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The Few Bets That Matter
The only tech stocks I still own are $ALAB and $BABA, and I expect both to outperform.
$ALAB generates real cash today.
As long as CapEx keeps rising - and $AMZN just confirmed it isn’t slowing after Meta and Google did the same, semis will keep printing.
Unlike hyperscalers, semis are positive FCF. They don’t depend on future ROI; they monetize real spending happening now.
With hyperscalers guiding CapEx ~50% above expectations, that cash flows directly to semis.
The market wants free cash flow.
They have it.
$BABA is the only hyperscaler holding up while markets fall. Likely because.
1. Ownership is largely non-US → US tech pressure doesn’t apply
2. China has a different economic and financial regime and situation
3. Valuation is incomparable to US hyperscalers, with cash-generating assets outside tech
Both names sit in very specific situations. As the market gets picky, performance will come from singular assets, not sectors.
This isn’t the end of AI.
It’s the start of the stock-picking era.
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The only tech stocks I still own are $ALAB and $BABA, and I expect both to outperform.
$ALAB generates real cash today.
As long as CapEx keeps rising - and $AMZN just confirmed it isn’t slowing after Meta and Google did the same, semis will keep printing.
Unlike hyperscalers, semis are positive FCF. They don’t depend on future ROI; they monetize real spending happening now.
With hyperscalers guiding CapEx ~50% above expectations, that cash flows directly to semis.
The market wants free cash flow.
They have it.
$BABA is the only hyperscaler holding up while markets fall. Likely because.
1. Ownership is largely non-US → US tech pressure doesn’t apply
2. China has a different economic and financial regime and situation
3. Valuation is incomparable to US hyperscalers, with cash-generating assets outside tech
Both names sit in very specific situations. As the market gets picky, performance will come from singular assets, not sectors.
This isn’t the end of AI.
It’s the start of the stock-picking era.
https://t.co/vtc1iOZNCx tweet
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Quartr
$AMZN Q4 2025
"We expect to invest about $200 billion in capital expenditures across Amazon in 2026, and anticipate strong long-term return on invested capital" - Andy Jassy
Revenue +14%
*AWS +24%
*Online Stores +10%
*Physical Stores +5%
*Third Party Sellers +11%
*Subscriptions +14%
*Advertising +23%
EBIT +18%
*margin 11.7% (11.3)
EPS +5%
FCF LTM -71%
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$AMZN Q4 2025
"We expect to invest about $200 billion in capital expenditures across Amazon in 2026, and anticipate strong long-term return on invested capital" - Andy Jassy
Revenue +14%
*AWS +24%
*Online Stores +10%
*Physical Stores +5%
*Third Party Sellers +11%
*Subscriptions +14%
*Advertising +23%
EBIT +18%
*margin 11.7% (11.3)
EPS +5%
FCF LTM -71%
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Amazon $AMZN Q4 2025 Report 🗓️
✅ REV: $213.39B (+14% YoY)
❌ EPS: $1.95 (+5% YoY)
☁️ AWS $35.79B (+24% YoY)
💵 ADS $21.31B (+23% YoY)
☁️ AWS growth accelerated for the third consecutive quarter, fastest growth rate in last 13 quarters
💰 FY Operating Income +17% YoY https://t.co/pnjoLFZEYR
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Amazon $AMZN Q4 2025 Report 🗓️
✅ REV: $213.39B (+14% YoY)
❌ EPS: $1.95 (+5% YoY)
☁️ AWS $35.79B (+24% YoY)
💵 ADS $21.31B (+23% YoY)
☁️ AWS growth accelerated for the third consecutive quarter, fastest growth rate in last 13 quarters
💰 FY Operating Income +17% YoY https://t.co/pnjoLFZEYR
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Bourbon Capital
$AMZN Net sales up 14% YoY $213.4B vs Est $211.49
AWS sales up 24% YoY
North America Sales up 10%
International sales 17% YoY
EPS $1.95 vs Est $1.96
Advertising growing 22%
AWS growing 24% (our fastest growth in 13 quarters) https://t.co/KRpur3rr0W
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$AMZN Net sales up 14% YoY $213.4B vs Est $211.49
AWS sales up 24% YoY
North America Sales up 10%
International sales 17% YoY
EPS $1.95 vs Est $1.96
Advertising growing 22%
AWS growing 24% (our fastest growth in 13 quarters) https://t.co/KRpur3rr0W
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App Economy Insights
$AMZN Amazon Q4 FY25:
• Revenue +14% Y/Y to $213.4B ($2.2B beat).
• Operating margin 12% (+0.4pp Y/Y).
• EPS $1.95 ($0.01 miss).
• Q1 FY26 rev guide: +11%–15% Y/Y.
☁️ AWS:
• Revenue +24% Y/Y to $35.6B.
• Operating margin 35% (-2pp Y/Y). https://t.co/169cUDweIt
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$AMZN Amazon Q4 FY25:
• Revenue +14% Y/Y to $213.4B ($2.2B beat).
• Operating margin 12% (+0.4pp Y/Y).
• EPS $1.95 ($0.01 miss).
• Q1 FY26 rev guide: +11%–15% Y/Y.
☁️ AWS:
• Revenue +24% Y/Y to $35.6B.
• Operating margin 35% (-2pp Y/Y). https://t.co/169cUDweIt
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The Transcript
Amazon Segments YoY net sales growth (FY25)
—North America: +10%
—International: +13%
—AWS: +20%
—Consolidated: +12%
Operating margins (FY25)
—North America: 6.9%
—International: 2.9%
—AWS: 35.4%
—Consolidated: 11.2%
$AMZN https://t.co/p1Mjy2vfKu
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Amazon Segments YoY net sales growth (FY25)
—North America: +10%
—International: +13%
—AWS: +20%
—Consolidated: +12%
Operating margins (FY25)
—North America: 6.9%
—International: 2.9%
—AWS: 35.4%
—Consolidated: 11.2%
$AMZN https://t.co/p1Mjy2vfKu
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Fiscal.ai
Atlassian CEO:
"We believe our shares are significantly undervalued. We’re using our strong free cash flow to opportunistically repurchase our stock."
$TEAM https://t.co/YJAiJfdJ4t
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Atlassian CEO:
"We believe our shares are significantly undervalued. We’re using our strong free cash flow to opportunistically repurchase our stock."
$TEAM https://t.co/YJAiJfdJ4t
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The Transcript
Bill CEO: "We delivered a strong Q2, with a significant beat on revenue and profitability..."
CFO: "We accelerated core revenue growth while strengthening our margin profile."
$BILL: +15% AH https://t.co/v6OA2qRFhY
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Bill CEO: "We delivered a strong Q2, with a significant beat on revenue and profitability..."
CFO: "We accelerated core revenue growth while strengthening our margin profile."
$BILL: +15% AH https://t.co/v6OA2qRFhY
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The Transcript
$AMZN CEO: "AWS growing 24% (our fastest growth in 13 quarters)..." https://t.co/HgFigEwVx8
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$AMZN CEO: "AWS growing 24% (our fastest growth in 13 quarters)..." https://t.co/HgFigEwVx8
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