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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @nitinkinvest: 6286.T Seiko, much like Casio, is seeing a substantial momentum in brand heat. Expect the company to beat and raise materially. No position! https://t.co/NUI731f86d
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RT @nitinkinvest: 6286.T Seiko, much like Casio, is seeing a substantial momentum in brand heat. Expect the company to beat and raise materially. No position! https://t.co/NUI731f86d
$6952.T (Casio) continues to show powerful global inflection. Seeing G-SHOCK in particular show up on multiple "Top 10" lists across major tracking channels.
The stock recently hit a 4-year high on the back of a significant Q3 '26 earnings beat and a newly announced ¥5 billion share buyback.
Amazon search trends for January are up a whopping 44% for G-SHOCK and 47% for the Casio brand (overall). Management is successfully pivoting toward high-margin metal models, I believe we are in the very early innings of a major re-rating story. tweet
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
Now well under retail. The problem with Pop Mart is that the revenues aren't recurring. Eventually you'll run out of space. And run out of interest buying newer, shinier version. https://t.co/lLzv70olb8
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Now well under retail. The problem with Pop Mart is that the revenues aren't recurring. Eventually you'll run out of space. And run out of interest buying newer, shinier version. https://t.co/lLzv70olb8
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @MoreBirths: Where has fertility fallen the most in the past ten years?
Not in the richest countries but in middle income countries.
Countries like Turkey, Iran, Argentina, Thailand, and even Mexico now have fertility rates well below that of the United States. Why? 1/3 https://t.co/0yEkmEcBf3
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RT @MoreBirths: Where has fertility fallen the most in the past ten years?
Not in the richest countries but in middle income countries.
Countries like Turkey, Iran, Argentina, Thailand, and even Mexico now have fertility rates well below that of the United States. Why? 1/3 https://t.co/0yEkmEcBf3
Using @BirthGauge's data, I made this map of the TFR development between 2015 and 2025 in the countries where data is available.
Few studied region are spared.
Macao🇲🇴-57%
Argentina🇦🇷-49%
Thailand🇹🇭/Philippines🇵🇭-44%
Ukraine🇺🇦-43%
Bolivia🇧🇴/China🇨🇳-42%
Tunisia🇹🇳-40%
Egypt🇪🇬-39% https://t.co/9yzlFwmB8x tweet
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Jukan
Samsung Begins Tesla AI5 Wafer Processing… "Musk Also Attending Meetings"
Samsung Electronics will soon begin pilot production of Tesla's AI5 chips. While the AI5 and AI6 chip foundry contracts are loss-making in the short term, the level of interest is high enough that Tesla CEO Elon Musk is personally involved in working-level meetings with Samsung Electronics staff, raising expectations for revenue growth through expanded cooperation.
Samsung Electronics was previously reported to have secured a $16.5 billion (approximately 24 trillion won) contract from Tesla in July last year for foundry production of AI6 chips. The contract runs through 2033. Additionally, Samsung Electronics has also secured a portion of AI5 chip production, which had been expected to be produced entirely by TSMC. The opportunity arose for Samsung due to TSMC's limited production capacity and lower price competitiveness. Samsung Electronics will manufacture the AI5 and AI6 chips using its cutting-edge 2-nanometer process.
According to industry sources, Samsung Electronics will begin wafer processing for pilot production of Tesla AI5 chips as early as this month. Samsung's Taylor foundry fab in the United States had been expected to begin operations in the second half of this year, but the timeline has been moved up as Tesla recently completed the AI5 chip design. Considering that it takes three to four months from the first wafer input to produce finished products, initial AI5 chip samples are expected to be available as early as the first half of this year. Full-scale mass production is expected in 2027.
Tesla is investing significant effort in the AI chip development and production preparation process with Samsung Electronics. In particular, Tesla CEO Elon Musk is reportedly leading the project by personally overseeing key progress updates.
One semiconductor industry insider said, "Tesla CEO Elon Musk is paying close attention to the collaboration with Samsung Electronics. He personally participates in working-level technical meetings of Samsung Electronics' foundry division related to AI5 and AI6 chip work," adding, "I've heard he actively checks on progress point by point and offers his input during meetings."
Samsung Electronics had previously allowed Tesla to be involved in the manufacturing process, considering the risks that could arise during the initial mass production phase. CEO Elon Musk also expressed his willingness to be deeply involved in the project, emphasizing a close cooperative relationship with Samsung Electronics. This has gone beyond public statements to actual participation at the working level.
For the next-generation AI6 chip, which Samsung Electronics is exclusively responsible for, pilot production is expected to begin next year with mass production starting in 2028. During its recent fourth-quarter earnings conference call, the company expressed confidence, stating, "Our second-generation 2-nanometer process is on track for mass production in the second half of the year, meeting yield and performance targets," and "We are conducting power, performance, and area (PPA) evaluations and test chip collaborations with major clients for product design, with technology verification proceeding as planned."
The industry is paying attention to the mid-to-long-term value of Samsung Electronics' Tesla contract. While this deal is essentially a loss-making contract in the short term, it holds significant strategic importance considering future scalability. The contract volume for AI5 chips has not been disclosed but is known to be small. The AI6 chip contract is valued at $16.5 billion. Considering that Samsung Electronics is spending approximately $37 billion (about 54.2 trillion won) to build the Taylor foundry fab through 2030, annual revenue of around $3 billion is not a large proportion relative to the investment.
However, the potential expansion of applications for Tesla's AI5 and AI6 chips is a point where future revenue growth is expected[...]
Samsung Begins Tesla AI5 Wafer Processing… "Musk Also Attending Meetings"
Samsung Electronics will soon begin pilot production of Tesla's AI5 chips. While the AI5 and AI6 chip foundry contracts are loss-making in the short term, the level of interest is high enough that Tesla CEO Elon Musk is personally involved in working-level meetings with Samsung Electronics staff, raising expectations for revenue growth through expanded cooperation.
Samsung Electronics was previously reported to have secured a $16.5 billion (approximately 24 trillion won) contract from Tesla in July last year for foundry production of AI6 chips. The contract runs through 2033. Additionally, Samsung Electronics has also secured a portion of AI5 chip production, which had been expected to be produced entirely by TSMC. The opportunity arose for Samsung due to TSMC's limited production capacity and lower price competitiveness. Samsung Electronics will manufacture the AI5 and AI6 chips using its cutting-edge 2-nanometer process.
According to industry sources, Samsung Electronics will begin wafer processing for pilot production of Tesla AI5 chips as early as this month. Samsung's Taylor foundry fab in the United States had been expected to begin operations in the second half of this year, but the timeline has been moved up as Tesla recently completed the AI5 chip design. Considering that it takes three to four months from the first wafer input to produce finished products, initial AI5 chip samples are expected to be available as early as the first half of this year. Full-scale mass production is expected in 2027.
Tesla is investing significant effort in the AI chip development and production preparation process with Samsung Electronics. In particular, Tesla CEO Elon Musk is reportedly leading the project by personally overseeing key progress updates.
One semiconductor industry insider said, "Tesla CEO Elon Musk is paying close attention to the collaboration with Samsung Electronics. He personally participates in working-level technical meetings of Samsung Electronics' foundry division related to AI5 and AI6 chip work," adding, "I've heard he actively checks on progress point by point and offers his input during meetings."
Samsung Electronics had previously allowed Tesla to be involved in the manufacturing process, considering the risks that could arise during the initial mass production phase. CEO Elon Musk also expressed his willingness to be deeply involved in the project, emphasizing a close cooperative relationship with Samsung Electronics. This has gone beyond public statements to actual participation at the working level.
For the next-generation AI6 chip, which Samsung Electronics is exclusively responsible for, pilot production is expected to begin next year with mass production starting in 2028. During its recent fourth-quarter earnings conference call, the company expressed confidence, stating, "Our second-generation 2-nanometer process is on track for mass production in the second half of the year, meeting yield and performance targets," and "We are conducting power, performance, and area (PPA) evaluations and test chip collaborations with major clients for product design, with technology verification proceeding as planned."
The industry is paying attention to the mid-to-long-term value of Samsung Electronics' Tesla contract. While this deal is essentially a loss-making contract in the short term, it holds significant strategic importance considering future scalability. The contract volume for AI5 chips has not been disclosed but is known to be small. The AI6 chip contract is valued at $16.5 billion. Considering that Samsung Electronics is spending approximately $37 billion (about 54.2 trillion won) to build the Taylor foundry fab through 2030, annual revenue of around $3 billion is not a large proportion relative to the investment.
However, the potential expansion of applications for Tesla's AI5 and AI6 chips is a point where future revenue growth is expected[...]
Offshore
Jukan Samsung Begins Tesla AI5 Wafer Processing… "Musk Also Attending Meetings" Samsung Electronics will soon begin pilot production of Tesla's AI5 chips. While the AI5 and AI6 chip foundry contracts are loss-making in the short term, the level of interest…
. The chips could be deployed across Tesla's entire AI value chain, including not only autonomous vehicles but also robotaxis, humanoid robots, and proprietary AI servers. Another semiconductor industry insider said, "The specific applications for the AI chips are expected to become clearer in the first half of this year," adding, "If Samsung Electronics' chip quality meets expectations, there is a high possibility this could expand into a $100 billion business."
The industry is also raising the possibility that Samsung Electronics' foundry division could achieve a turnaround to profitability next year. The division has continued to post annual losses of several trillion won until recently. Potential turning points for improved performance include the adoption of the next-generation mobile application processor "Exynos 2600" in the Galaxy S26 series, potential orders from big tech companies like Qualcomm and AMD, and increased utilization rates for 4-nanometer and 8-nanometer processes.
Kiwoom Securities noted in a recent report, "Samsung Electronics' foundry and System LSI divisions are expected to post annual operating losses of around 4 trillion won (this year), but there is also a possibility that the deficit could narrow further, driven by increased utilization of advanced process nodes." Heungkuk Securities projected, "As TSMC capacity shortages intensify, the visibility of Samsung Foundry's turnaround is increasing, with the Tesla contract as a catalyst."
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The industry is also raising the possibility that Samsung Electronics' foundry division could achieve a turnaround to profitability next year. The division has continued to post annual losses of several trillion won until recently. Potential turning points for improved performance include the adoption of the next-generation mobile application processor "Exynos 2600" in the Galaxy S26 series, potential orders from big tech companies like Qualcomm and AMD, and increased utilization rates for 4-nanometer and 8-nanometer processes.
Kiwoom Securities noted in a recent report, "Samsung Electronics' foundry and System LSI divisions are expected to post annual operating losses of around 4 trillion won (this year), but there is also a possibility that the deficit could narrow further, driven by increased utilization of advanced process nodes." Heungkuk Securities projected, "As TSMC capacity shortages intensify, the visibility of Samsung Foundry's turnaround is increasing, with the Tesla contract as a catalyst."
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Jukan
Memory Big 3 Change Contract Practices… Post-Settlement Pricing Emerges
Rising memory prices are now transforming supply contract practices. Contract durations are shifting from long-term to short-term, and a "post-settlement" concept reflecting market prices has emerged, moving away from negotiated fixed pricing.
Based on reporting by ETNews on the 4th, Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron — the major memory manufacturers — have recently been entering new types of product supply contracts. An industry insider familiar with the matter said, "As memory prices have surged, an unprecedented post-settlement pricing method has emerged, and ultra-short-term contracts are also being adopted."
Typically, memory products such as DRAM and NAND have prices specified at the time of the initial supply contract. With fixed transaction prices, even if market conditions change and prices rise or fall, adjustments are generally made within approximately 10% through negotiations. For example, if a contract is signed to supply DRAM at 100 won, the price mostly holds for about one year. If there are price fluctuations, quarterly negotiations within the contract period adjust it to 110 won (+10%) or 90 won (-10%) for supply in the following quarter.
However, recently, contracts have been emerging where price increases are compensated retroactively to reflect market rates even after supply has been delivered. In other words, even if a contract was signed to supply DRAM at 100 won for one year, if DRAM market prices have risen 100% by the end of the contract period, an additional 100 won is paid. This is essentially a post-settlement arrangement.
All three major memory companies have already signed contracts using this method, and the counterparties are primarily North American big tech clients. While this could be disadvantageous for suppliers if memory prices fall, analysts note that the risk is minimal since price increases are currently expected to far outweigh the risk of decline.
Another industry insider explained, "From major clients' perspective, securing memory supply is currently more important than the contract format," adding, "They have determined that it is urgent to lock in supply contracts first, even if additional costs arise later."
Contract durations are also changing. Memory clients want long-term contracts of two years or more, beyond the typical one year, to secure stable memory supply for the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. However, memory manufacturers as suppliers are increasingly reluctant to agree to this. Supply is tight and price volatility is high. There is a risk that locking into a long-term supply contract with one client could mean missing opportunities to secure other clients on better terms.
As a result, contracts have reportedly shifted from annual to quarterly, and even monthly terms. In one known case, a North American data center operator A requested a two-year long-term supply contract from one memory manufacturer but was rejected, and barely managed to secure a supply commitment from another manufacturer. This contract also included the post-settlement pricing method for price increases.
An industry insider said, "This supplier-favorable contracting trend is expected to continue at least until the second half of the year, when the upward momentum in memory prices is expected to moderate."
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Memory Big 3 Change Contract Practices… Post-Settlement Pricing Emerges
Rising memory prices are now transforming supply contract practices. Contract durations are shifting from long-term to short-term, and a "post-settlement" concept reflecting market prices has emerged, moving away from negotiated fixed pricing.
Based on reporting by ETNews on the 4th, Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron — the major memory manufacturers — have recently been entering new types of product supply contracts. An industry insider familiar with the matter said, "As memory prices have surged, an unprecedented post-settlement pricing method has emerged, and ultra-short-term contracts are also being adopted."
Typically, memory products such as DRAM and NAND have prices specified at the time of the initial supply contract. With fixed transaction prices, even if market conditions change and prices rise or fall, adjustments are generally made within approximately 10% through negotiations. For example, if a contract is signed to supply DRAM at 100 won, the price mostly holds for about one year. If there are price fluctuations, quarterly negotiations within the contract period adjust it to 110 won (+10%) or 90 won (-10%) for supply in the following quarter.
However, recently, contracts have been emerging where price increases are compensated retroactively to reflect market rates even after supply has been delivered. In other words, even if a contract was signed to supply DRAM at 100 won for one year, if DRAM market prices have risen 100% by the end of the contract period, an additional 100 won is paid. This is essentially a post-settlement arrangement.
All three major memory companies have already signed contracts using this method, and the counterparties are primarily North American big tech clients. While this could be disadvantageous for suppliers if memory prices fall, analysts note that the risk is minimal since price increases are currently expected to far outweigh the risk of decline.
Another industry insider explained, "From major clients' perspective, securing memory supply is currently more important than the contract format," adding, "They have determined that it is urgent to lock in supply contracts first, even if additional costs arise later."
Contract durations are also changing. Memory clients want long-term contracts of two years or more, beyond the typical one year, to secure stable memory supply for the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. However, memory manufacturers as suppliers are increasingly reluctant to agree to this. Supply is tight and price volatility is high. There is a risk that locking into a long-term supply contract with one client could mean missing opportunities to secure other clients on better terms.
As a result, contracts have reportedly shifted from annual to quarterly, and even monthly terms. In one known case, a North American data center operator A requested a two-year long-term supply contract from one memory manufacturer but was rejected, and barely managed to secure a supply commitment from another manufacturer. This contract also included the post-settlement pricing method for price increases.
An industry insider said, "This supplier-favorable contracting trend is expected to continue at least until the second half of the year, when the upward momentum in memory prices is expected to moderate."
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Jukan
The Big 3 memory companies are basically extorting money at this point. They're refusing to honor the prices from previously signed contracts and are pressuring people to pay according to current market prices lol https://t.co/7ikDqMCuSx
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The Big 3 memory companies are basically extorting money at this point. They're refusing to honor the prices from previously signed contracts and are pressuring people to pay according to current market prices lol https://t.co/7ikDqMCuSx
Memory Big 3 Change Contract Practices… Post-Settlement Pricing Emerges
Rising memory prices are now transforming supply contract practices. Contract durations are shifting from long-term to short-term, and a "post-settlement" concept reflecting market prices has emerged, moving away from negotiated fixed pricing.
Based on reporting by ETNews on the 4th, Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron — the major memory manufacturers — have recently been entering new types of product supply contracts. An industry insider familiar with the matter said, "As memory prices have surged, an unprecedented post-settlement pricing method has emerged, and ultra-short-term contracts are also being adopted."
Typically, memory products such as DRAM and NAND have prices specified at the time of the initial supply contract. With fixed transaction prices, even if market conditions change and prices rise or fall, adjustments are generally made within approximately 10% through negotiations. For example, if a contract is signed to supply DRAM at 100 won, the price mostly holds for about one year. If there are price fluctuations, quarterly negotiations within the contract period adjust it to 110 won (+10%) or 90 won (-10%) for supply in the following quarter.
However, recently, contracts have been emerging where price increases are compensated retroactively to reflect market rates even after supply has been delivered. In other words, even if a contract was signed to supply DRAM at 100 won for one year, if DRAM market prices have risen 100% by the end of the contract period, an additional 100 won is paid. This is essentially a post-settlement arrangement.
All three major memory companies have already signed contracts using this method, and the counterparties are primarily North American big tech clients. While this could be disadvantageous for suppliers if memory prices fall, analysts note that the risk is minimal since price increases are currently expected to far outweigh the risk of decline.
Another industry insider explained, "From major clients' perspective, securing memory supply is currently more important than the contract format," adding, "They have determined that it is urgent to lock in supply contracts first, even if additional costs arise later."
Contract durations are also changing. Memory clients want long-term contracts of two years or more, beyond the typical one year, to secure stable memory supply for the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. However, memory manufacturers as suppliers are increasingly reluctant to agree to this. Supply is tight and price volatility is high. There is a risk that locking into a long-term supply contract with one client could mean missing opportunities to secure other clients on better terms.
As a result, contracts have reportedly shifted from annual to quarterly, and even monthly terms. In one known case, a North American data center operator A requested a two-year long-term supply contract from one memory manufacturer but was rejected, and barely managed to secure a supply commitment from another manufacturer. This contract also included the post-settlement pricing method for price increases.
An industry insider said, "This supplier-favorable contracting trend is expected to continue at least until the second half of the year, when the upward momentum in memory prices is expected to moderate." tweet