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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
First chart $LRCX FCF yield
Second chart $NOW FCF yield
Notice anything?
They’ve essentially flipped.
Software valuations today resemble where semiconductors traded 4 years ago. Many semiconductor valuations resemble where software once traded.
Software oversold. Semis crowded.
Mean reversion on its way?
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First chart $LRCX FCF yield
Second chart $NOW FCF yield
Notice anything?
They’ve essentially flipped.
Software valuations today resemble where semiconductors traded 4 years ago. Many semiconductor valuations resemble where software once traded.
Software oversold. Semis crowded.
Mean reversion on its way?
Perhaps a contrarian rotation worth revisiting over the next few years: modestly trimming semiconductor exposure and reallocating toward some of the strongest, widest-moat software businesses.
Ironically, SaaS and semiconductor multiples have essentially swapped.
SaaS multiples today resemble where semis traded a few years ago — and semis now trade closer to where SaaS once did.
Of course, timing is never perfect, and semiconductors could continue to run amid strong demand and supply constraints. Still, it’s a rotation worth keeping an eye on.
$ASML $NVDA $LRCX $KLAC $NOW $CSU $CRM $SMH $IGV tweet
Offshore
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Benjamin Hernandez😎
$AAPL India Strategy De-risks Supply
Apple ($AAPL) secures a 5-year tax certainty deal in India, accelerating the shift from China. Shares holding $270 as market weighs 90% DRAM price surge vs.
I surface news that shifts momentum early on $ASTS $RKLB $IREN $NVDA in pinned. https://t.co/5TiOBMVXGc
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$AAPL India Strategy De-risks Supply
Apple ($AAPL) secures a 5-year tax certainty deal in India, accelerating the shift from China. Shares holding $270 as market weighs 90% DRAM price surge vs.
I surface news that shifts momentum early on $ASTS $RKLB $IREN $NVDA in pinned. https://t.co/5TiOBMVXGc
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$RR $SOC $BMNR $BYND $PULM https://t.co/XjRSUjWbnr tweet
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Javier Blas
President Trump says he discussed with President Xi of China further purchases by Beijing of American commodities (he singled out oil, gas and soybeans). https://t.co/x4kA1yPsLe
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President Trump says he discussed with President Xi of China further purchases by Beijing of American commodities (he singled out oil, gas and soybeans). https://t.co/x4kA1yPsLe
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The Transcript
$UBER:
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$UBER:
As reported in @Uber earnings today, I’m proud to say that @UberFreight achieved breakeven in Q4 on an adjusted EBITDA basis, after 3+ years of losses. We’re just at the starting line - with a ton of work left to do for our customers - but we’re getting there! Now back to work… tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Rebecca Tinucci (@RebeccaTinucci) on X
As reported in @Uber earnings today, I’m proud to say that @UberFreight achieved breakeven in Q4 on an adjusted EBITDA basis, after 3+ years of losses. We’re just at the starting line - with a ton of work left to do for our customers - but we’re getting there!…
Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Trading volumes for Metals exploded this quarter at CME Group.
Average Daily Volume: +114%
That's their fastest growth rate in more than a decade.
$CME https://t.co/N90OegJQgy
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Trading volumes for Metals exploded this quarter at CME Group.
Average Daily Volume: +114%
That's their fastest growth rate in more than a decade.
$CME https://t.co/N90OegJQgy
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Offshore
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God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: AI benchmarks are lying to you.
Models are scoring 95%+ on tests because the test questions were IN their training data.
Scale AI published proof in May 2024.
We have no idea how smart these models actually are.
Here's the contamination problem nobody's fixing: https://t.co/uPOW7YQyNX
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RT @godofprompt: AI benchmarks are lying to you.
Models are scoring 95%+ on tests because the test questions were IN their training data.
Scale AI published proof in May 2024.
We have no idea how smart these models actually are.
Here's the contamination problem nobody's fixing: https://t.co/uPOW7YQyNX
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Keith Rabois explains “Founder Mode” and its similarities to how PayPal was run in the early days
“At PayPal, we never promoted anybody based on their management skill. We promoted everybody based on their craft. So if you wanted to run the design team, you had to be the best designer. If you wanted to run the engineering team, you had to be the best engineer. If you wanted to run product, you had to be the best product person. The CFO had to be the best finance person.”
The elimination of middle management from company org charts that Airbnb founder Brian Chesky talks about and Paul Graham’s viral essay Founder Mode, Keith argues, “re-popularized ideas that are pretty old school… It’s the antithesis of hiring someone whose expertise is managing versus someone whose expertise is building.”
Keith points out that Elon Musk has always run his companies in “founder mode” with the slashing of headcount by 80% and promoting individual contributors to managers at X being perhaps the most prominent example.
But Apple has been run this way for a lot of its history too:
“At Apple you get promoted by mastering something. Not by being a generalist… Apple collates and collects a bunch of people who are literally the best in the world at 26 different things and mixes them together. That’s a much better model.”
When asked what to do if, say, the best salesperson can’t grow into a VP of sales, Keith replies that most people should be able to and you should try it anyway:
“Sometimes its mentoring, pairing them with the right person, giving them the right feedback. But at least if you promote that person, you’re not going to demoralize your team because everybody knows that they were the best salesperson… They may have to learn how to coach and mentor other people, but you have enthusiasm and energy from the rank and file.”
He contrasts this to the alternative scenario:
“If you bring in someone who’s never hit a quota, never proven that they can sell product X, and you’re like ‘Oh, you’re the new manager.’ Sometimes people are like, ‘Who the hell are you?’ And it’s a very valid critique.”
Video source: @imchrisvasquez (2024)
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Keith Rabois explains “Founder Mode” and its similarities to how PayPal was run in the early days
“At PayPal, we never promoted anybody based on their management skill. We promoted everybody based on their craft. So if you wanted to run the design team, you had to be the best designer. If you wanted to run the engineering team, you had to be the best engineer. If you wanted to run product, you had to be the best product person. The CFO had to be the best finance person.”
The elimination of middle management from company org charts that Airbnb founder Brian Chesky talks about and Paul Graham’s viral essay Founder Mode, Keith argues, “re-popularized ideas that are pretty old school… It’s the antithesis of hiring someone whose expertise is managing versus someone whose expertise is building.”
Keith points out that Elon Musk has always run his companies in “founder mode” with the slashing of headcount by 80% and promoting individual contributors to managers at X being perhaps the most prominent example.
But Apple has been run this way for a lot of its history too:
“At Apple you get promoted by mastering something. Not by being a generalist… Apple collates and collects a bunch of people who are literally the best in the world at 26 different things and mixes them together. That’s a much better model.”
When asked what to do if, say, the best salesperson can’t grow into a VP of sales, Keith replies that most people should be able to and you should try it anyway:
“Sometimes its mentoring, pairing them with the right person, giving them the right feedback. But at least if you promote that person, you’re not going to demoralize your team because everybody knows that they were the best salesperson… They may have to learn how to coach and mentor other people, but you have enthusiasm and energy from the rank and file.”
He contrasts this to the alternative scenario:
“If you bring in someone who’s never hit a quota, never proven that they can sell product X, and you’re like ‘Oh, you’re the new manager.’ Sometimes people are like, ‘Who the hell are you?’ And it’s a very valid critique.”
Video source: @imchrisvasquez (2024)
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Offshore
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Benjamin Hernandez😎
Stop paying for premium signals that lag. Our WhatsApp group is 100% free and provides the same institutional-grade levels that led us to our biggest wins today.
Join for free: 👉 https://t.co/71FIJIdBXe
Send “FREE” for instant alert access.
$GME $HOOD $SOFI $PLTR $TSM $NVDA
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Stop paying for premium signals that lag. Our WhatsApp group is 100% free and provides the same institutional-grade levels that led us to our biggest wins today.
Join for free: 👉 https://t.co/71FIJIdBXe
Send “FREE” for instant alert access.
$GME $HOOD $SOFI $PLTR $TSM $NVDA
$ELPW Speculation Pick
Grab $ELPW ~$1.84
$ELPW is the "underdog" bet in the battery space. Recent reverse split has cleaned up the chart.
One-line why: High-conviction play on CEO Xiaodan Liu’s survival strategy and global Nasdaq presence. https://t.co/MF7Tyd785w tweet
Offshore
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Javier Blas
RT @fbirol: Pleasure to meet with Saudi Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman at the IEF in Riyadh to discuss global energy markets, energy security risks, expanding clean cooking access in Africa, and prospects for #COP31
Thank you to His Royal Highness for the productive exchange https://t.co/g0BKZNu3y7
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RT @fbirol: Pleasure to meet with Saudi Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman at the IEF in Riyadh to discuss global energy markets, energy security risks, expanding clean cooking access in Africa, and prospects for #COP31
Thank you to His Royal Highness for the productive exchange https://t.co/g0BKZNu3y7
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