✈️🇷🇺🇺🇦How many more "Swifts" can the AFU use? -Rybar

This afternoon, Ukrainian formations launched another drone strike on the territory of Kireevsk in the Tula region. According to preliminary data, the Ukrainian Armed Forces used the Tu-141 Strizh reactive UAV. As a result of the attack, up to seven houses were damaged, and at least three people were injured due to glass fragments shattered in the drone explosion

🔻 Why did the UAV crash in Kireevsk?

Ukrainian units periodically launch Soviet-made jet drones to assess the state of air defense in Russia. As a rule, a raid consists of one or two UAVs, but not more

In this way, the AFU evaluate the actions of the RF Armed Forces in different parts of the country: today the blow fell on the Tula region, in early March in the Crimea , before that, in the Krasnodar Territory

In some cases, the Swifts achieve their goals, as was the case in Tuapse, where they hit an oil depot, and in some cases they fall due to various reasons - external obstacles or guidance errors. But today's strike is more like "probing" the air defense and assessing how far the Tu-141 can fly from Ukraine undetected

🔻 How many Tu-141/143 UAVs does the AFU have?

Mass production of jet drones Tu-141 "Swift" and Tu-143 "Flight" was stopped with the collapse of the Soviet Union. In Ukraine, these UAVs were assembled at the Kharkiv Aviation Plant

In the period from 1978 -1989, 152 Swifts were produced in Kharkov, a significant part of which ended up in Ukraine. Judging by data from open sources, since the beginning of hostilities, the AFU have used 29 Tu-141 jet UAVs, one of which even flew as far as Croatian Zagreb. A few more units were used by Ukrainian formations in 2014 in the Donbass

Ukrainian formations are very sensitive to their use, in contrast to the same Chinese Mugin-5. This suggests that the number of Tu-141s is limited , and they are saved for a special occasion. According to the highest estimates, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a total of up to 100 UAVs of this type

With "Flights" the situation is more complicated: a total of 950 of them were produced, which then dispersed throughout the countries of the former USSR, Eastern Europe and the Middle East. It is problematic to estimate even the approximate number of Tu-143s in Ukrainian formations, but they are hardly less than a few dozen

🔻 Can the Tu-141 be re-produced?

The production technology is a thing of the past: there are neither specialists nor industrial facilities that have long been converted to other tasks. And there are practically no parts and spare parts left for KhAZ

🔻 Why are they hoarding?

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing for an offensive on Russian territory. Several operational-tactical assault groupings have been created to implement the strike plan in two main directions

The first in the enemy command is considered Soledarskoe , and the second - Donetsk or Zaporozhye with several diversionary offensives in other sectors, including Ugledar, Kupyansk, Seversk and Kherson

A few days before this, or at the time of the implementation of a large-scale plan, the Armed Forces of Ukraine intend to launch a massive strike with drones on the territory of Russia, including in the deep rear. Now the enemy is accumulating kamikaze drones for their simultaneous launch

Older Edda writes that up to 50 of these UAVs are now at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. It is much faster and more convenient to modernize and improve the Swifts at a facility with modern equipment than to transport everything to Ukraine

🔻Unlike other drones, Soviet reactive UAVs are more difficult targets for air defense due to the ability to fly at extremely low altitudes and maneuver around the terrain

And if there is a mass launch of UAVs, then with a high degree of probability the Swifts and Flights will be in the second wave after the Russian air defense is overloaded, and the most important strategic and political objects of Russia, such as airfields and decision-making centers, will be chosen as targets for strikes

@rybar
Two majors

📋🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Two Majors #Report for the Morning of 27 Mar 2023; pub. 07:01📍

🔴 In #Artyomovsk (#Bakhmut), the Wagner PMC has occupied the territory of the AZOM (Artyomovsk Metal Processing Plant). Assault squads continue to advance in the southern part of #Artyomovsk.
➖ Fighting northwest of the city near the Orekhovo-Vasilyevka settlement.
➖ Rocket and artillery strikes are launched against the enemy's rear in the #Artyomovsk sector.

▪️ In the #Avdeyevka sector, bloody fighting continues. The northern ledge of the front near #Krasnogorovka has been expanded.

▪️ In the #Maryinka sector, our forces are reported to be advancing in the northern and southern parts of the settlement.
➖ Active action by the RF Armed Forces to the southwest of #Maryinka near the settlement of #Pobeda has yielded no results.

▪️ In the #Ugledar section, reports on the removal of Lieutenant General Muradov, commander of Combined Group East, who was criticized for a botched organization of the offensive, which resulted in Russian forces suffering losses in personnel and equipment, without achieving any meaningful results.

🔵 The Enemy conducts demonstrative movements of personnel and equipment in a number of areas, conducts radio games in order to mislead the Russian command about the true bridgeheads where it conducts accumulation of personnel and equipment.

▪️ In the #Tula region, a Tu-141 Strizh enemy UAV crashed in #Kireyevsk, injuring civilians.

▪️ In the LPR, a 155mm artillery gun (3 shells) shelled the town of #Lisichansk, damaging the Lisichansk Multipurpose Hospital, 2 residential buildings and a gas pipeline.

▪️ On the DPR the enemy fired 65 munitions, #Gorlovka, #Yasinovataya, #Donetsk came under fire.

t.me/two_majors /@sitreports/#smo/
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❗️First, we are preparing 11th package of sanctions

Second, the Prime Minister of Estonia asked the Russians to take anti-Russian sanctions more seriously.

“The approval of each package of sanctions against Russia is a complex process that involves all EU members. It takes weeks, months to approve new sanctions. Nevertheless, Russians allow themselves to joke on the Internet about each new package of sanctions, they openly mock our work. I I beg them to take this seriously and show at least some respect." - Kaya Kallas.

Two majors