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Good morning friends.

INDIA RECOUPLED
Global risk off continues, US mkt at 52-w low
Dollar Index surges to 114, UK bonds collapse
Only solace: Brent crude prices slide to $85/bbl
Big question: Will Nifty test the 200 DMA of 17,000
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Sep-Oct is anecdotally a very volatile period
Historically, mkts make reasonable top/bottom in Oct
Indian market still outperforming despite the fall
US at 52-w low, India hardly 7% off its all-time high
Monthly expiry this week and RBI policy on Friday
The asset class to track will be USD-INR
For equity rally, will need to see stability in currency
FIIs net sell Rs 2900 cr, turn net sellers for the month
FIIs in Index futures: Net addition of 36,000 shorts
FII short positioning of 1 lakh contracts near all time high
Level to watch on Nifty: 200 DMA & 200 DEMA of 16,800-17,000
Level to watch on Bank Nifty: 50 DEMA of 38,750
For investors, this will be the best period to invest
((Focus should be on domestic stocks with 0/low debt))

Good morning

DOUBLE BOTTOM OR BEAR MKT?
S&P 500 in US saves 52-w low by 8 points
Big question: Is this it or more pain in US?
Dollar remains strong at 114, Crude down to $84
FII sell number of Rs 5,101 cr largest since June 17
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Nifty defended the first test of 200 DMA of 17,000
First rally today will be vulnerable to be sold into
If yesterday’s low is held, second rally could be bigger
Index can see some short covering if first hour low held
Range of 16,900-17,000 sacrosanct level to defend
FIIs cover 10,000 shorts, net shorts at almost 90,000 now
Fin Nifty weekly expiry today, can see volatility
Bank Nifty’s resistance zone at 20 and 50 DEMA
Bank Nifty’s resistance zone at 38,750-40,000

As indicated in setup, first rally is sold into. Now you need to see if yesterday's low is defended or not

Good morning. Let's do a Youtube live this evening. The feedback is people prefer Youtube over Insta.

I reiterate, the October fall is generally a very good opportunity to buy good stocks.

THE 200 DMA TEST
Dollar continues strength, Dollar Index at 114.5
India finally participating in the Global risk off
Nifty set to open below the 200 DMA of 16,990
Big question: Will the Indian outperformance end?
((SGX Nifty))

TRADE SETUP
Yesterday’s market action extremely weak for bulls
Market now firmly in “Sell the rally” phase
“Sell the rally” intact now till 5 DEMA is reclaimed
Alert: 5 DEMA on Nifty currently at 17,250
Bigger worry for market is decline in Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty has fallen 8.3% after hitting new high this month
Bank Nifty still 2000 points above its 200 DMA of 36,835
Expiry tomorrow, momentum firmly on downside
FIIs have sold nearly $2 bn in last 5 days, fears of ETF selling
USD/INR needs to stabilize before any big equity rally

YouTube live today evening.

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