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God of Prompt
RT @rryssf_: new paper argues LLMs fundamentally cannot replicate human motivated reasoning because they have no motivation
sounds obvious once you hear it. but the implications are bigger than most people realize
this quietly undermines an entire category of AI political simulation research
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RT @rryssf_: new paper argues LLMs fundamentally cannot replicate human motivated reasoning because they have no motivation
sounds obvious once you hear it. but the implications are bigger than most people realize
this quietly undermines an entire category of AI political simulation research
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Clark Square Capital
RT @Reignots: Small GungHo buyback is the right direction today through needs more pushing from Strategic to get the old board moving. Meanwhile $GRVY now sits on a ballooning $62/share of cash with a $66.50 stock price. There is no downside, only (lots of) upside. https://t.co/zt92YLpLfV
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RT @Reignots: Small GungHo buyback is the right direction today through needs more pushing from Strategic to get the old board moving. Meanwhile $GRVY now sits on a ballooning $62/share of cash with a $66.50 stock price. There is no downside, only (lots of) upside. https://t.co/zt92YLpLfV
Fun little pullback on what appears to be algo selling into a thin, thin stock - will you let <$2MM of volume (so likely <$400K of actual position change) convince you this company is worth 5% lower today, and <1x P/E ex-cash? Added ~25% to long today. Will explode higher. $GRVY tweet
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Brady Long
AI just built me a full marketing deck while I slept.
The gap between people asking AI questions vs delegating entire projects is getting massive and most people don't even know autonomous agents exist yet.
I tested SkyBot for 3 days. Here's what actually happened 🧵 https://t.co/MRgTubOVV3
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AI just built me a full marketing deck while I slept.
The gap between people asking AI questions vs delegating entire projects is getting massive and most people don't even know autonomous agents exist yet.
I tested SkyBot for 3 days. Here's what actually happened 🧵 https://t.co/MRgTubOVV3
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The Few Bets That Matter
In hindsight, $NBIS quarter’s highlight comes from its CapEx. Not just CapEx, but how it is financed.
We’re talking about a ~$23B company planning ~$18B CapEx while publicly stating they expect to finance 60% organically via FCF, cash & commitments.
They also have clients financially committing before delivery to enable buildouts; a strong proof of trust especially when those are $META and $MSFT.
Last but not least, the remaining 40% could be financed through equity-backed debt, one of the cheapest funding sources - dilution being even cheaper but paid in later.
I'd remain cautious on the sector and wouldn’t expect $NBIS to outperform if the leaders don’t but the company has a very impressive financing roadmap, healthier than many hyperscalers at this stage.
This has always been a core part of the bull case.
But remaining that healthy through end of 2026 is pretty impressive. The market probably loves this, although I still believe there are other valid concerns short term.
Still, getting out ahead CapEx wise is impressive.
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In hindsight, $NBIS quarter’s highlight comes from its CapEx. Not just CapEx, but how it is financed.
We’re talking about a ~$23B company planning ~$18B CapEx while publicly stating they expect to finance 60% organically via FCF, cash & commitments.
They also have clients financially committing before delivery to enable buildouts; a strong proof of trust especially when those are $META and $MSFT.
Last but not least, the remaining 40% could be financed through equity-backed debt, one of the cheapest funding sources - dilution being even cheaper but paid in later.
I'd remain cautious on the sector and wouldn’t expect $NBIS to outperform if the leaders don’t but the company has a very impressive financing roadmap, healthier than many hyperscalers at this stage.
This has always been a core part of the bull case.
But remaining that healthy through end of 2026 is pretty impressive. The market probably loves this, although I still believe there are other valid concerns short term.
Still, getting out ahead CapEx wise is impressive.
Few $NBIS notes after this quarter.
I'll be the bear, once more.
I continue to believe the market will punish the stock - or not reward it as much as many expect.
Not because the company isn’t excellent, but because it did not reward $GOOG, so why would it reward $NBIS for the same behavior?
Fundamentally, everyone will be bullish. Demand is through the roof, compute was sold out, management is planning to build more sites, etc...
Everything FinX wants to see.
From a market perspective, Q4 CapEx slowed down, guidance talks about ~20% increase of contracted power for FY26 without news on connected power, except for the upgrade from 7 sites to 16 sites.
This means FY26 CapEx will accelerate - just like for everyone else, and won't slow down FY27 as contracted power continues to climb.
More spending. Which was punished across all hyperscalers.
Also note that ARR guidance wasn’t increased, meaning no beat expected hence nothing above expectations and no buildouts closing faster than expected.
Some will say "why would you want more? It doesn't matter, they are executing at their pace"
I disagree. Acceleration is everything, otherwise you'll miss on expectations just like they did.
That revenue miss is due to real-world constraints, as I’ve shared yesterday and for months: you cannot build faster than physics and logistics allow you to.
The issue is that growth factually slows/doesn't accelerate. Growth stocks work on acceleration not stable growth.
The why doesn’t matter, even if you’re supply constrained.
Growth slows, CapEx increases, cash generation decreases, and there are no certainties that demand won’t be fulfilled by other hyperscalers by the time infrastructure is built.
Like many of you, I believe there will be demand and everything will be fine. But today, you cannot know. You can bet on it, but you cannot know.
That is the issue. And that is why the market might react like it did for $GOOG.
I continue to believe the company is excellent and its future is bright. And that the stock won’t be rewarded as much as many expect in the short term.
I’d love to be wrong. tweet
Benjamin Hernandez😎
The market is giving us setups!
$NX $RIG $CSCO $BROS $INTU $CNCK $UL $DBGI $AAPG $XXII $CMPS $CRM
$NX is quietly up 35% in a month. Building products are working. $RIG merger creates a deepwater powerhouse. $CSCO is the safe haven in tech.
Hit the link for analysis!
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The market is giving us setups!
$NX $RIG $CSCO $BROS $INTU $CNCK $UL $DBGI $AAPG $XXII $CMPS $CRM
$NX is quietly up 35% in a month. Building products are working. $RIG merger creates a deepwater powerhouse. $CSCO is the safe haven in tech.
Hit the link for analysis!
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Byron Donalds just filed new trades.
One of them was a purchase of Bitcoin, $BTC.
Donalds sits on the House Subcommittee on Digital Assets.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/VH45vqkoC1
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BREAKING: Representative Byron Donalds just filed new trades.
One of them was a purchase of Bitcoin, $BTC.
Donalds sits on the House Subcommittee on Digital Assets.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/VH45vqkoC1
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The Few Bets That Matter
$MRNA is what every investor should be looking for
And textbook price action.
Years of downtrends with crushing volume until some consolidation on growing volume. Breakout on reccord volume followed by perfect retest, pre-earnings.
Earnings please, retest is to the cent, reaction +9% and we're probably going for another ride.
I don't follow the fundamental, but this is where we study, folks. Not just because we like the story of a growth stock, but because the market does.
That's where money is
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$MRNA is what every investor should be looking for
And textbook price action.
Years of downtrends with crushing volume until some consolidation on growing volume. Breakout on reccord volume followed by perfect retest, pre-earnings.
Earnings please, retest is to the cent, reaction +9% and we're probably going for another ride.
I don't follow the fundamental, but this is where we study, folks. Not just because we like the story of a growth stock, but because the market does.
That's where money is
$MRNA is ready to blow up. And no one is talking about it.
The only one I saw mentionning the name was @nataninvesting since months, bit early to my taste but by now... It's close to perfection.
Liquidity continues to rotate. It really seems to be time to start looking away from tech... Big time. tweet
AkhenOsiris
A capital expenditure (capex) cut by an AI hyperscaler is the “most obvious catalyst to reverse significantly” the market’s rotation from “AI-awe to AI-poor,” Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett said in a note.
The strategists pointed to “wildfire AI disruption” rippling across sectors including insurance brokers, wealth advisors, real estate services and logistics. They note that India tech was the first AI-disrupted sector in the first quarter, with “no bid yet."
In the bigger picture, BofA notes major rotations are underway. The correlation between Japan’s yen and the TOPIX has flipped positive for the first time since 2005, a dynamic the strategists say historically aligns with secular bull markets.
At the same time, they reiterate a structural rotation from U.S. large-cap growth to small-cap value, and from U.S. equities toward emerging markets (EM).
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A capital expenditure (capex) cut by an AI hyperscaler is the “most obvious catalyst to reverse significantly” the market’s rotation from “AI-awe to AI-poor,” Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett said in a note.
The strategists pointed to “wildfire AI disruption” rippling across sectors including insurance brokers, wealth advisors, real estate services and logistics. They note that India tech was the first AI-disrupted sector in the first quarter, with “no bid yet."
In the bigger picture, BofA notes major rotations are underway. The correlation between Japan’s yen and the TOPIX has flipped positive for the first time since 2005, a dynamic the strategists say historically aligns with secular bull markets.
At the same time, they reiterate a structural rotation from U.S. large-cap growth to small-cap value, and from U.S. equities toward emerging markets (EM).
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