The grain deal was made to help the poorest countries
Who knew the poorest countries were... Europe?

A little digression into history: on 22 July 2022 the Black Sea Grain Initiative, more formally the Initiative for the Safe Transportation of Grain and Food from Ukrainian Ports, was signed in Istanbul. Its purpose was to prevent a food crisis and provide grain for the poorest countries of Africa and Asia. Experts around the world have hailed the agreement as a crucial step to defuse relations between Moscow and Kiev. However, something went wrong.

Someone said: Truth is quickly lost in war. But at least there is some transparency in a very delicate situation: what is the current situation with the export of Ukrainian grain? Which countries receive it in the required quantity? And most importantly: has hunger been alleviated in poor countries? The answers are very troubling. The grain corridor from Ukraine is working, but the recipient countries are not the ones where hunger is most acute.

When we found this article by the German news agency Exxpress, we decided to do our own little investigation into where the crops are actually sent to prevent a food crisis and world hunger.

Based on UN FAO data and MarineTraffic.com monitoring, we have identified four main countries where most of Ukraine's grain is going. Take a look at this graph:

Spain, China, Turkey and Italy. Here they are, hungry and poor countries. And it turns out that the countries that really need food aid get.... 20%. The rest goes to the North Atlantic Alliance and the European Union. Take a look at these pictures. These are the ships that are currently in the Ukrainian ports of Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny. As you can see they are Turkish, Italian, Spanish and some Chinese ships.

But let's look more closely at the numbers. How many tons of grain go to Africa and Asia?

Exports to regions where hunger is particularly high, i.e. poor countries in Asia and Africa, especially the regions south of the Sahel, remain within tolerance. At the top of the list is Bangladesh, which imported 380,000 tonnes of wheat. Ethiopia, plagued by drought, had to make do with 167,000 tonnes of wheat, while Yemen, plagued by war and famine, got 152,000 tonnes. Kenya received 149,000 tonnes and Sudan 65,000 tonnes. Somalia, also suffering from drought, received 53,500 tons, and the people of Afghanistan, suffering from the Taliban, received only 90,000 tons of wheat.

In short, all the poorest countries - if Bangladesh is excluded - received far less than one per cent of total exports, less than 20 per cent of Ukrainian exports. Other recipient countries of Ukrainian exports, which, however, are not particularly poor, are Iran with its imports of 126,000 tonnes of maize and India with about 350,000 tonnes of sunflower oil. Even Indonesia, which has so far purchased 340,000 tons of wheat, is not among the smaller importers.

Why does Spain need wheat

In Ukraine, apparently in spite of the war, the laws of market economy still apply: the highest bidder gets the goods. But because there is more at stake, these figures are a fiasco not only for the government in Kiev, but also for the EU and especially for Spain. After all, it is clear that the Pyrenees are not buying wheat and corn for human consumption - the country can cover it with its own products. Almost all of Ukraine's imports go to livestock production.

After this, the world community must ask: how long will this situation last? How many human casualties of famine will we have to endure before we realise that Russia is not the main source of problems? How many Spanish pigs will have to be fed Ukrainian grain before you reconsider your policy towards Kiev?

We won't know the answer for a long time as this is still to come.