going on.
Bull or bear, the casino never really stops. You just have to play differently depending on the meta and where attention is.
You don’t have to play every day, but you can’t completely walk away either. You’ve got to stay aware of the game.
❤4
Solid Alpha 💎
Aster♒
Here’s how I’m looking at $ASTER right now based on everything that’s happening under the hood.
A lot of people are still treating this like just another token, but the structure has actually changed quite a bit recently. Emissions have been cut massively, staking is going up, and buybacks are active. That combination matters more than people think.
What this really does first is not send price flying. It removes pressure. When emissions drop that hard and more tokens get staked, the constant sell flow reduces. So instead of wild downside, you usually get a stronger base forming. That’s step one. Stability before expansion.
Now the important part is what happens next.
If this tightening of supply continues and at the same time actual usage grows, meaning more traders, more volume, more fees, then things start getting interesting. Because now you have a loop where activity drives buybacks, buybacks reduce supply, and reduced supply amplifies price movement.
That’s when tokens move fast. Not before.
So I’d break it down like this.
If structure improves but demand stays average, you’re probably looking at something like a slow grind. Maybe somewhere in the $0.8 to $1.5 range. Nothing crazy, but healthy.
If adoption starts picking up and the narrative shifts a bit, then $2 to $4 becomes very realistic. This is where things start validating the thesis.
And if everything aligns properly, meaning strong usage, rising volume, and continued staking growth, then you can start thinking in the $5 to $7 range. That’s the zone where it actually starts competing seriously in the perp DEX space.
Now, if the market goes full risk on and this also captures attention at the same time, then yeah, even higher numbers don’t sound unrealistic anymore. But that’s not something I’d base a plan around, that’s more of an upside scenario.
One thing I think people get wrong here is assuming supply reduction alone will push price up. It doesn’t. It just sets the stage. Demand is what actually moves price.
Also, staking is strong, but it’s not permanent lock. If price runs hard or sentiment changes, some of that supply can come back into the market. So it’s more like conditional scarcity, not absolute scarcity.
Overall, if things continue the way they are and demand shows up even moderately, I’d say $2 to $4 this year is very reasonable, and that $3 to $5 range sits in a really comfortable base case.
At this point, I’m not even watching price that closely. The real signals are volume, fees, buybacks, and whether actual traders are using it over competitors like Hyperliquid.
If those start trending up alongside staking, then this becomes a proper flywheel.
Right now, it feels like ASTER has built the foundation. The next move depends on whether demand shows up to match it, which I trust it will 🤘
A lot of people are still treating this like just another token, but the structure has actually changed quite a bit recently. Emissions have been cut massively, staking is going up, and buybacks are active. That combination matters more than people think.
What this really does first is not send price flying. It removes pressure. When emissions drop that hard and more tokens get staked, the constant sell flow reduces. So instead of wild downside, you usually get a stronger base forming. That’s step one. Stability before expansion.
Now the important part is what happens next.
If this tightening of supply continues and at the same time actual usage grows, meaning more traders, more volume, more fees, then things start getting interesting. Because now you have a loop where activity drives buybacks, buybacks reduce supply, and reduced supply amplifies price movement.
That’s when tokens move fast. Not before.
So I’d break it down like this.
If structure improves but demand stays average, you’re probably looking at something like a slow grind. Maybe somewhere in the $0.8 to $1.5 range. Nothing crazy, but healthy.
If adoption starts picking up and the narrative shifts a bit, then $2 to $4 becomes very realistic. This is where things start validating the thesis.
And if everything aligns properly, meaning strong usage, rising volume, and continued staking growth, then you can start thinking in the $5 to $7 range. That’s the zone where it actually starts competing seriously in the perp DEX space.
Now, if the market goes full risk on and this also captures attention at the same time, then yeah, even higher numbers don’t sound unrealistic anymore. But that’s not something I’d base a plan around, that’s more of an upside scenario.
One thing I think people get wrong here is assuming supply reduction alone will push price up. It doesn’t. It just sets the stage. Demand is what actually moves price.
Also, staking is strong, but it’s not permanent lock. If price runs hard or sentiment changes, some of that supply can come back into the market. So it’s more like conditional scarcity, not absolute scarcity.
Overall, if things continue the way they are and demand shows up even moderately, I’d say $2 to $4 this year is very reasonable, and that $3 to $5 range sits in a really comfortable base case.
At this point, I’m not even watching price that closely. The real signals are volume, fees, buybacks, and whether actual traders are using it over competitors like Hyperliquid.
If those start trending up alongside staking, then this becomes a proper flywheel.
Right now, it feels like ASTER has built the foundation. The next move depends on whether demand shows up to match it, which I trust it will 🤘
💅2
Solid Alpha 💎
Loaded more $XNT this week This post is a good breakdown on why it's alpha 🍻 https://x.com/i/status/2015158835300708590
$XNT just secured a major milestone with its listing on MEXC Global
https://www.mexc.co/en-IN/exchange/XNT_USDT
Right now it is still trading under $2, which in my view is early positioning territory, not late. This is where asymmetry exists. Liquidity is expanding, visibility is increasing, and the market has not fully repriced it yet. Moves like this do not happen in isolation. Listings are catalysts, and strong narratives compound on top of them.
A move toward $10 to $20 is not some stretch scenario. It is a natural expansion if momentum, attention, and narrative alignment continue to build. In crypto, when structure meets story, price discovery accelerates quickly, and most people only realize it once the move is already halfway done.
For those who prefer alternatives, SafeTrade still provides access without the friction of KYC
https://safetrade.com/exchange/XNT-USDT
Now coming to the core thesis. Privacy is not a trend that comes and goes. It is one of the few narratives that has persisted across cycles. Every year, the need becomes more obvious. With increasing surveillance, regulatory pressure, and the general shift toward digital everything, privacy is moving from a niche concern to a mainstream necessity.
That is where $XNT stands out. It is not just riding a narrative. It is positioned inside a narrative that continues to strengthen over time. When you combine strong fundamentals, growing accessibility, and an evergreen sector, you get the kind of setup that can sustain attention and capital flow.
This is not about chasing green candles. This is about recognizing where the next wave of demand is likely to come from and positioning ahead of it. Study the tech, understand the fundamentals, and you will see why $XNT continues to show up as a high conviction play in the privacy space.
https://www.mexc.co/en-IN/exchange/XNT_USDT
Right now it is still trading under $2, which in my view is early positioning territory, not late. This is where asymmetry exists. Liquidity is expanding, visibility is increasing, and the market has not fully repriced it yet. Moves like this do not happen in isolation. Listings are catalysts, and strong narratives compound on top of them.
A move toward $10 to $20 is not some stretch scenario. It is a natural expansion if momentum, attention, and narrative alignment continue to build. In crypto, when structure meets story, price discovery accelerates quickly, and most people only realize it once the move is already halfway done.
For those who prefer alternatives, SafeTrade still provides access without the friction of KYC
https://safetrade.com/exchange/XNT-USDT
Now coming to the core thesis. Privacy is not a trend that comes and goes. It is one of the few narratives that has persisted across cycles. Every year, the need becomes more obvious. With increasing surveillance, regulatory pressure, and the general shift toward digital everything, privacy is moving from a niche concern to a mainstream necessity.
That is where $XNT stands out. It is not just riding a narrative. It is positioned inside a narrative that continues to strengthen over time. When you combine strong fundamentals, growing accessibility, and an evergreen sector, you get the kind of setup that can sustain attention and capital flow.
This is not about chasing green candles. This is about recognizing where the next wave of demand is likely to come from and positioning ahead of it. Study the tech, understand the fundamentals, and you will see why $XNT continues to show up as a high conviction play in the privacy space.
MEXC
Trade Crypto on MEXC | Enjoy Lower Fees and Higher Profits!
Trade XNT/USDT on MEXC Exchange. Find Neptune live price with technical indicators to help you analyze XNT to USDT changes.
❤2🔥1
Solid Alpha 💎 pinned «$XNT just secured a major milestone with its listing on MEXC Global https://www.mexc.co/en-IN/exchange/XNT_USDT Right now it is still trading under $2, which in my view is early positioning territory, not late. This is where asymmetry exists. Liquidity is…»
The trenches are back. No doubt about it.
Most of our 2024 circle is gone. Some retired. Some got wiped out last year.
But the real multicycle players are still here. I’m in their private groups, and activity has spiked hard over the past few days. You can feel the shift.
Every cycle also brings a fresh wave of trenchers stepping in.
This is the moment to lock in.
The signal is clear. Old teams and new ones are back in my DMs for advisory and marketing. That has always marked the start.
We’re back 🔒
Most of our 2024 circle is gone. Some retired. Some got wiped out last year.
But the real multicycle players are still here. I’m in their private groups, and activity has spiked hard over the past few days. You can feel the shift.
Every cycle also brings a fresh wave of trenchers stepping in.
This is the moment to lock in.
The signal is clear. Old teams and new ones are back in my DMs for advisory and marketing. That has always marked the start.
We’re back 🔒
2❤8💅2
Gambled dust here:
0x7f7Fb03E99C8924d5a20e2599822f2D51cfF1110
$140k MC
Wojak's Girlfriend
High risk 🙏
Nfa/dyor
0x7f7Fb03E99C8924d5a20e2599822f2D51cfF1110
$140k MC
Wojak's Girlfriend
High risk 🙏
Nfa/dyor
❤3
Solid Alpha 💎 pinned «Gambled dust here: 0x7f7Fb03E99C8924d5a20e2599822f2D51cfF1110 $140k MC Wojak's Girlfriend High risk 🙏 Nfa/dyor»