:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2021 Oct 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. There were six numbered regions
on the visible disk. Of these, newly numbered region 2891 (N20E78,
Dso/beta) was the most notable while the others were quiet and little
changed. As 2891 rotated onto the north eastern limb it was responsible
for a pair of M1 flares, multiple c-class flares, and a handful of CMEs.
Classification of this newly numbered region is low confidence at this
time due to foreshortening, but there does appear to be a trailing
grouping at the time of this writing. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity will likely continue at low levels 27-29 Oct with a
chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 27 Oct. Chances for
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts will decrease slightly 28-29 Oct
as region 2891 makes it way off of the north eastern limb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal
to moderate levels over 27-29 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Total field ranged 2-6
nT, the Bz component greatest southward deflection was briefly -4 nT,
and wind speeds were ~320-370 km/s. Phi was predominantly in a negative
solar sector while undertaking brief excursions into a positive
orientation throughout the period.
.Forecast...
A mostly ambient-like state is expected to continue through 27 Oct. Weak
enhancements are possible 28-29 Oct due to glancing CH HSS influence.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
Quiet conditions are likely to continue over through 27 Oct. Quiet
levels with isolated unsettled periods are expected 28-29 Oct due to
weak CH HSS effects.
:Issued: 2021 Oct 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. There were six numbered regions
on the visible disk. Of these, newly numbered region 2891 (N20E78,
Dso/beta) was the most notable while the others were quiet and little
changed. As 2891 rotated onto the north eastern limb it was responsible
for a pair of M1 flares, multiple c-class flares, and a handful of CMEs.
Classification of this newly numbered region is low confidence at this
time due to foreshortening, but there does appear to be a trailing
grouping at the time of this writing. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity will likely continue at low levels 27-29 Oct with a
chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 27 Oct. Chances for
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts will decrease slightly 28-29 Oct
as region 2891 makes it way off of the north eastern limb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal
to moderate levels over 27-29 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Total field ranged 2-6
nT, the Bz component greatest southward deflection was briefly -4 nT,
and wind speeds were ~320-370 km/s. Phi was predominantly in a negative
solar sector while undertaking brief excursions into a positive
orientation throughout the period.
.Forecast...
A mostly ambient-like state is expected to continue through 27 Oct. Weak
enhancements are possible 28-29 Oct due to glancing CH HSS influence.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
Quiet conditions are likely to continue over through 27 Oct. Quiet
levels with isolated unsettled periods are expected 28-29 Oct due to
weak CH HSS effects.
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2021 Oct 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 2891 (N19E72, Cao/beta)
produced an M1 flare (Minor) radio blackout at 26/1557 UTC, as well as
several C-class flares. Region 2887 (S27E12, Dhi/beta-gamma) produced
the vast majority of the remainder of the flares throughout the period,
the strongest being a C8/Sf flare at 27/0608 UTC. The remaining four
numbered regions on the visible disk were mostly inactive and unchanged.
Several CMEs were observed in Lasco coronagraph imagery, but they were
all directed in an easterly direction or away from the Earth. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels 27-29 Oct, with a
chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 27 Oct. Chances for
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts will decrease slightly 28-29 Oct
as region 2891 makes it way away from the north eastern limb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal
to moderate levels over 27-29 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued near background levels. Total field
strength averaged near 5 nT and the Bz component had a maximum southward
deflection briefly to -4 nT. Solar wind speeds began the period under
350 km/s before increasing slightly to average just under 400 km/s
around the turn of the UT day. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar
sector.
.Forecast...
A near-background solar wind regime is expected to continue, with weak
enhancements possible due to weak CH HSS influence, through 29 Oct.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
Quiet levels are expected, with isolated unsettled periods possible, on
27-29 Oct due to weak CH HSS effects.
:Issued: 2021 Oct 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 2891 (N19E72, Cao/beta)
produced an M1 flare (Minor) radio blackout at 26/1557 UTC, as well as
several C-class flares. Region 2887 (S27E12, Dhi/beta-gamma) produced
the vast majority of the remainder of the flares throughout the period,
the strongest being a C8/Sf flare at 27/0608 UTC. The remaining four
numbered regions on the visible disk were mostly inactive and unchanged.
Several CMEs were observed in Lasco coronagraph imagery, but they were
all directed in an easterly direction or away from the Earth. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels 27-29 Oct, with a
chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 27 Oct. Chances for
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts will decrease slightly 28-29 Oct
as region 2891 makes it way away from the north eastern limb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal
to moderate levels over 27-29 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued near background levels. Total field
strength averaged near 5 nT and the Bz component had a maximum southward
deflection briefly to -4 nT. Solar wind speeds began the period under
350 km/s before increasing slightly to average just under 400 km/s
around the turn of the UT day. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar
sector.
.Forecast...
A near-background solar wind regime is expected to continue, with weak
enhancements possible due to weak CH HSS influence, through 29 Oct.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
Quiet levels are expected, with isolated unsettled periods possible, on
27-29 Oct due to weak CH HSS effects.
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2021 Oct 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with multiple C-class flares. There
were five numbered regions on the visible disk as region 2888 (S12,
L=252) decayed to plage. Of the 5 remaining regions, region 2887
(S26E04, Dhi/beta-gamma) was the most notable as it developed a few more
intermediate spots and produced a C8.5, the largest of the period.
Region 2891 (N17E67, Cao/beta) continued to rotate into view, but has
changed little while decreasing in overall activity.
At approximately 26/2024 UTC a CME was observed off the Suns SE limb by
LASCO C2. As this CME prorogates outward, it appears to have a very
faint SW component as observed in STEREO-A. The source region is not
clear, but a possible candidate is dimming near region 2887 just after
26/1900 UTC. Initial analysis and model run indicate a glancing blow
late on 30 Oct. However, confidence is low at this time and additional
analysis is needed.
.Forecast...
Solar activity will likely continue at low levels with C-class flares
and a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts 28-30
Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal
to moderate levels over 28-30 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued near background levels. Total field
ranged 2-6 nT, the Bz component was near neutral or northward, and
windspeeds were ~355-405 km/s. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar
sector.
.Forecast...
A near-background solar wind regime is expected to continue through 28
Oct. During the second half of 29 Oct weak influence from CH HSS is
anticipated to bring slight enhancements to the IMF and continue through
30 Oct. Additional enhancement is possible late 30 Oct with the glancing
arrival of the 26 Oct CME if initial modeling holds correct.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
Quiet conditions will likely continue through 28 Oct. Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected 29 Oct due to weak CH HSS effects. Weak CH HSS
effects are expected to continue into 30 Oct resulting in continued
isolated unsettled periods. The chance for an isolated active period is
possible late 30 Oct with the arrival of a glancing blow from the 26 Oct
CME if initial modeling holds correct.
:Issued: 2021 Oct 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with multiple C-class flares. There
were five numbered regions on the visible disk as region 2888 (S12,
L=252) decayed to plage. Of the 5 remaining regions, region 2887
(S26E04, Dhi/beta-gamma) was the most notable as it developed a few more
intermediate spots and produced a C8.5, the largest of the period.
Region 2891 (N17E67, Cao/beta) continued to rotate into view, but has
changed little while decreasing in overall activity.
At approximately 26/2024 UTC a CME was observed off the Suns SE limb by
LASCO C2. As this CME prorogates outward, it appears to have a very
faint SW component as observed in STEREO-A. The source region is not
clear, but a possible candidate is dimming near region 2887 just after
26/1900 UTC. Initial analysis and model run indicate a glancing blow
late on 30 Oct. However, confidence is low at this time and additional
analysis is needed.
.Forecast...
Solar activity will likely continue at low levels with C-class flares
and a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts 28-30
Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal
to moderate levels over 28-30 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued near background levels. Total field
ranged 2-6 nT, the Bz component was near neutral or northward, and
windspeeds were ~355-405 km/s. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar
sector.
.Forecast...
A near-background solar wind regime is expected to continue through 28
Oct. During the second half of 29 Oct weak influence from CH HSS is
anticipated to bring slight enhancements to the IMF and continue through
30 Oct. Additional enhancement is possible late 30 Oct with the glancing
arrival of the 26 Oct CME if initial modeling holds correct.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
Quiet conditions will likely continue through 28 Oct. Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected 29 Oct due to weak CH HSS effects. Weak CH HSS
effects are expected to continue into 30 Oct resulting in continued
isolated unsettled periods. The chance for an isolated active period is
possible late 30 Oct with the arrival of a glancing blow from the 26 Oct
CME if initial modeling holds correct.
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2021 Oct 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 2887 (S26W03,
Dhi/beta-gamma) developed a few more intermediate spots, mainly near the
trailer portion of the region, and produced an M1/1N flare (R1-Minor) at
28/0740 UTC and an M2/1F flare at 28/1028 UTC. This region was also
responsible for several C-class flares early in the period. Four other
numbered regions remain on the visible disk. Region 2891 (N18E60,
Cao/beta) continued to rotate into view, but has changed little while
decreasing in overall activity. Region 2886 (S19W62, Hsx/alpha), Region
2889 (S23E23, Bxo/beta), and Region 2890 (S18W46, Bxo/beta) all
exhibited decay and were inactive throughout the period.
At approximately 26/2024 UTC a CME was observed off the Suns SE limb by
LASCO C2. As this CME propagated outward, it appeared to have a very
faint SW component as observed in STEREO-A. The source region is not
clear, but a possible candidate is dimming near region 2887 just after
26/1900 UTC. Initial analysis and model run indicate a glancing blow
late on 30 Oct. Additional analysis was conducted, but it too resulted
in a low confidence outcome.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with a slight
chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 28 Oct. As most of
the regions continue to decay, conditions are expected to return to very
low levels, with C-Flares likely and a continued slight chance for an
isolated M-class flare.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal
to moderate levels over 28-30 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect a background solar wind
regime. Total field averaged near 3 nT, the Bz component was near
neutral or northward, and wind speeds decreased further to end the
period near 300 km/s. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar sector
with isolated, brief oscillations into the positive sector near the end
of the period.
.Forecast...
A near-background solar wind regime is expected to continue through 28
Oct. During the second half of 29 Oct, weak CH HSS influence is
anticipated to bring slight enhancements to the IMF and continue through
30 Oct. Additional enhancements are possible late 30 Oct with the
possible glancing arrival of the 26 Oct CME, if initial modeling holds
true.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
Quiet conditions are expected to continue through 28 Oct. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected 29-30 Oct due to weak CH HSS effects. The
chance for an isolated active period is possible late on 30 Oct with the
arrival of a glancing blow from the 26 Oct CME. However, confidence
remains low with this CME forecast.
:Issued: 2021 Oct 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 2887 (S26W03,
Dhi/beta-gamma) developed a few more intermediate spots, mainly near the
trailer portion of the region, and produced an M1/1N flare (R1-Minor) at
28/0740 UTC and an M2/1F flare at 28/1028 UTC. This region was also
responsible for several C-class flares early in the period. Four other
numbered regions remain on the visible disk. Region 2891 (N18E60,
Cao/beta) continued to rotate into view, but has changed little while
decreasing in overall activity. Region 2886 (S19W62, Hsx/alpha), Region
2889 (S23E23, Bxo/beta), and Region 2890 (S18W46, Bxo/beta) all
exhibited decay and were inactive throughout the period.
At approximately 26/2024 UTC a CME was observed off the Suns SE limb by
LASCO C2. As this CME propagated outward, it appeared to have a very
faint SW component as observed in STEREO-A. The source region is not
clear, but a possible candidate is dimming near region 2887 just after
26/1900 UTC. Initial analysis and model run indicate a glancing blow
late on 30 Oct. Additional analysis was conducted, but it too resulted
in a low confidence outcome.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with a slight
chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 28 Oct. As most of
the regions continue to decay, conditions are expected to return to very
low levels, with C-Flares likely and a continued slight chance for an
isolated M-class flare.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal
to moderate levels over 28-30 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect a background solar wind
regime. Total field averaged near 3 nT, the Bz component was near
neutral or northward, and wind speeds decreased further to end the
period near 300 km/s. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar sector
with isolated, brief oscillations into the positive sector near the end
of the period.
.Forecast...
A near-background solar wind regime is expected to continue through 28
Oct. During the second half of 29 Oct, weak CH HSS influence is
anticipated to bring slight enhancements to the IMF and continue through
30 Oct. Additional enhancements are possible late 30 Oct with the
possible glancing arrival of the 26 Oct CME, if initial modeling holds
true.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
Quiet conditions are expected to continue through 28 Oct. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected 29-30 Oct due to weak CH HSS effects. The
chance for an isolated active period is possible late on 30 Oct with the
arrival of a glancing blow from the 26 Oct CME. However, confidence
remains low with this CME forecast.