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Jukan I previously told you—before anyone else—that NVIDIA had lowered its 11Gbps requirement. ------------------------------- 'An industry source explained, "The HBM supply chain must consider not just performance alone, but power efficiency, thermal management…

essary confusion and overinterpretation in the market.

Notably, the term "mass production" as used by the three memory companies differs from the conventional concept of mass production. In typical manufacturing, samples undergo quality testing with the customer, and once certain criteria are met, official purchase orders (POs) are placed.

In contrast, the current HBM4 efforts of all three memory companies are classified as "risk production." Risk production refers to the preemptive commitment of wafers for product manufacturing before customer certification is complete.

Shipping HBM as a final product requires four months for core die production alone. If mass production were to begin only after receiving official POs, NVIDIA as the end customer would be unable to launch its AI accelerators on schedule. Therefore, all three memory companies have been conducting production with the goal of shipping products this month to supply HBM4 to customers ahead of official POs.

A senior industry executive in the memory semiconductor sector explained, "NVIDIA's official qualification test completion date is set for the end of Q1 this year, after which official POs are expected to follow. While the memory companies are publicly using the term 'mass production,' strictly speaking, this falls under the concept of risk production."

Considering this, the point at which Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's HBM4 shipment volumes begin to meaningfully expand is estimated to be H2 2025 at the earliest.

All Eyes on NVIDIA's HBM Procurement Strategy... Weighing Performance vs. Supply Stability

Currently, the prevailing industry view is that Samsung Electronics will complete NVIDIA's HBM4 qualification testing most smoothly. Samsung applied 1c (6th-generation 10nm-class) DRAM to its HBM4, which is one generation ahead of competitors. The base die that controls the HBM was also manufactured using the most advanced 4-nanometer (nm) process.

In its HBM4 mass production shipment materials, Samsung stated, "Our HBM4 has stably achieved an operating speed of 11.7Gbps, approximately 46% above the industry standard of 8Gbps, setting a new benchmark," adding, "This represents approximately a 1.22x improvement over the maximum pin speed of 9.6Gbps for the previous HBM3E, with capability to reach up to 13Gbps."

However, the industry is more focused on NVIDIA's product procurement strategy than HBM4 shipment speed. The concern is that if NVIDIA unconditionally insists on 11.7Gbps-class performance from memory suppliers, it will be unable to secure sufficient HBM4 volume needed for Rubin chip mass production.

First, Samsung Electronics lacks the capacity to rapidly scale up HBM4 shipments. Samsung's 1c DRAM yield is estimated at around 60% as of this month. Factoring in subsequent back-end processing, HBM yields drop even further. Additionally, 1c DRAM production capacity stood at approximately 60,000–70,000 wafers per month as of late last year—far short of what is needed to meet NVIDIA's total HBM4 demand. New and conversion investments in 1c DRAM are underway, but more time is needed before they are reflected in actual production capacity.

SK Hynix has been allocated the largest share of HBM4 volume (approximately 60% share) in its discussions with NVIDIA. However, it received assessments during initial HBM4 reliability evaluations indicating difficulty achieving 11Gbps-class performance. SK Hynix has been making hardware-level improvements to its HBM4 up until recently, but 100% success cannot be guaranteed.

For this reason, the industry expects NVIDIA to procure not only 11.7Gbps products but also next-tier products at 10.6Gbps and similar speeds. In this scenario, HBM4 supply would become considerably easier for all three memory companies from a technical standpoint.

An industry source explained, "The HBM supply chain must consider not just performance alone, but power efficiency, thermal management, cost, and supply stability all at once. Amid a memory shortage incomp[...]

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