VOLATILITY ALERT🚨 US dollar-Canadian dollar (USDCAD) caught between oil volatility and BoC caution

The loonie had a turbulent run against the US dollar, with Middle East developments firmly in the driver's seat. Growing optimism around a potential peace deal eased safe-haven demand for the greenback, but falling oil prices quickly emerged as a fresh headwind, and as a major energy exporter, Canada feels every dip in crude.

The short-term bond yield spread between Canada and the US continued to favour the dollar, while the Bank of Canada held rates steady at 2.25%, flagging Middle East tensions and US trade policy as key uncertainties.

This week's data will be telling US PCE on 28 May and Canada's Q1 GDP on 29 May could be the real drivers for where USDCAD heads next.

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