The Few Bets That Matter
$HIMS to $100

Or so they said

BREAKING: FDA announces intent to restrict non-FDA-approved compounded GLP-1 drugs, directly names Hims & Hers $HIMS

FDA says it will use "all available compliance and enforcement tools," including seizure and injunction against companies marketing unapproved compounded GLP-1 products. - WOLF
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: 𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬 𝐇𝐨𝐡𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐲𝐩𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐢𝐧:

“We have a long list of companies we don’t invest in… banks, commodity businesses, most manufacturing industries, fossil fuels, utilities, airlines, wireless telecom, advertising agencies… Why? Because they’re competitive. And the most important thing I’ve learned in investing is that investors underestimate the forces of competition and disruption.”
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𝘐𝘯𝘥𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘏𝘰𝘩𝘯 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘷𝘰𝘪𝘥𝘴:

• Banks
• Commodity businesses / manufacturing
• Insurance
• Tobacco
• Fossil fuels
• Utilities
• Airlines
• Wireless telecom
• Advertising agencies
• Most traditional manufacturing
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Hohn’s point isn’t that money can’t be made in these areas — plenty of investors have done well in some of them.

The deeper lesson:

𝙄𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙨 𝙢𝙪𝙘𝙝 𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙙𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝙤𝙬𝙣 𝙖𝙨 𝙞𝙩 𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙙𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝙤𝙬𝙣.

Highly competitive industries tend to:

• Erode returns on capital
• Compress margins over time
• Require constant reinvestment

Contrast that with businesses that have:

• Pricing power
• High switching costs
• Network effects
• Structural barriers to entry

Those are the environments where 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 compounding becomes far more predictable.
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Another subtle takeaway:

Most investors focus heavily on upside narratives.

Great investors spend just as much time thinking about downside structures.
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Source: In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management (05/14/2025)
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Brady Long
RT @thisguyknowsai: 🚨BREAKING: Google just dropped another hit!

It's called PaperBanana and it generates publication-ready academic illustrations from just your methodology text.

No Figma. No manual design. No illustration skills needed.

Here's how it works:

A team of AI agents runs behind the scenes
→ One finds good diagram examples
→ One plans the structure
→ One styles the layout
→ One generates the image
→ One critiques and improves it

Here's the wildest part:

Random reference examples work nearly as well as perfectly matched ones. What matters is showing the model what good diagrams look like, not finding the topically perfect reference.

In blind evaluations, humans preferred PaperBanana outputs 75% of the time.

This is the recursion we've been waiting for AI systems that can fully document themselves visually.

Waitlist’s open, Link in the first comment.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @souzaj99: Had some exchanges with IAMX China Board and been doing some historical digging on $IMAX and $1970.HK $1970 IMAX China... @MikeFritzell @ragingbullcap
The table below summarises dividends, profits and PRC cash movements over time. https://t.co/Oc1dToJYne

Since the failed 2023 take-private attempt, IMAX China $1970.HK has delivered higher margins, higher EBITDA, and a larger share of $IMAX group profits.

It now represents 40%+ of group EBITDA, its cash flow is booming, yet trades at ~4× EBITDA.
@ragingbullcap @MikeFritzell https://t.co/xx0Mr8Cqw6 - JSouza
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Below is a comparison of 20 stocks & their lowest weekly RSI over the past 10 years versus their current RSI:

Stock | Lowest RSI (10Y) | Current RSI

1. $CRWD 31 | 34
2. $FICO 27 | 34
3. $SPGI 30 | 33
4. $AXON 30 | 31
5. $BMI 28 | 31
6. $QCOM 34 | 30
7. $RACE 30 | 30
8. $CRM 29 | 31
9. $MSFT 29 | 29
10. $ORCL 29 | 29
11. $ADSK 28 | 29
12. $ADBE 28 | 28
13. $VEEV 27 | 27
14. $INTU 26 | 26
15. $NFLX 15 | 26
16. $NOW 21 | 21
17. $CSU 20 | 20
18. $VRSK 19 | 19
19. $TYL 17 | 17
20. $ROP 14 | 14
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*RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures how overbought or oversold a stock is based on recent price momentum.

**Photo below is the $IGV Software ETF
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @nothingbutjp: SONY $6758.T - the most mis-priced Japanese large cap trading at 13x ev/ebit, while painting record OP and authorizing additional buybacks in Q3. Profit growth driven by higher-quality IP, semi concerns overblown. Near-term non-cash optics on Sony FG spin-off caused sell-off. https://t.co/QWMfmzlkCr
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Jukan
>> "Wavering" in DDR4 Memory Prices at Shenzhen Huaqiangbei Electronics Market

- Recent reports indicate that DDR4 memory prices have begun to soften slightly or enter an adjustment phase at Huaqiangbei (华强北), China's largest electronics wholesale and retail market.

- According to industry sources and market data, DDR4 8GB and 16GB products—which had previously surged in price—are now showing signs of correction from their elevated levels. Some vendors reported that 8GB product prices have dropped by several tens of yuan from their previous highs, while 16GB products are also undergoing price adjustments at certain spot-sale outlets. However, this correction is being interpreted not as a broad "crash," but rather as limited price flexibility within the higher price range.

- Industry analysts attribute these movements largely to inventory turnover and cash flow needs ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. An increasing number of distributors are offloading existing inventory at lower prices to improve cash circulation, resulting in modest pullbacks from peak levels. That said, many caution that it would be premature to view this as a definitive downtrend, noting that the structural supply shortage underpinning DDR4 memory price increases remains intact.
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The Transcript
Blue Owl only sees pristine credit metrics in tech even as markets flash warnings:

"“Tech lending has worked, continues to work...We don’t have red flags. In point of fact, we don’t have yellow flags. We actually have largely green flags."

$OWL https://t.co/sHtqAPpuEp
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
Fascinating how much Singapore interest rates have come down... back to normal https://t.co/xwDeGzsS1s
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God of Prompt
RT @alex_prompter: OpenClaw broke the internet

But you DON'T need to setup any servers to use it

Here's the easiest way to run OpenClaw on a website

No Mac Minis required https://t.co/6xspOtHaxT
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