Scorpi18 | Market Insights
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Insights and analysis of the global financial market by investment advisor Sergio Shalamov.

Note: This is not an investment advice.

Chat for investors: https://t.me/+lLbjdcohKhc5MDBi

Contact: @invoyager

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🌎#commodity #opinion #markets
BBG: global commodity prices may rise due to the beginning of a new Kondratiev cycle*

*showed that commodity prices tended to move in long cycles, with extended waves of rising prices followed by decades when prices moved horizontally
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#bonds #us
major sell-off in US Treasury bonds
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Ray Dalio: US Treasury bonds are a risky

#monetarypolicy western central banks have signaled their intention to continue raising interest rates

BofA: International fund managers have significant long positions in bonds
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί#default #us #europe #forecast
S&P estimates corporate default rate to rise by 2024
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#realestate #us
US regulators asks lenders to help firms with commercial real estate stress

#office owners are particularly struggling as higher borrowing costs complicate financing and tenants pull back given layoffs and the rise of remote work

earlier: nearly $400B of debt on commercial real estate matures this year

BBG: the world’s empty office buildings have become a debt time bomb #world

#CIO
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#banks #lending #cars
US banks are continuing to cut back on auto lending, and some are even completely exiting this business

#COF #CFG #ALLY
🌏#realestate #forecast #office
PGIM Real Estate: office prices are expected to fall more than 25% in Europe and almost 13% in Asia
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New York University and Columbia University: offices in NYC will lose 44% of their pre-pandemic value by 2029 because of the impact of remote work #remote

earlier: at least 40% of workforces would remain remote
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#dividends #metals #energy
dividend yield of metallurgical and energy companies = max since 1980s
πŸ”₯πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί#infalrion #europe #macro
Euro-Area core inflation CPI accelerates again

that may reinforce the ECB's determination to raise interest rates next month #monetarypolicy

ECB may raise rates to 4% and will hold at peak for extended period #forecast
🌎#markets #world #forecast
BlackRock: average expected USD returns from various assets over a 5-year horizon
🌎#markets #world #flow
weekly financial flows - BofA -EPFR (week through June. 28):


WORLD STOCKS = +$1.5B #stocks

WORLD BONDS = +$0.6B #bonds

GOLD = -$1.5B #gold

US BONDS = 20h week in a row of inflows

COMMODITIES = 7th week in a row of outflows #commodity

JAPAN STOCKS = +$7.9B for 4 weeks = strongest monthly inflow in 2 years #japan
πŸ”₯πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#inflation #us #macro
US - PCE and Core PCE (% y/y)

US inflation cools #monetarypolicy

*PCE is one of the Fed's preferred inflation indicators.
β—οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#bonds #us #short
BBG: hedge funds are continuing their active shorting of US government bonds. Aggregate volume of short positions in US 2-year futures and put options = 4-year high
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#lending #us #student
Supreme Court strikes down Biden's plan to forgive student loan debt

New York Fed: student loan borrowers had over $195B in waived payments, likely exceeding $300B now

Deutsche: if students are going to have to resume their payments, that will have an effect on credit card #banks

⚠️#NAVI #SLM #OMF #COF
🌎#monetarypolicy #world #macro
recent changes in interest rates:

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ͺ Sweden
πŸ›’πŸŒŽ#oil #metals #markets #marketsize
the oil market is bigger than the top 10 metal markets