🇺🇸#stocks #us #bonds #cash #strategy
If you had invested $100 in American stocks in 1925 and reinvested all the income, you would now have $57,471 in real terms. In comparison, if you had invested in American bonds, you would have $776, and if you had invested in the money market (cash), you would have $134.
If you had invested $100 in American stocks in 1925 and reinvested all the income, you would now have $57,471 in real terms. In comparison, if you had invested in American bonds, you would have $776, and if you had invested in the money market (cash), you would have $134.
🇺🇸#stocks #us #history #bubble
Goldman: the current market is not much like the dot-com bubble. The companies dominating today are much more profitable and have stronger balance sheets than those that dominated during the dot-com bubble.
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BofA: US market is overheated by historical standards (chart)
Goldman: the current market is not much like the dot-com bubble. The companies dominating today are much more profitable and have stronger balance sheets than those that dominated during the dot-com bubble.
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BofA: US market is overheated by historical standards (chart)
⚠️🌎#stocks #macro #history
overall allocations to equities across the asset management industry are at historically high levels.
Historically, when allocations reach these levels, the proportion of equities in portfolios begins to decline, leading to prolonged periods of market decline, as seen in 2000, 2008, and 2019.
overall allocations to equities across the asset management industry are at historically high levels.
Historically, when allocations reach these levels, the proportion of equities in portfolios begins to decline, leading to prolonged periods of market decline, as seen in 2000, 2008, and 2019.
Forwarded from Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser
🇺🇸#stocks #monetarypolicy #us #analogy
the current market closely resembles 2007's dynamics: two corrections in six months, the second bigger than the first, followed by a rapid recovery to previous highs and the first Fed rate cut in September.
BofA views the first Fed rate cut as a negative event. Historically, the market tends to hit its bottom on average 12 months after the first rate cut #history
ElliotWave: historically, U.S. stocks have experienced significant declines when the Federal Reserve shifts from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle (chart).
Scorpi18|Investment Adviser
the current market closely resembles 2007's dynamics: two corrections in six months, the second bigger than the first, followed by a rapid recovery to previous highs and the first Fed rate cut in September.
BofA views the first Fed rate cut as a negative event. Historically, the market tends to hit its bottom on average 12 months after the first rate cut #history
ElliotWave: historically, U.S. stocks have experienced significant declines when the Federal Reserve shifts from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle (chart).
Scorpi18|Investment Adviser
⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #forecast #history
Shiller ratio (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) is now more expensive than it has been 97% of the time since 1880. Money manager AQR calculates that real stock returns over the 10 years following a 90th decile reading have averaged just 0.5%.
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historical data since 1871 suggests that when the Shiller ratio exceeds 34, the real return of the S&P 500 over the following 10 years tends to be zero (chart).
Shiller ratio (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) is now more expensive than it has been 97% of the time since 1880. Money manager AQR calculates that real stock returns over the 10 years following a 90th decile reading have averaged just 0.5%.
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historical data since 1871 suggests that when the Shiller ratio exceeds 34, the real return of the S&P 500 over the following 10 years tends to be zero (chart).
🇺🇸#stocks #us #history #seasonality
historically, September is the weakest month for the S&P 500.
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historically, European stocks have shown poor performance during the summer months (chart).
historically, September is the weakest month for the S&P 500.
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historically, European stocks have shown poor performance during the summer months (chart).
🇨🇳#stocks #china #bonds #history
China 5-year bond yields is at a historic low.
Historically, 5-year Chinese bond yield below 2% has signaled the imminent start of a strong bull market in the MSCI China.
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valuation of Chinese equities relative to global equities is currently at historically low levels (chart)
China 5-year bond yields is at a historic low.
Historically, 5-year Chinese bond yield below 2% has signaled the imminent start of a strong bull market in the MSCI China.
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valuation of Chinese equities relative to global equities is currently at historically low levels (chart)
🌎#stocks #bonds #retailinvestors
What's new on the premium channel Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser:
1) Database of fraud investigations in Asian public companies — read more
2) US data center market overview by Barclays — research
3) Global metals and coal by BofA — research
4) Equity research LexinFintech (#LX) — read more
5) US Treasury market by Apollo — research
6) Economic outlook by SEB — research
7) China equity strategy by Morgan Stanley — research
8) New update of the watchlist — read more
9) Actual Portfolio (30 Aug. 2024) — read more
10) Update of the library of useful resources for investors — read more
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*subscribe to the premium channel for $5/month.
What's new on the premium channel Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser:
1) Database of fraud investigations in Asian public companies — read more
2) US data center market overview by Barclays — research
3) Global metals and coal by BofA — research
4) Equity research LexinFintech (#LX) — read more
5) US Treasury market by Apollo — research
6) Economic outlook by SEB — research
7) China equity strategy by Morgan Stanley — research
8) New update of the watchlist — read more
9) Actual Portfolio (30 Aug. 2024) — read more
10) Update of the library of useful resources for investors — read more
——————————————
*subscribe to the premium channel for $5/month.
⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #warning #history
JPMorgan: historically, when the S&P 500 had a high valuation based on the Forward P/E ratio, market returns over the following five years were typically close to zero.
—————————————
historical data since 1871 suggests that when the Shiller ratio exceeds 34, the real return of the S&P 500 over the following 10 years tends to be zero (chart).
JPMorgan: historically, when the S&P 500 had a high valuation based on the Forward P/E ratio, market returns over the following five years were typically close to zero.
—————————————
historical data since 1871 suggests that when the Shiller ratio exceeds 34, the real return of the S&P 500 over the following 10 years tends to be zero (chart).
Forwarded from Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser
🇨🇳#stocks #china #impulse #economy
BCA Research: some are comparing the current rally in the Chinese market to that of 2015. At the time, the Chinese government also initiated an economic stimulus cycle, which led to the doubling of the Chinese stock market in just six months. However, during the 2015 stimulus cycle, China generated a credit impulse equivalent to 15% of GDP, or about 27 trillion yuan in today’s terms. In contrast, at its most recent peak (early 2024), China's credit impulse didn’t even reach 5 trillion yuan. Therefore, while the recent surge in Chinese stocks may continue for a few more weeks, it is unlikely to mirror the magnitude or duration of the 2015 episode — report
@scorpi18IA
BCA Research: some are comparing the current rally in the Chinese market to that of 2015. At the time, the Chinese government also initiated an economic stimulus cycle, which led to the doubling of the Chinese stock market in just six months. However, during the 2015 stimulus cycle, China generated a credit impulse equivalent to 15% of GDP, or about 27 trillion yuan in today’s terms. In contrast, at its most recent peak (early 2024), China's credit impulse didn’t even reach 5 trillion yuan. Therefore, while the recent surge in Chinese stocks may continue for a few more weeks, it is unlikely to mirror the magnitude or duration of the 2015 episode — report
@scorpi18IA
⚠️#stocks #us #cash
Goldman: US households' stock allocation = historic high, while debt levels = historic low.
#bubble the last time this occurred was in 1999, when the market rose for several more months before peaking in March 2000, just ahead of the dot-com bubble burst.
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Stifel: US stock market bubble continues to inflate. It will burst in 2025 (chart)
Goldman: US households' stock allocation = historic high, while debt levels = historic low.
#bubble the last time this occurred was in 1999, when the market rose for several more months before peaking in March 2000, just ahead of the dot-com bubble burst.
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Stifel: US stock market bubble continues to inflate. It will burst in 2025 (chart)
🌏#commodity #stocks #world
UBS: historically, commodities show similar risk/return properties as equities, but with sustained periods of strong out- and underperformance
UBS: historically, commodities show similar risk/return properties as equities, but with sustained periods of strong out- and underperformance
🇺🇸#stocks #election #us #seasonality
Goldman: seasonality in U.S. small-cap stocks during election years.
historically, in election years, the U.S. small-cap stock index Russell 2000 has delivered strong performance towards the end of the year.
Goldman: seasonality in U.S. small-cap stocks during election years.
historically, in election years, the U.S. small-cap stock index Russell 2000 has delivered strong performance towards the end of the year.