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Lumida Wealth Management
WHY NOBODY IS BUYING ENOUGH COMPUTE
Anthropic went from zero to 100M to 1B to 10B in three years. Clean 10x every year.
So why aren't they buying 10 trillion in compute right now?
Here's the actual problem.
Dario: "You're pretty sure AGI hits in 1-2 years. When it does you need massive compute to serve what's basically a country of geniuses in a datacenter. Trillions in revenue coming.
But datacenters take two years to build.
So if you're wrong by one year on timing you're just dead. Bankrupt. Done.
Breakthrough comes 2028 instead of 2027? Dead.
Economy takes 3 years to adopt instead of 1? Dead.
No hedge exists for a trillion dollar mistimed bet.
So everyone's in this insane spot where they KNOW what's coming but literally cannot bet their full stack on it.
Buy hundreds of billions not trillions.
Accept you might not have enough when it hits.
Wild part - being 12 months early or late on the biggest prediction ever means you don't exist to find out if you were right."
Here are all the highlights from the recent interview of @DarioAmodei with @dwarkesh_sp
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WHY NOBODY IS BUYING ENOUGH COMPUTE
Anthropic went from zero to 100M to 1B to 10B in three years. Clean 10x every year.
So why aren't they buying 10 trillion in compute right now?
Here's the actual problem.
Dario: "You're pretty sure AGI hits in 1-2 years. When it does you need massive compute to serve what's basically a country of geniuses in a datacenter. Trillions in revenue coming.
But datacenters take two years to build.
So if you're wrong by one year on timing you're just dead. Bankrupt. Done.
Breakthrough comes 2028 instead of 2027? Dead.
Economy takes 3 years to adopt instead of 1? Dead.
No hedge exists for a trillion dollar mistimed bet.
So everyone's in this insane spot where they KNOW what's coming but literally cannot bet their full stack on it.
Buy hundreds of billions not trillions.
Accept you might not have enough when it hits.
Wild part - being 12 months early or late on the biggest prediction ever means you don't exist to find out if you were right."
Here are all the highlights from the recent interview of @DarioAmodei with @dwarkesh_sp
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @CapexAndChill: $APP just posted ~70% YoY revenue growth and $4.5B in EBITDA but it is more than just an AI story. AppLovin is executing he most sophisticated legal arbitrage in the history of mobile tech. While the entire ad industry was fuming about $APPL's privacy changes and the death of IDFA AppLovin didn't just build a better algorithm they built a legal and technical bunker with MAX.
Here is the backstory. Apple bans 3P tracking which is defined as linking user data across different companies but AppLovin acquired the mediation layer MAX which sits inside the publisher’s app as core infrastructure. Because they own the code that runs the ad auction they legally reclassified themselves from a 3P tracker to a 1P service provider. This allows them to siphon granular user data from the app directly to their bidder via local device memory bypassing the OS level network interception that Apple uses to police tracking.
They call this internal syncing rather than cross app tracking and it gives them a key view in ~1B daily users. They further fortified this by forcing publishers into a joint controller status where the publisher takes the liability for collecting consent while AppLovin gets the data access.
Management goes on earnings calls and credits their Axon AI for the 84% net income growth and they aren’t lying but the AI is mainly winning because it is the only model being fed a firehose of high fidelity data that is supposed to be not possible to access.
AppLovin has evolved from just an ad network to a walled garden built inside Apple’s own backyard and unless Apple decides to break the entire programmatic economy by blocking SDK to SDK memory communication this money printer is structural.
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RT @CapexAndChill: $APP just posted ~70% YoY revenue growth and $4.5B in EBITDA but it is more than just an AI story. AppLovin is executing he most sophisticated legal arbitrage in the history of mobile tech. While the entire ad industry was fuming about $APPL's privacy changes and the death of IDFA AppLovin didn't just build a better algorithm they built a legal and technical bunker with MAX.
Here is the backstory. Apple bans 3P tracking which is defined as linking user data across different companies but AppLovin acquired the mediation layer MAX which sits inside the publisher’s app as core infrastructure. Because they own the code that runs the ad auction they legally reclassified themselves from a 3P tracker to a 1P service provider. This allows them to siphon granular user data from the app directly to their bidder via local device memory bypassing the OS level network interception that Apple uses to police tracking.
They call this internal syncing rather than cross app tracking and it gives them a key view in ~1B daily users. They further fortified this by forcing publishers into a joint controller status where the publisher takes the liability for collecting consent while AppLovin gets the data access.
Management goes on earnings calls and credits their Axon AI for the 84% net income growth and they aren’t lying but the AI is mainly winning because it is the only model being fed a firehose of high fidelity data that is supposed to be not possible to access.
AppLovin has evolved from just an ad network to a walled garden built inside Apple’s own backyard and unless Apple decides to break the entire programmatic economy by blocking SDK to SDK memory communication this money printer is structural.
$APP's ~20% sell off reflects a fear of commoditization, yet investors are completely ignoring that the company’s Q1 guidance for sequential growth is still strong. Q1 is typically the weakest quarter where ad spend contracts, so guiding for a raise to $1.745 billion confirms that the growth engine is showing incredible resilience from gaming cycles.
This disconnect is even more glaring by the fact that the ecom solution driving these numbers is still effectively in a closed beta referral only pilot phase with less than 1% market penetration. So the current 66% revenue growth is being achieved has not seen the effects of the general availability later this year.
The new moat they are building is the generative creative capability that solves one of the biggest bottlenecks for non-gaming advertisers which is the inability to produce high performance video assets at scale. AppLovin is working on automating the role of an ad agency and unlocks a long tail of millions of SMB merchants who previously couldn't access mobile inventory.
This is a rare dislocation where the market is selling peak gaming while the company is executing the initial phase of automated commerce. AppLovin's own cash flow will aggressively create a valuation flow via buybacks and continued execution. tweet
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CapexAndChill (@CapexAndChill) on X
$APP's ~20% sell off reflects a fear of commoditization, yet investors are completely ignoring that the company’s Q1 guidance for sequential growth is still strong. Q1 is typically the weakest quarter where ad spend contracts, so guiding for a raise to $1.745…
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God of Prompt
RT @rryssf_: Stanford and Caltech researchers just published the first comprehensive taxonomy of how llms fail at reasoning
not a list of cherry-picked gotchas. a 2-axis framework that finally lets you compare failure modes across tasks instead of treating each one as a random anecdote
the findings are uncomfortable
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RT @rryssf_: Stanford and Caltech researchers just published the first comprehensive taxonomy of how llms fail at reasoning
not a list of cherry-picked gotchas. a 2-axis framework that finally lets you compare failure modes across tasks instead of treating each one as a random anecdote
the findings are uncomfortable
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Clark Square Capital
RT @pernasresearch: Anyone built anything cool with Claude yet?
Couple tools we have made:
8k context screener
Trade Journal scraper
In total > 10k lines of code and took a couple of days to make.
Curious what everyone else is making.
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RT @pernasresearch: Anyone built anything cool with Claude yet?
Couple tools we have made:
8k context screener
Trade Journal scraper
In total > 10k lines of code and took a couple of days to make.
Curious what everyone else is making.
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Offshore
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The Transcript
RT @TheTranscript_: This is all you need for a complete coverage of the Q4 25 earnings season
Link: https://t.co/pgEoID6dIq https://t.co/Qp9DRPf2p4
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RT @TheTranscript_: This is all you need for a complete coverage of the Q4 25 earnings season
Link: https://t.co/pgEoID6dIq https://t.co/Qp9DRPf2p4
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: 15 Quality Stocks With Forward FCF Yields Above the Risk-Free Rate (3-Month T-Bill: 3.60%) 💵
1. $FICO 3.61%
2. $NFLX 3.61%
3. $TDG 3.65%
4. $MA 3.78%
5. $MCO 3.84%
6. $MSCI 4.03%
7. $CPRT 4.07%
8. $NVO 4.09%
9. $V 4.12%
10. $APP 4.32%
11. $MANH 4.53%
12. $SPGI 5.04%
13. $NOW 5.30%
14. $INTU 6.22%
15. $CSU 7.10%
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RT @DimitryNakhla: 15 Quality Stocks With Forward FCF Yields Above the Risk-Free Rate (3-Month T-Bill: 3.60%) 💵
1. $FICO 3.61%
2. $NFLX 3.61%
3. $TDG 3.65%
4. $MA 3.78%
5. $MCO 3.84%
6. $MSCI 4.03%
7. $CPRT 4.07%
8. $NVO 4.09%
9. $V 4.12%
10. $APP 4.32%
11. $MANH 4.53%
12. $SPGI 5.04%
13. $NOW 5.30%
14. $INTU 6.22%
15. $CSU 7.10%
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The Few Bets That Matter
The weekly 50 is the uptrend golden indicator
$NVDA is below its w50
$META is below its w50
$MSFT is below its w50
$AMZN is below its w50
$HOOD is below its w50
$PLTR is below its w50
$UBER is below its w50
$NFLX is below its w50
$HOOD is below its w50
$ADBE is below its w50
$DUOL is below its w50
& many other 2025 leaders ...
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The weekly 50 is the uptrend golden indicator
$NVDA is below its w50
$META is below its w50
$MSFT is below its w50
$AMZN is below its w50
$HOOD is below its w50
$PLTR is below its w50
$UBER is below its w50
$NFLX is below its w50
$HOOD is below its w50
$ADBE is below its w50
$DUOL is below its w50
& many other 2025 leaders ...
https://t.co/TVqbdhKTn4 tweet
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The Few Bets That Matter (@WealthyReadings) on X
Selling Risks, Buying Defensives - The Contratian Trade
The Few Bets That Matter
This won't be applied.
They'll realize in Senate or before 2028 how impossible and self destructive that is. I still have enough faith in our European leader to believe that.
Call me a dreamer.
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This won't be applied.
They'll realize in Senate or before 2028 how impossible and self destructive that is. I still have enough faith in our European leader to believe that.
Call me a dreamer.
BREAKING: Netherlands’ House of Representatives has approved a 36% tax on unrealized capital gains. tweet
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The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) on X
BREAKING: Netherlands’ House of Representatives has approved a 36% tax on unrealized capital gains.
The Few Bets That Matter
My watchlist today has nothing to do to what it was last year... Sell tech, buy defensives.
$MRNA
$NVO
$CROX
$PFE
$DAR
$NTR
$SWBI
$TWST
$PEP
$TGT
$ENPH
$COP
$DECK
I'm probably the only one around here sharing this stuff nowadays 👇
https://t.co/jQRKnEOC4d
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My watchlist today has nothing to do to what it was last year... Sell tech, buy defensives.
$MRNA
$NVO
$CROX
$PFE
$DAR
$NTR
$SWBI
$TWST
$PEP
$TGT
$ENPH
$COP
$DECK
I'm probably the only one around here sharing this stuff nowadays 👇
https://t.co/jQRKnEOC4d
The weekly 50 is the uptrend golden indicator
$NVDA is below its w50
$META is below its w50
$MSFT is below its w50
$AMZN is below its w50
$HOOD is below its w50
$PLTR is below its w50
$UBER is below its w50
$NFLX is below its w50
$HOOD is below its w50
$ADBE is below its w50
$DUOL is below its w50
& many other 2025 leaders ... tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
The Few Bets That Matter (@WealthyReadings) on X
Trash, Dirt & Guns: Unsexy Stocks With Large Upside
Offshore
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The Transcript
RT @TheTranscript_: $DIS CEO: "Zootopia 2 also became Hollywood's highest-grossing animated film ever and one of the top 10 highest-grossing films of all time, earning more than $1.7 billion, and firmly establishing itself as a popular new franchise." https://t.co/85tlJeGCGh
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RT @TheTranscript_: $DIS CEO: "Zootopia 2 also became Hollywood's highest-grossing animated film ever and one of the top 10 highest-grossing films of all time, earning more than $1.7 billion, and firmly establishing itself as a popular new franchise." https://t.co/85tlJeGCGh
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Microsoft & Amazon — Price vs Operating Cash Flow 💵
$MSFT currently trades at a ~28% discount to its operating cash flow trend.
$AMZN trades at a ~29% discount to its operating cash flow trend.
When stock price diverges from cash generation, it’s worth taking a closer look. https://t.co/nwRG8sbrJw
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Microsoft & Amazon — Price vs Operating Cash Flow 💵
$MSFT currently trades at a ~28% discount to its operating cash flow trend.
$AMZN trades at a ~29% discount to its operating cash flow trend.
When stock price diverges from cash generation, it’s worth taking a closer look. https://t.co/nwRG8sbrJw
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