Offshore
Photo
The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: $HIMS acquisition isn’t what a healthy, organically growing company would do.
This is inorganic growth to support guidance as core products aren't able to generate organic growth.
The article talks about triple-digit growth and $450M ARR, but doesn't say that Eucalyptus’ largest FY25 revenue source was weight loss tied to compounded Wegovy.
In short, a growth fueled by a product that no longer exists. Like $HIMS.
The deal costs $1.15B, with ~$900M from undisclosed sources. Cash and FCF won’t cover that, meaning dilution or debt.
We should stop celebrating large, unprofitable acquisitions announced just before earnings and call things as they are.
It’s been long enough. The losses are large enough. I’ll gladly change my view when the company earns it.
Today, it hasn’t.
tweet
RT @WealthyReadings: $HIMS acquisition isn’t what a healthy, organically growing company would do.
This is inorganic growth to support guidance as core products aren't able to generate organic growth.
The article talks about triple-digit growth and $450M ARR, but doesn't say that Eucalyptus’ largest FY25 revenue source was weight loss tied to compounded Wegovy.
In short, a growth fueled by a product that no longer exists. Like $HIMS.
The deal costs $1.15B, with ~$900M from undisclosed sources. Cash and FCF won’t cover that, meaning dilution or debt.
We should stop celebrating large, unprofitable acquisitions announced just before earnings and call things as they are.
It’s been long enough. The losses are large enough. I’ll gladly change my view when the company earns it.
Today, it hasn’t.
🌏We’re continuing our global expansion!
Today, we’re announcing that we’ve agreed to acquire Eucalyptus, an international leader in consumer health. With this deal, we believe we’re on the path to becoming the leading global consumer health platform, where everyone can access the best care for their needs, regardless of where they live.
Healthcare challenges are global, and solving them looks different for everyone. We can’t wait to work together to bring a local approach to a global problem.
More at the link below ⬇️
https://t.co/GITiw1it9z tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: $TMDX flights continue to look extremely strong.
The only "breasih" outcome from this trend is that the increase comes from double-shifting planes replacing third-party flights.
The $TMDX bull case is OCS volume. Replacing one flight with another doesn’t increase OCS usage. It proves demand for the end-to-end service, but it doesn’t automatically increase volume.
Management said they'll always need third-party planes if only for long-distance flights. Reducing them from 20% to 5% would be positive, revenue and fundamental wise, but not a game changer.
Now, if $TMDX is truly running ~28 flights per day in Q1-26 while still keeping ~20% third-party flights…
The Street will be chocked.
tweet
RT @WealthyReadings: $TMDX flights continue to look extremely strong.
The only "breasih" outcome from this trend is that the increase comes from double-shifting planes replacing third-party flights.
The $TMDX bull case is OCS volume. Replacing one flight with another doesn’t increase OCS usage. It proves demand for the end-to-end service, but it doesn’t automatically increase volume.
Management said they'll always need third-party planes if only for long-distance flights. Reducing them from 20% to 5% would be positive, revenue and fundamental wise, but not a game changer.
Now, if $TMDX is truly running ~28 flights per day in Q1-26 while still keeping ~20% third-party flights…
The Street will be chocked.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: Investing is unforgiving. One small mistake can be very costly, and there’s no way back.
$NBIS might be that mistake for me this year.
This isn’t hindsight bias. I said the very next day that selling was a mistake as the stock didn't break my conditions to hold. Sentiment took over and I took a decision I shouldn’t have.
That’s all it takes.
The last week and a half cost me a few salaries in unrealized P&L. One emotinal afternoon cost me months of work.
I’m not here to complain. I’m here to be transparent, to illustrate how critical systems - and respecting them, really are.
Your system exists to protect you from yourself.
Ideas, opinions, convictions can make money. But they can't regularly outperform. Over time, convictions turn into bias, and bias costs.
Systems only can compound over decades. And the single most important rule is simple: don’t break it.
I broke mine. Now I have to work on fixing that.
Mistakes are opportunities to improve.
tweet
RT @WealthyReadings: Investing is unforgiving. One small mistake can be very costly, and there’s no way back.
$NBIS might be that mistake for me this year.
This isn’t hindsight bias. I said the very next day that selling was a mistake as the stock didn't break my conditions to hold. Sentiment took over and I took a decision I shouldn’t have.
That’s all it takes.
The last week and a half cost me a few salaries in unrealized P&L. One emotinal afternoon cost me months of work.
I’m not here to complain. I’m here to be transparent, to illustrate how critical systems - and respecting them, really are.
Your system exists to protect you from yourself.
Ideas, opinions, convictions can make money. But they can't regularly outperform. Over time, convictions turn into bias, and bias costs.
Systems only can compound over decades. And the single most important rule is simple: don’t break it.
I broke mine. Now I have to work on fixing that.
Mistakes are opportunities to improve.
Few $NBIS notes after this quarter.
I'll be the bear, once more.
I continue to believe the market will punish the stock - or not reward it as much as many expect.
Not because the company isn’t excellent, but because it did not reward $GOOG, so why would it reward $NBIS for the same behavior?
Fundamentally, everyone will be bullish. Demand is through the roof, compute was sold out, management is planning to build more sites, etc...
Everything FinX wants to see.
From a market perspective, Q4 CapEx slowed down, guidance talks about ~20% increase of contracted power for FY26 without news on connected power, except for the upgrade from 7 sites to 16 sites.
This means FY26 CapEx will accelerate - just like for everyone else, and won't slow down FY27 as contracted power continues to climb.
More spending. Which was punished across all hyperscalers.
Also note that ARR guidance wasn’t increased, meaning no beat expected hence nothing above expectations and no buildouts closing faster than expected.
Some will say "why would you want more? It doesn't matter, they are executing at their pace"
I disagree. Acceleration is everything, otherwise you'll miss on expectations just like they did.
That revenue miss is due to real-world constraints, as I’ve shared yesterday and for months: you cannot build faster than physics and logistics allow you to.
The issue is that growth factually slows/doesn't accelerate. Growth stocks work on acceleration not stable growth.
The why doesn’t matter, even if you’re supply constrained.
Growth slows, CapEx increases, cash generation decreases, and there are no certainties that demand won’t be fulfilled by other hyperscalers by the time infrastructure is built.
Like many of you, I believe there will be demand and everything will be fine. But today, you cannot know. You can bet on it, but you cannot know.
That is the issue. And that is why the market might react like it did for $GOOG.
I continue to believe the company is excellent and its future is bright. And that the stock won’t be rewarded as much as many expect in the short term.
I’d love to be wrong. tweet
Brady Long
RT @thisguyknowsai: Startups mostly fail from lack of distribution and no PMF.
And it’s hard to have either without knowing something super well.
So as AI saturates markets it will be hard to build a company w/o having experience in that space.
Damn near impossible actually
tweet
RT @thisguyknowsai: Startups mostly fail from lack of distribution and no PMF.
And it’s hard to have either without knowing something super well.
So as AI saturates markets it will be hard to build a company w/o having experience in that space.
Damn near impossible actually
tweet
Offshore
Video
God of Prompt
RT @alex_prompter: Seedance 2.0 tips that actually matter:
→ Adding "cinematic" or "4K" at the end consistently improves output quality
→ "Slow motion" = smoother, more controlled movement
→ First 20-30 words carry the most weight. Put your subject there.
→ For image-to-video: describe MOTION and CAMERA only. Don't re-describe the image.
→ Start with 5-10 second clips. Lock one shot, then expand.
tweet
RT @alex_prompter: Seedance 2.0 tips that actually matter:
→ Adding "cinematic" or "4K" at the end consistently improves output quality
→ "Slow motion" = smoother, more controlled movement
→ First 20-30 words carry the most weight. Put your subject there.
→ For image-to-video: describe MOTION and CAMERA only. Don't re-describe the image.
→ Start with 5-10 second clips. Lock one shot, then expand.
indeed, Seedance 2.0 is crazy
this is literally my first test https://t.co/2ODCp9rwgl tweet
God of Prompt
The list is directionally right. The framing is backwards.
These companies aren’t dying because “AI replaces SaaS.” They’re dying because the value they captured was never defensible.
Grammarly didn’t own writing. It owned the fact that most people couldn’t prompt a model to edit well. Calendly didn’t own scheduling. It owned the friction between two inboxes. Canva didn’t own design. It owned the gap between “I need a graphic” and “I don’t know Photoshop.”
Every tool on this list is a bridge over a gap that’s closing.
But the take everyone keeps missing: the companies labeled “fucked” aren’t all equally dead. The ones sitting on proprietary data and workflow lock-in (Notion, Intuit, Airtable) have 2-3 years to pivot into AI-native platforms. Some of them will.
The ones that are truly finished are the thin wrappers. The ones where the entire product is “we call an API and add a UI.” That’s Jasper. That’s Writer. That’s half the AI startups nobody put on this list because they haven’t launched yet.
The real extinction event isn’t AI replacing SaaS.
It’s personal agents making the entire category of “simple software that does one thing” irrelevant.
The SaaS graveyard won’t be dramatic. It’ll be slow. People just stop renewing. One by one. Quietly.
tweet
The list is directionally right. The framing is backwards.
These companies aren’t dying because “AI replaces SaaS.” They’re dying because the value they captured was never defensible.
Grammarly didn’t own writing. It owned the fact that most people couldn’t prompt a model to edit well. Calendly didn’t own scheduling. It owned the friction between two inboxes. Canva didn’t own design. It owned the gap between “I need a graphic” and “I don’t know Photoshop.”
Every tool on this list is a bridge over a gap that’s closing.
But the take everyone keeps missing: the companies labeled “fucked” aren’t all equally dead. The ones sitting on proprietary data and workflow lock-in (Notion, Intuit, Airtable) have 2-3 years to pivot into AI-native platforms. Some of them will.
The ones that are truly finished are the thin wrappers. The ones where the entire product is “we call an API and add a UI.” That’s Jasper. That’s Writer. That’s half the AI startups nobody put on this list because they haven’t launched yet.
The real extinction event isn’t AI replacing SaaS.
It’s personal agents making the entire category of “simple software that does one thing” irrelevant.
The SaaS graveyard won’t be dramatic. It’ll be slow. People just stop renewing. One by one. Quietly.
gigafucked:
- grammarly
- calendly
- miro
- retool
- webflow
- langchain
- writer
- harvey
- glean
- expedia
- monday
fucked:
- accenture
- intuit
- notion
- jasper
- canva
- alphasense
- postman
- airtable
- talkdesk
- sierra
- zapier
- replit
- solace
probably fucked:
- cursor
- pilot
- clay
- mercor
naively seems fucked but so competent / plugged in they seem to be figuring it out on the fly anyway:
- linear tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Tenobrus (@tenobrus) on X
gigafucked:
- grammarly
- calendly
- miro
- retool
- webflow
- langchain
- writer
- harvey
- glean
- expedia
- monday
fucked:
- accenture
- intuit
- notion
- jasper
- canva
- alphasense
- postman
- airtable
- talkdesk
- sierra
- zapier
- replit
- solace…
- grammarly
- calendly
- miro
- retool
- webflow
- langchain
- writer
- harvey
- glean
- expedia
- monday
fucked:
- accenture
- intuit
- notion
- jasper
- canva
- alphasense
- postman
- airtable
- talkdesk
- sierra
- zapier
- replit
- solace…
Jukan
>> Taiwan, US, and Japan Launch Joint Offensive in AI Memory… PSMC Takes on Prototyping and Manufacturing (Economic Daily News)
- As demand for AI technology continues to expand, significant opportunities are emerging in the memory market. There is a growing consensus that traditional memory design and manufacturing frameworks struggle to meet the bandwidth and efficiency requirements of AI systems, driving active development of next-generation memory technologies. Accordingly, PSMC has partnered with Intel (US) and SoftBank Group (Japan) to develop new memory technologies for AI and high-performance computing (HPC).
- This collaboration brings together the industrial capabilities of three countries: Japan's SoftBank is consolidating design and intellectual property through a company called Saimemory; Intel is providing technical support related to memory architecture and stacking technologies; and Taiwan's PSMC along with Japan's Shinko Electric are responsible for prototyping and manufacturing, with a target to complete prototype development by 2027 and achieve commercial production by 2029.
- Industry observers expect this partnership could disrupt the existing memory market structure dominated by SK hynix, Micron, and Samsung, and contribute to establishing new AI memory standards.
$INTC $MU
tweet
>> Taiwan, US, and Japan Launch Joint Offensive in AI Memory… PSMC Takes on Prototyping and Manufacturing (Economic Daily News)
- As demand for AI technology continues to expand, significant opportunities are emerging in the memory market. There is a growing consensus that traditional memory design and manufacturing frameworks struggle to meet the bandwidth and efficiency requirements of AI systems, driving active development of next-generation memory technologies. Accordingly, PSMC has partnered with Intel (US) and SoftBank Group (Japan) to develop new memory technologies for AI and high-performance computing (HPC).
- This collaboration brings together the industrial capabilities of three countries: Japan's SoftBank is consolidating design and intellectual property through a company called Saimemory; Intel is providing technical support related to memory architecture and stacking technologies; and Taiwan's PSMC along with Japan's Shinko Electric are responsible for prototyping and manufacturing, with a target to complete prototype development by 2027 and achieve commercial production by 2029.
- Industry observers expect this partnership could disrupt the existing memory market structure dominated by SK hynix, Micron, and Samsung, and contribute to establishing new AI memory standards.
$INTC $MU
tweet
Jukan
>> China's Glass Fiber Cloth Industry Gears Up for Another Round of Price Hikes — Monthly Adjustments of 10%–15%, Prices Could Double by Year-End (Economic Daily News)
- As glass fiber cloth supply in China continues to tighten, manufacturers are preparing a new round of price increases at 10%–15% on a monthly basis. Cumulative price increases since 2025 have already exceeded 50%, creating a recurring cycle of supply shortages and rising raw material costs.
- Glass fiber cloth is a key raw material in the production of copper-clad laminates (CCL), and the price hikes are expected to exert upward cost pressure across the entire PCB industry supply chain. Industry participants assess that if these supply constraints persist, prices could double from current levels by the end of 2026.
tweet
>> China's Glass Fiber Cloth Industry Gears Up for Another Round of Price Hikes — Monthly Adjustments of 10%–15%, Prices Could Double by Year-End (Economic Daily News)
- As glass fiber cloth supply in China continues to tighten, manufacturers are preparing a new round of price increases at 10%–15% on a monthly basis. Cumulative price increases since 2025 have already exceeded 50%, creating a recurring cycle of supply shortages and rising raw material costs.
- Glass fiber cloth is a key raw material in the production of copper-clad laminates (CCL), and the price hikes are expected to exert upward cost pressure across the entire PCB industry supply chain. Industry participants assess that if these supply constraints persist, prices could double from current levels by the end of 2026.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Moon Dev
lifetime all access
lifetime all access was a very bad trade for me
people are literally paying $297/mo for it
at this price for lifetime access, that is a massive discount
so i have to remove it, if you want in, get in: https://t.co/FKIm9UgUXx
moon dev https://t.co/6zyqrqfZLo
tweet
lifetime all access
lifetime all access was a very bad trade for me
people are literally paying $297/mo for it
at this price for lifetime access, that is a massive discount
so i have to remove it, if you want in, get in: https://t.co/FKIm9UgUXx
moon dev https://t.co/6zyqrqfZLo
tweet
Offshore
Video
Moon Dev
Your been getting scammed and don’t even realize it
You don’t need a Mac Pro or some expensive hardware
I cracked the code so I’m leaving. https://t.co/Grr4UU373w
tweet
Your been getting scammed and don’t even realize it
You don’t need a Mac Pro or some expensive hardware
I cracked the code so I’m leaving. https://t.co/Grr4UU373w
tweet