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The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: $ANET posted an excellent quarter.
Revenues up ~29%, gross/net margins at 63% & 38%, Q1-26 guidance pointing to ~30% YoY.
Shares up 9% post-earnings at ~21x sales.
Deserved.
$ALAB posted an even better one.
Revenues up 91%, with 75% gross and 17% net margins, Q1-26 guidance at 83% growth.
Shares down 28% since earnings at ~26x sales.
$ANET is more established, slower growing but higher margin than $ALAB. Both are critical to powering the next AI data centers as CapEx continues to skyrocket.
But $ALAB made the “mistake” of acquiring two companies, increasing OpEx and salaries to expand capabilities and deliver more value to customers.
Less short-term cash generation.
Exactly what the market has been punishing lately.
Still, if $ANET reflects how the market wants to price hardware names - and peers suggest it does, then $ALAB is not trading where it should.
You don’t grow ~90% before production ramps on flagship products and trade at 26x sales, while a ~30% grower in the same ecosystem facing the same risk case - $NVDA networking system, trades at 21x.
Choose your imposter.
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RT @WealthyReadings: $ANET posted an excellent quarter.
Revenues up ~29%, gross/net margins at 63% & 38%, Q1-26 guidance pointing to ~30% YoY.
Shares up 9% post-earnings at ~21x sales.
Deserved.
$ALAB posted an even better one.
Revenues up 91%, with 75% gross and 17% net margins, Q1-26 guidance at 83% growth.
Shares down 28% since earnings at ~26x sales.
$ANET is more established, slower growing but higher margin than $ALAB. Both are critical to powering the next AI data centers as CapEx continues to skyrocket.
But $ALAB made the “mistake” of acquiring two companies, increasing OpEx and salaries to expand capabilities and deliver more value to customers.
Less short-term cash generation.
Exactly what the market has been punishing lately.
Still, if $ANET reflects how the market wants to price hardware names - and peers suggest it does, then $ALAB is not trading where it should.
You don’t grow ~90% before production ramps on flagship products and trade at 26x sales, while a ~30% grower in the same ecosystem facing the same risk case - $NVDA networking system, trades at 21x.
Choose your imposter.
https://t.co/l9nGdNNrQu tweet
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The Transcript
Booking Holdings CEO: "We are pleased to report strong results for 2025..."
$BKNG: +2% AH https://t.co/dMikldTYDY
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Booking Holdings CEO: "We are pleased to report strong results for 2025..."
$BKNG: +2% AH https://t.co/dMikldTYDY
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @JoeValue: NOW FREE - My highest conviction idea 🇯🇵
Tobila Systems $4441.T $4441.JP
Smoak Capital (@dsmoak98) just published an excellent summary (link below).
Daniel at Smoak Capital has an exceptional 37.4% CAGR since 2018!
Smoak Capital owns 7.3% of Tobila.
Disclaimer: Personal opinions only, not investment advice.
Links to Smoak Capital Letter and my own writeup below:
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RT @JoeValue: NOW FREE - My highest conviction idea 🇯🇵
Tobila Systems $4441.T $4441.JP
Smoak Capital (@dsmoak98) just published an excellent summary (link below).
Daniel at Smoak Capital has an exceptional 37.4% CAGR since 2018!
Smoak Capital owns 7.3% of Tobila.
Disclaimer: Personal opinions only, not investment advice.
Links to Smoak Capital Letter and my own writeup below:
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Fiscal.ai
Booking Holdings v. Airbnb
Total Bookings:
$BKNG: $186B, +16.3% YoY
$ABNB: $91B, +15.7% YoY https://t.co/u92vEzzHSC
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Booking Holdings v. Airbnb
Total Bookings:
$BKNG: $186B, +16.3% YoY
$ABNB: $91B, +15.7% YoY https://t.co/u92vEzzHSC
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Fiscal.ai
DoorDash just reported its largest jump in orders ever.
Total Orders: 903M, +32% YoY
$DASH https://t.co/VQ4KE87XET
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DoorDash just reported its largest jump in orders ever.
Total Orders: 903M, +32% YoY
$DASH https://t.co/VQ4KE87XET
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Fiscal.ai
Carvana just reported its lowest gross profit per unit in 8 quarters.
$CVNA: -23.3% AH https://t.co/oRq8t8TGNO
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Carvana just reported its lowest gross profit per unit in 8 quarters.
$CVNA: -23.3% AH https://t.co/oRq8t8TGNO
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @brentmuio: TIL Mixue Ice Cream & Tea https://t.co/8s3DQmETv4 is the largest restaurant chain globally by store count. 45k stores vs 42k for $MCD and 40k for $SBUX
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RT @brentmuio: TIL Mixue Ice Cream & Tea https://t.co/8s3DQmETv4 is the largest restaurant chain globally by store count. 45k stores vs 42k for $MCD and 40k for $SBUX
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Clark Square Capital
Love this case study h/t @dirtcheapstocks
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Love this case study h/t @dirtcheapstocks
My favorite Buffett investment: Delta Duck Club.
- $2.8mm market cap (4x earnings).
- 13% dividend yield.
- Oilfield remained active for 50+ years. https://t.co/hNiLZV2aBS tweet
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Fiscal.ai
Customers are spending more on Figma every year... a lot more.
The design and prototyping software just reported a net dollar retention rate of 136%.
$FIG https://t.co/Mw6euDlQyN
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Customers are spending more on Figma every year... a lot more.
The design and prototyping software just reported a net dollar retention rate of 136%.
$FIG https://t.co/Mw6euDlQyN
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @Basalt_Capital: I recently invested in Espec (https://t.co/8Glmwuvv0Q). Espec is the #1 producer of environmental test chambers with a global market share of 30%. These chambers assess the impact of temperature and humidity fluctuations on electronic components and systems throughout R&D. Management prioritizes higher-margin laboratory testing services over lumpy equipment sales and focuses on rapidly evolving AI semiconductors, autonomous driving, and satellite communications markets. Orders received in the target markets increased 83% YoY in the first half of 2025. Last November, Espec announced a JPY 3.5 billion stock buyback, equivalent to 4% of the total shares. I see 60-70% valuation upside. I think investors underestimate the improvements in Espec’s business model, growth opportunities, and capital allocation.
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RT @Basalt_Capital: I recently invested in Espec (https://t.co/8Glmwuvv0Q). Espec is the #1 producer of environmental test chambers with a global market share of 30%. These chambers assess the impact of temperature and humidity fluctuations on electronic components and systems throughout R&D. Management prioritizes higher-margin laboratory testing services over lumpy equipment sales and focuses on rapidly evolving AI semiconductors, autonomous driving, and satellite communications markets. Orders received in the target markets increased 83% YoY in the first half of 2025. Last November, Espec announced a JPY 3.5 billion stock buyback, equivalent to 4% of the total shares. I see 60-70% valuation upside. I think investors underestimate the improvements in Espec’s business model, growth opportunities, and capital allocation.
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