DAIR.AI
RT @omarsar0: I think one of the most important questions in multi-agent AI right now is one almost nobody is asking: when you add more agents, are you actually getting collaboration, or are you just spending more compute?

Collaboration and communication are huge bottlenecks for multi-agent systems today.

New paper proposes a metric (Γ) that forces a distinction. You compare MAS performance against what a single agent could do with the same total resource budget. If Γ > 1, you have genuine collaboration gain. If Γ ≤ 1, you've built an expensive illusion.

Much of what gets reported as multi-agent success may just be resource accumulation. More agents means more tokens which translates to just more attempts at the problem. This is not solving for efficiency. But the bigger problem is that current benchmarks can't tell you whether the agents are actually collaborating or just brute-forcing with a bigger budget.

They also identify something AI devs will recognize: a "communication explosion" problem where unstructured agent dialogue creates so much noise that it actually suppresses collaboration below single-agent performance. More agents talking more doesn't mean more intelligence. In most cases it leads to less intelligence overall in the multi-agent system.

The metric itself is still largely aspirational. But the framing feels right. We're building multi-agent systems the way early software was built: try things, see what works, move on. The field needs something closer to a controlled experiment. Whether Γ is exactly the right lens or not, the question it forces you to ask is pointing in the right direction.

Paper: https://t.co/PKaeuZy4H5

Learn to build effective AI agents in our academy: https://t.co/1e8RZKs4uX
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Moon Dev
Print USDC While You Sleep: The Step-by-Step Guide to Polymarket API Bots

most people are busy gambling on sportsbooks but the real wealth is being built in the prediction markets where code handles the odds while you sleep. there is a specific bridge between being a retail trader and becoming a market maker that most people never cross because they think they need a finance degree

i believe that code is the great equalizer because i used to be the guy getting liquidated and over trading until i decided to learn to code. i spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on developers for apps in the past because i thought i was not smart enough to code myself but now fully automated systems trade for me instead of getting me wiped out

prediction markets like polymarket are not like a casino where you bet against the house but an exchange where you trade against other users. this means the prices you see are actually probabilities where an eighteen cent share represents an eighteen percent chance of an event happening

if you think the odds are better than the market suggests you buy the shares and wait for the outcome. the real secret to profiting in this space is not picking the winner of the next election but being the one who provides the liquidity for everyone else to trade

the secret of the liquidity provider is that they earn money from the spread plus the rewards the platform pays out. most traders think they have to have a crystal ball but we just need a python script that can sit on the bid and the ask simultaneously

there is a hidden danger in how these exchanges report data that can lead to your bot placing the wrong orders. i spent hours digging into the documentation to find the logic that keeps everything in sync so you do not have to repeat my mistakes

when we talk about the central limit order book we are looking at a unified system where a yes buy is essentially a no sell. once you understand that yes plus no always equals one dollar you realize that the market is always in a state of balance that can be exploited

there is a blockchain backdoor for balances that allows us to bypass the exchange api entirely when things get laggy. i discovered that we can use the web3 library in python to talk directly to the polygon rpc and see our usdc balance in real time

by looking directly at the smart contracts we can ensure that our bot always knows exactly how much capital it has to work with. this prevents the common error of trying to place an order with funds that are already locked in another trade

there is a specific logic buried in the code of top traders that allows them to make nearly a thousand dollars a day during peak volatility. i found an open source repository from a trader who was pulling in massive profits during the election and the logic is surprisingly simple

the core of this strategy is the spread scanner which looks for markets with wide gaps between the buyers and the sellers. the bot identifies the top volume markets and ranks them by the potential profit from capturing that spread while avoiding dead markets

we use a specific filter to ignore any market that is over ninety eight percent resolved because the volatility is gone and the risk is too high. the bot only focuses on the active markets where people are still fighting over the probabilities of the future

everyone talks about arbitrage but there is a hidden reason why most scanners fail and once you see it you will stop wasting time on the wrong markets. arbitrage happens when the cost of buying both yes and no is less than a dollar which is a guaranteed win

the reason most arbitrage scanners fail is that they do not account for the depth of the order book. you might see a guaranteed profit for ten cents worth of shares but as soon as you try to scale it the spread

disappears and you are left with a losing position
instead of chasing ghosts we focus on the spread bot logic which places passive bids at the best price. this allows us to ea[...]

rn the liquidity rewards which are paid out in reward points for every second our orders stay live near the mid price

automation is the only way to remove the emotional baggage that comes with watching a position go against you. with bots you must iterate to success and that is why i decided to learn live so everyone can see the process of building these systems

the liquidation trap is something i know all too well from my days of manual trading and getting emotional at two in the morning. now the code handles the risk management by checking our positions every second and ensuring we never over leverage our account

we build nice functions to handle the heavy lifting like getting the token ids and placing limit orders with a single line of code. this modular approach means we can swap out strategies in seconds without having to rewrite the entire bot from scratch

the equalizer is the fact that anyone with a laptop and the willingness to learn can now compete with the big dogs. you do not need to be a math genius to understand how to bridge the gap between world events and your trading account

we are moving into a world where prediction markets will be the most accurate source of information for everything from elections to interest rates. being early to the automation side of this industry is like finding a gold mine before the rest of the world knows it exists

i am going to keep showing everything because i know that wall street will never reveal how these systems actually work. all i ask is that you stay hungry and keep iterating on your own bots until you find that edge that works for you

the final step in the process is to set up a loop that runs twenty four seven scanning for the best spreads and providing liquidity. once the system is live it becomes a machine that converts market volatility into steady growth while removing the human error that leads to liquidations

code is truly the great equalizer and once you have your first bot running you will never want to look at a chart manually ever again. the future of finance is automated and we are just getting started on this journey together
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Brady Long
RT @thisdudelikesAI: Claude code or Codex?
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @TheYieldPig: The difference between successful people and really successful people is that really successful people say no to almost everything. - Warren Buffett
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Moon Dev
hey you missed the zoom call

you missed our private zoom call today

it is an absolute must see if you are trying to build trading bots

get a ticket for tomorrows zoom and you will get the replay from today

here is the link https://t.co/JbJdIbW2p9

see you tomorrow

moon dev
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @anonymous3nibrv: Trend in ADV vs. NK225. You see a +2σ or so pop in ADV mid-January (when market started pricing in the election & Takaichi's victory) and prices followed thereafter. I'm seeing the same trend in the Standard market now. Look below. https://t.co/7gKPGXd2x8
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @MaxCrypto: This is unbelievable.

$BTC has been literally mimicking the Software ETF for 5+ years now. https://t.co/pURciHbeuk
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @DaBao_: @ClarkSquareCap 2377 MSI. the annual shipment for PC is 280M and MSI only contributed 2.5M. still plenty of white space and PC gaming hardware is growing long-term
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @DaBao_: https://t.co/w4DZfHC6Fn

@bauhiniacapital love me some E Ink 8069. a monopoly on e-ink! - DaBao
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
DaBao is a very talented investor. You've got to follow him #FF

@ClarkSquareCap 2377 MSI. the annual shipment for PC is 280M and MSI only contributed 2.5M. still plenty of white space and PC gaming hardware is growing long-term - DaBao
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God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: RIP "act as an expert" and basic prompting.

A former OpenAI engineer just exposed "Prompt Contract" - the internal technique that makes LLMs actually obey you.

Works on ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, everything.

Here's how to use it right now: https://t.co/6ZDCFs5JvK
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
Okay so
- You get 20 years if you criticize the government. So presumably media is biased.
- Outsiders don't have access to high-quality data, operating at a disadvantage
- Insiders are selling en masse

... I feel more comfortable investing Taiwan/Japan/South Korea than the PRC

Effectively a life sentence for Jimmy Lai.

For peacefully criticising the Chinese government.

Let that sink in.

The world needs to wake up. This is what your a dealing with - not a rational player on the world stage. A vindictive, regime of unchallengeable power - Luke de Pulford
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
AeroEdge just hit JPY 4,000/share, making it an 8-bagger within a year. I no longer own shares. But water your flowers and cut your weeds, is my take-away. https://t.co/PlUqTZR3rW
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