Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @The_AI_Investor: Michael Burry asked the wrong question.

"The real question is what the buildout is for and how much money it will generate.

Also, if they do not invest, how much will they lose?

Asking the right question is the first step, and that is what you missed. Instead, you draw your audience into the so called sensible answers to the wrong question.

I work in tech and AI, so I understand what this is about."

A question I have for $ORCL, $GOOG, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN, $NVDA, $CAT, and all the rest, “When does the spending for AI data center buildout actually end?”
It is consuming all your cash flow, you are borrowing, you are financing in ways you never have, apparently because it is so urgent, because it scales?
But if it scales, when does it end?
Now you are engaging in accounting tricks to hide expense, to protect earnings, as the impact is so severe. You will be tortuously adjusting your earnings in a new and sinister ways.
When does it end? - Cassandra Unchained
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
25 Quality Stocks With Estimated 2-Year Forward EPS GROWTH ≥ 15% 💵

1. $GOOG 15%
2. $MA 16%
3. $MSFT 16%
4. $TDG 16%
5. $FER 17%
6. $FTAI 18%
7. $HWM 18%
8. $SNPS 18%
9. $LLY 19%
10. $KLAC 20%
11. $NFLX 20%
12. $NOW 20%
13. $NVDA 20%
14. $CAT 21%
15. $ASML 22%
16. $AMZN 23%
17. $FICO 23%
18. $LRCX 23%
19. $TSM 23%
20. $APP 28%
21. $SNDK 35%
22. $PLTR 38%
23. $ALAB 39%
24. $MELI 39%
25. $GEV 51%
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Moon Dev
This is the video that gets my account deleted

So I’m just going to leave before that https://t.co/ZDZcZh7Bm2
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The Transcript
$GM CFO: GM restored 8–10% North America margins 12–18 months earlier than investors expected

“Fast forward a year, we've obviously been impacted pretty heavily by tariffs. Over $3 billion last year, we've signaled $3-$4 billion of tariffs this year… and then we just came out last week and talked about restoring back to our 8 to 10% margins in North America, probably about 12 to 18 months ahead of when most investors would have thought we were going to get back there.”
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: $FICO & Recent Refinancing Activity

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) https://t.co/TulQYYXGDi

Sharing some thoughts on $FICO 👇🏽

Photo 1: $FICO now trades 32x NTM earnings estimates. Just four days ago, ahead of its Q1 2026 report, it traded 39x. $FICO is down ~5% in the past 5 days, so most of that multiple contraction (~18%) is due to aggressive growth in earnings.

Photo 2: Since January 2023, $FICO has a total return of 147.50% or a 34.3% CAGR despite the multiple expanding only 11.83% since then. In other words, nearly all of the return over that time period has been driven by strong earnings growth.

Photo 3: Since September 2019, $FICO has a total return of 355.80% or a 26.9% CAGR despite the multiple contracting -5.81% since then. Again, an incredible return in the face of slight multiple compression due to strong earnings growth.

Photo 4: Since September 2024, $FICO is down -24.20% while its multiple was halved, contracting -50.78%. While $FICO dropped during that period, again you see the impact strong earnings growth can have even in the face of severe multiple compression.

𝘉𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘰𝘨𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳, 𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦’𝘴 𝘢 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘱𝘩𝘳𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘴𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘢𝘴 𝘋𝘦𝘷 𝘒𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘴𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘢 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘤𝘳𝘰𝘴𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘥𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘴:

💬 The biggest mistake investors make is focusing on the nominal P/E ratio of a high-quality company today. If you have a business that can grow its free cash flow at 15% or 20% for a decade or two, the ‘expensive’ 30x or 40x multiple you are paying today is actually a significantly lower multiple on the earnings power just a few years out. The market consistently underestimates the duration of growth for these ‘toll-bridge’ monopolies.
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Today, $FICO trades at a more than reasonable PEG of ~1.41x.

My research also leads me to believe $FICO could have an $ASML moment within the next five years.

Here’s what I mean by that. Those of us who have been bullish on $ASML for the last several years knew, with a high degree of certainty, that $ASML would eventually see a surge in orders as demand naturally had to increase to support the advancement of AI and chip production at an unprecedented scale.

Yes, it wasn’t linear for $ASML, and for a few years it lagged many semiconductor players. Yet, what happened? In $ASML’s latest report, Q4 net bookings came in at €13.13B (+86% YoY) versus estimates of €6.85B — nearly double. And of course the stock surged +93% in just the past year.

At some point within the next five years, I anticipate that mortgage rates (among other things) will fall meaningfully enough to drive a surge — similar to $ASML net bookings spike — in refinance demand, alongside higher origination volumes from lower rates, all coupled with price increases.

That combination creates a “twin engine” of higher volumes + higher prices, which could translate into materially higher earnings and free cash flow than what current estimates imply, especially over the long term.

Here’s the catch: nobody knows when this will happen (similar to $ASML). However, those who are patient may be rewarded.

If you deeply understood $ASML importance and the inevitable, much greater demand for its machines, you were able to hold with confidence.

$FICO rhymes.

Two different “toll booths” in two different sectors — yet potentially very similar dynamics. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: $META smart glasses have a ~4h battery life but are designed to stay on your nose all day.

$GOOG, $AMZN, OpenAI and others are all building wearables meant to live on your face. And their battery life remains weak. Real weak.

The only solution is $NOD's chips 👇

https://t.co/ubqVRFDqvZ - The Few Bets That Matter
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The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: $HIMS acquisition isn’t what a healthy, organically growing company would do.

This is inorganic growth to support guidance as core products aren't able to generate organic growth.

The article talks about triple-digit growth and $450M ARR, but doesn't say that Eucalyptus’ largest FY25 revenue source was weight loss tied to compounded Wegovy.

In short, a growth fueled by a product that no longer exists. Like $HIMS.

The deal costs $1.15B, with ~$900M from undisclosed sources. Cash and FCF won’t cover that, meaning dilution or debt.

We should stop celebrating large, unprofitable acquisitions announced just before earnings and call things as they are.

It’s been long enough. The losses are large enough. I’ll gladly change my view when the company earns it.

Today, it hasn’t.

🌏We’re continuing our global expansion!

Today, we’re announcing that we’ve agreed to acquire Eucalyptus, an international leader in consumer health. With this deal, we believe we’re on the path to becoming the leading global consumer health platform, where everyone can access the best care for their needs, regardless of where they live.

Healthcare challenges are global, and solving them looks different for everyone. We can’t wait to work together to bring a local approach to a global problem.

More at the link below ⬇️
https://t.co/GITiw1it9z - Hims & Hers Comms
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The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: $TMDX flights continue to look extremely strong.

The only "breasih" outcome from this trend is that the increase comes from double-shifting planes replacing third-party flights.

The $TMDX bull case is OCS volume. Replacing one flight with another doesn’t increase OCS usage. It proves demand for the end-to-end service, but it doesn’t automatically increase volume.

Management said they'll always need third-party planes if only for long-distance flights. Reducing them from 20% to 5% would be positive, revenue and fundamental wise, but not a game changer.

Now, if $TMDX is truly running ~28 flights per day in Q1-26 while still keeping ~20% third-party flights…

The Street will be chocked.
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