Chips & SaaS
RT @wallstengine: JPMorgan on Software:
“We are now in an environment where the sector isn’t just guilty until proven innocent but is now being sentenced before trial.”
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RT @wallstengine: JPMorgan on Software:
“We are now in an environment where the sector isn’t just guilty until proven innocent but is now being sentenced before trial.”
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Offshore
Video
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Dev Kantesaria on AI risk as it relates to $FICO $SPGI & $MCO
Dev frames these businesses not as pure “prediction engines,” but as fill collectors embedded inside the financial systems:
“As it relates to displacement of things like $FICO scores, $MCO ratings, and $SPGI ratings — they’re toll collectors in these industries… 𝙄 𝙙𝙤𝙣’𝙩 𝙨𝙚𝙚 𝙖𝙣𝙮 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙥𝙡𝙖𝙘𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 simply because there’s an AI model that can calculate the credit decision five percentage points better. 𝙄𝙩’𝙨 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙟𝙪𝙨𝙩 𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 — 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙚’𝙨 𝙖 𝙣𝙚𝙩𝙬𝙤𝙧𝙠 𝙚𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙘𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙖 𝙫𝙖𝙡𝙪𝙚 𝙩𝙤 𝙩𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙚 𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙜𝙤𝙚𝙨 𝙛𝙖𝙧 𝙗𝙚𝙮𝙤𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩.”
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These platforms benefit from:
• Deep network effects
• Regulatory & institutional embedment
• Industry standardization
• Decades of historical continuity
A bank doesn’t use $FICO simply because it’s the best mathematical model.
It uses $FICO because it’s the common language of credit — across underwriting, portfolio monitoring, M&A, and securitization.
Likewise, debt markets don’t rely on $SPGI or $MCO solely for accuracy.
They rely on them because their ratings are recognized, trusted, and priced into capital markets globally.
Dev makes an important point:
Even if someone offered a “better” rating for free, issuers would still face higher borrowing costs 𝘪𝘧 the market doesn’t recognize that rating as equivalent.
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Video: Grants Interest Rate Observer | Growth and Profitability (11/20/2024)
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Dev Kantesaria on AI risk as it relates to $FICO $SPGI & $MCO
Dev frames these businesses not as pure “prediction engines,” but as fill collectors embedded inside the financial systems:
“As it relates to displacement of things like $FICO scores, $MCO ratings, and $SPGI ratings — they’re toll collectors in these industries… 𝙄 𝙙𝙤𝙣’𝙩 𝙨𝙚𝙚 𝙖𝙣𝙮 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙥𝙡𝙖𝙘𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 simply because there’s an AI model that can calculate the credit decision five percentage points better. 𝙄𝙩’𝙨 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙟𝙪𝙨𝙩 𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 — 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙚’𝙨 𝙖 𝙣𝙚𝙩𝙬𝙤𝙧𝙠 𝙚𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙘𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙖 𝙫𝙖𝙡𝙪𝙚 𝙩𝙤 𝙩𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙚 𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙜𝙤𝙚𝙨 𝙛𝙖𝙧 𝙗𝙚𝙮𝙤𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩.”
___
These platforms benefit from:
• Deep network effects
• Regulatory & institutional embedment
• Industry standardization
• Decades of historical continuity
A bank doesn’t use $FICO simply because it’s the best mathematical model.
It uses $FICO because it’s the common language of credit — across underwriting, portfolio monitoring, M&A, and securitization.
Likewise, debt markets don’t rely on $SPGI or $MCO solely for accuracy.
They rely on them because their ratings are recognized, trusted, and priced into capital markets globally.
Dev makes an important point:
Even if someone offered a “better” rating for free, issuers would still face higher borrowing costs 𝘪𝘧 the market doesn’t recognize that rating as equivalent.
___
Video: Grants Interest Rate Observer | Growth and Profitability (11/20/2024)
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Javier Blas
The Trump administration wants to create a critical minerals trading bloc that will use tariffs to maintain price floors and defend against Chinese cheaper supply.
(Déjà vu of 20th century commodity policymaking -- anyone old enough to remember the International Tin Council?)
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The Trump administration wants to create a critical minerals trading bloc that will use tariffs to maintain price floors and defend against Chinese cheaper supply.
(Déjà vu of 20th century commodity policymaking -- anyone old enough to remember the International Tin Council?)
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Offshore
Photo
God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: AI benchmarks are lying to you.
Models are scoring 95%+ on tests because the test questions were IN their training data.
Scale AI published proof in May 2024.
We have no idea how smart these models actually are.
Here's the contamination problem nobody's fixing: https://t.co/uPOW7YQyNX
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RT @godofprompt: AI benchmarks are lying to you.
Models are scoring 95%+ on tests because the test questions were IN their training data.
Scale AI published proof in May 2024.
We have no idea how smart these models actually are.
Here's the contamination problem nobody's fixing: https://t.co/uPOW7YQyNX
tweet
Offshore
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Moon Dev
How to Actually Do Algorithmic Trading: The Step-By-Step Guide to Ending the Liquidation Cycle
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How to Actually Do Algorithmic Trading: The Step-By-Step Guide to Ending the Liquidation Cycle
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Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
First chart $LRCX FCF yield
Second chart $NOW FCF yield
Notice anything?
They’ve essentially flipped.
Software valuations today resemble where semiconductors traded 4 years ago. Many semiconductor valuations resemble where software once traded.
Software oversold. Semis crowded.
Mean reversion on its way?
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First chart $LRCX FCF yield
Second chart $NOW FCF yield
Notice anything?
They’ve essentially flipped.
Software valuations today resemble where semiconductors traded 4 years ago. Many semiconductor valuations resemble where software once traded.
Software oversold. Semis crowded.
Mean reversion on its way?
Perhaps a contrarian rotation worth revisiting over the next few years: modestly trimming semiconductor exposure and reallocating toward some of the strongest, widest-moat software businesses.
Ironically, SaaS and semiconductor multiples have essentially swapped.
SaaS multiples today resemble where semis traded a few years ago — and semis now trade closer to where SaaS once did.
Of course, timing is never perfect, and semiconductors could continue to run amid strong demand and supply constraints. Still, it’s a rotation worth keeping an eye on.
$ASML $NVDA $LRCX $KLAC $NOW $CSU $CRM $SMH $IGV tweet
Offshore
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Benjamin Hernandez😎
$AAPL India Strategy De-risks Supply
Apple ($AAPL) secures a 5-year tax certainty deal in India, accelerating the shift from China. Shares holding $270 as market weighs 90% DRAM price surge vs.
I surface news that shifts momentum early on $ASTS $RKLB $IREN $NVDA in pinned. https://t.co/5TiOBMVXGc
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$AAPL India Strategy De-risks Supply
Apple ($AAPL) secures a 5-year tax certainty deal in India, accelerating the shift from China. Shares holding $270 as market weighs 90% DRAM price surge vs.
I surface news that shifts momentum early on $ASTS $RKLB $IREN $NVDA in pinned. https://t.co/5TiOBMVXGc
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$RR $SOC $BMNR $BYND $PULM https://t.co/XjRSUjWbnr tweet
Offshore
Photo
Javier Blas
President Trump says he discussed with President Xi of China further purchases by Beijing of American commodities (he singled out oil, gas and soybeans). https://t.co/x4kA1yPsLe
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President Trump says he discussed with President Xi of China further purchases by Beijing of American commodities (he singled out oil, gas and soybeans). https://t.co/x4kA1yPsLe
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The Transcript
$UBER:
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$UBER:
As reported in @Uber earnings today, I’m proud to say that @UberFreight achieved breakeven in Q4 on an adjusted EBITDA basis, after 3+ years of losses. We’re just at the starting line - with a ton of work left to do for our customers - but we’re getting there! Now back to work… tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Rebecca Tinucci (@RebeccaTinucci) on X
As reported in @Uber earnings today, I’m proud to say that @UberFreight achieved breakeven in Q4 on an adjusted EBITDA basis, after 3+ years of losses. We’re just at the starting line - with a ton of work left to do for our customers - but we’re getting there!…