Scorpi18 | Market Insights
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Insights and analysis of the global financial market by investment advisor Sergio Shalamov.

Note: This is not an investment advice.

Contact: @invoyager

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#us #election #biden
Biden intends to run for at the next presidential election in 2024
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น#italy #election #russia #geopolitics
FT: spectre of Russian interference hangs over Italyโ€™s snap elections. Some in the country believe the Kremlin helped to script last monthโ€™s ousting of Mario Draghi

WSJ: The ultimate aim of Kremlin is to bring governments to power in Europe that arenโ€™t committed to supporting Ukraine and thus fracture the Western coalition.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#election #us #today
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#election #us
CNN: If Republicans gain control of one or both chambers, the era of big, progressive bills will likely end. Instead, Biden will be on the defense (use veto power) as Republicans work to undo much of what he accomplished in the first two years of his term

Barron's: Republicans control is expected to mean more federal money for military spending and for traditional energy sectors #oil #gas

Morgan: bear-market bounce could get more fuel from a Republicans win

old saying: "Never Short A Republican"

๐Ÿ’ฅ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #markets #us ##opinion
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#election #us
Republicans are leading

If Republicans gain control - details
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#recession #election #history
U.S. - number of recessions and presidential cycles (sample 1929-2021) = most recessions have coincided with the first year of a presidential term
โ—๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #us #markets #election #history
SP500 has historically (statistics for 60 years) outperformed the market in the 12-month period after a midterm election
๐Ÿ”ฅโš ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#trump #us #election
TRUMP SAYS EXPECTING 'ARREST' ON TUESDAY, CALLS FOR PROTESTS โ€” CNBC
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early: US committee recommends Trump be criminally charged
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #us #election #history
McClellan: the 3rd year is ending, and the 4th year of the U.S. presidential cycle is about to begin = historically, it's the strongest (pre-election) period for U.S. stocks
๐Ÿ’ฅ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #us #election #seasonality
BofA: historically, December is a very strong month for U.S. stocks during the pre-election cycle.
โ—๏ธ๐ŸŒŽ#election #world #geopolitics #history
2024 is expected to be the most politically intense year on record
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #us #seasonality #election
Carson: historically, U.S. stocks tend to start an election year with little enthusiasm, but then growth momentum picks up.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #election #us #history #seasonality
JPMorgan: pre and post US election performance of the SP500 โ€” markets typically experience post-election growth as "pre-election uncertainty" dissipates.

Carson: historically, U.S. stocks tend to start an election year with little enthusiasm, but then growth momentum picks up. (chart)
๐ŸŒ#geopolitics #election
geopolitical calendar from Barclays for the year 2024
โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”
2024 is expected to be the most politically intense year on record (chart)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #election #us #history #seasonality
the historical performance of the S&P 500 during U.S. election years.
โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”
Carson: historically, U.S. stocks tend to start an election year with little enthusiasm, but then growth momentum picks up (chart)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #us #strategy #election #history
over the past 70 years, $1000 invested in the US stock market during Republican presidencies would yield $27,400 today, while it would yield $61,800 during Democratic presidencies. However, those who stayed invested regardless of political affiliation would see $1,680,000 today.
โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”
$10,000 invested in the stock market in January 1992 (chart)

over 200 years, the US stock market has grown by a staggering 755,163-fold (chart)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#election #us
currently, Trump and Biden have equal chances of winning the upcoming presidential election

Ignore politics (chart)
โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”
the historical performance of the S&P 500 during U.S. election years (chart)
Forwarded from Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #election #us #history #seasonality
S&P 500
tends to rise in the year of a US presidential election.
โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”-
JPMorgan: pre and post US election performance of the SP500 (chart)

Carson: historically, U.S. stocks tend to start an election year with little enthusiasm (chart)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #election #us #history #seasonality
Goldman: seasonality in US stocks during election years
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ#stocks #election #us #history #seasonality
Goldman: seasonality in US stocks during election years

In 2024, the S&P 500 is growing significantly faster than in previous cycles.