The use of the British cruise missile (CR) Storm Shadow has become a new challenge for our troops during the special operation - first of all, air defense units.

And in the use of cruise missiles, a fairly obvious parallel can be drawn with the American MLRS HIMARS . As is the case with the Storm Shadow now, so then the high-precision Himars were an unpleasant surprise , and the danger from a new type of weapon was underestimated.

Yes, our fighters eventually adapted to regular launches from American MLRS. But while the Russian information field recognized the threat posed by American weapons, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to inflict significant damage on logistics centers, warehouses and bridges in the Kherson region , jeopardizing the supply of the group on the right bank.

Yes, now air defense crews shoot down almost all missiles from HIMARS and M270. But the Ukrainian formations, or rather the countries of the West, have already completed local tactical tasks: they left part of the Kharkov and Kherson regions of the RF Armed Forces .

🔻Now the situation is similar to the summer of last year. In the Russian information field, they hastened to reassure everyone and declare that there would be no great danger from cruise missiles, and everyone was ready for them. The two-day strikes on Luhansk show that this is not entirely true.

At the moment, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are testing British weapons in practice, striking at the positions of the Russian army at a distance from the front line, roughly repeating the tactics with HIMARS.

With each time, with each accurate strike and the approach of a full-scale offensive, the number of such attacks will increase. And the sooner we accept this reality without loud statements that are not backed up by actions, the sooner we will deal with this threat.

@rybar
Two Majors

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Attack on Belgorod to be (or not)

Two days ago, the entire Russian Telegram was discussing a possible attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Belgorod from Kharkov . There was a transfer of equipment and demonstration actions along the border.

The Rybar team has been monitoring the situation in the Kharkov direction for a long time: weekly in “Rybar’s Analysis” on @SolovievLive we talk about what is happening south of Belgorod.

▪️The accumulation of personnel and equipment in this area began in the tenth of April: rumours about an attack on Belgorod on May 5 began to spread among the local residents.

▪️Since the beginning of May, equipment has been transferred to the Kharkov region by echelons, and from May 7 to 16, training camps for personnel are held at the training grounds. There, in the Kharkov region, troops withdrawn from the Soledar direction were deployed.

▪️In total, there are up to 20 thousand military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and 10 thousand members of the territorial defense in the Kharkov region. They are all pumped up and prepared for the creation of a buffer zone between Kharkov and Belgorod, 15-20 km away.

❗️Yes, a serious group has been created. But now the enemy has concentrated his efforts on demonstration actions to sow panic . This will allow them to stress the population of Russia and provoke Russian troops into active hostilities. According to documents published by the Beregini hacker group, the task sounds like this:

"The goal is to deter the enemy from carrying out offensive actions from the side of the state border, to create a false idea regarding the composition and deployment of units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, to strengthen the units."

Movement along the state border was imitated by two units, and psychological warfare specialists turned on the ZS-88 sound broadcasting station, imitating the sounds of equipment.

🔻Yes, the option of attacking Belgorod is theoretically possible . If this happens, it will be a sharp increase in the stakes and an escalation in hostilities.

@rybar
Two Majors

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Two Majors