Scorpi18 | Market Insights
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Insights and analysis of the global financial market by investment advisor Sergio Shalamov.

Note: This is not an investment advice.

Contact: @invoyager

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βš οΈπŸ‡¨πŸ‡³#population #china #macro
WSJ: in China, there is a demographic catastrophe – the fertility rate has fallen to 1.03 children per woman. This is lower than Japan's fertility rate of 1.2 children per woman.
πŸŒ•#gold #hedge #inflation #history
Goldman: gold does not provide long-term protection against inflation.

historically, gold outperforms inflation only about 50% of the time over a 19-year window.

#stocks US equities are a better long-term inflation hedge than gold.
πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί#stocks #banks #europe
EU bank stocks remain too cheap despite the increasing profitability of the banking business.
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EU stocks are at a record low valuation compared to US stocks (chart)

❗️#RBI
πŸ’₯πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί#economy #europe
EU economy is beginning to recover
πŸ’₯πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#buyback #stocks #us #forecast
BofA: company buybacks in the S&P 500 are at historically high levels.

Goldman: increased corporate buybacks are expected to bolster US equities.
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сorporations have ample cash to spend on buybacks (chart)

since 2011, buyback programs have been the primary catalyst for S&P 500 growth (chart)
🌎#commodity #stocks #us #macro
Π‘ommodities/SP500" ratio is at historically low levels
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Nasdaq 100 relative to commodity markets is at historically low levels (chart)
✴️#ETH #crypto #etf
Ethereum ETF has been approved in the US.

SEC’s ETF decision means ETH and ’a lot’ of other tokens are not securities
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Standard Chartered expects Ether ETF approval this week, reiterates year-end target of $8,000.

QCP Capital: Ether could rise to $5000 if a spot ETH-ETF is approved.

Bernstein: the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF will drive a 75% surge to $6,600
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✴️#SOL #crypto #etf
Experts believes Solana will have the next Spot ETF
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Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart stated that after the futures ETF is approved by the CFTC, a spot SOL ETF could be approved within a few years. The new FIT21 law may expedite this process. However, the SEC has made it clear that it considers Solana a security, which could significantly complicate its path to ETF approval.

The SEC’s ETF decision means that Ethereum and many other tokens, such as Solana, are not considered securities.
🌎#copper #forecast #metals
Andurand expects that the price of copper will almost quadruple to $40,000 per tonne in the next few years amid a severe deficit.
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Citi announced the start of the second major bull market in copper this century.
investment banks' forecasts for the Fed funds rate: decline from 2024.
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historically, US stocks have experienced significant declines when the Federal Reserve shifts from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle. (chart)
πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ#NVDA #germany #stocks
Nvidia's market cap now exceeds that of the entire German stock market.
β—οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#stocks #chip #us #macro
SOX/SP500 ratio has surpassed the level of the Dotcom bubble.

*SOX - equity index composed of companies primarily involved in the production and sale of semiconductor products.
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#inflation #us #opinion
Kenneth Rogoff (who predicted the 2008 financial crisis ): another bout of inflation could occur sooner than markets expect β€” read more
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the current inflation dynamics in the US closely resemble those of the 1970s.

the Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s (chart)
πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί#inflation #europe #macro
Eurozone сonsumer inflation is approaching the target of 2%

#monetarypolicy ECB hints at a possible rate cut in the near future = bearish for #EUR
πŸͺ™#silver #macro
gold-to-silver ratio has broken through multi-year lows.
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BofA: there is a significant shortage of silver in the market (chart)
⚠️πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί#metals #europe
BofA: EU depends 100% on imports for many Critical Raw Materials
πŸ›’#oil #forecast #marketsize
Goldman: peak oil demand to occur by 2034 β€” report

Goldman remains optimistic about the petrochemical industry and the production of middle distillates (diesel and jet fuel). #petrochemical #refining #biofuel
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#stocks #us #macro
US small caps now trade at a discount to US large caps for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.

Goldman: stock-picking in the US small-cap sector can be very valuable.
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#NVDA #bubble #analogy
Nvidia's stock currently resembles Cisco's stock in the final phase of the dot-com bubble.
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Nvidia's stock has risen by 22,000% over the past 10 years.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#NVDA #AAPL
Nvidia is now worth more than Apple.