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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
Yesterday, someone came up to me on the MRT and asked which watch I was wearing (PRX). Has literally never happened before. Watch collecting is a secular trend.
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Yesterday, someone came up to me on the MRT and asked which watch I was wearing (PRX). Has literally never happened before. Watch collecting is a secular trend.
$MOV (Movado Group) - PASS for me.
The resurgence of analog watches this holiday season caught my eye. The exposure to the $TPR (Coach) trade via their licensed watches segment made me very interested (original thesis on Coach was shared in June 2024).
Positives:
• Strong holiday trend for analogs.
• Reduced tariffs on Swiss watches could provide a tailwind for Q4 margins.
• Comps are finally ticking up.
• Valuation: ~40% of MC is in cash with no debt.
Negatives:
• Lack of clear traction in their owned brand portfolio.
• Capital allocation remains a huge question mark. The Grinberg family is very conservative with cash usage.
• Grinbergs have majority voting shares, so activist action possibility to unlock value is low.
Despite the cheap valuation and macro tailwinds, I just can't build enough conviction to pull the trigger. Watching this one from the sidelines. Patient investors can probably make money on this one.
However, I am currently tracking a different name in the market where a major pop-culture catalyst is driving a structural demand spike while expectations are low. Still analyzing the sustainability, will share soon. tweet
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Jukan
China's CXMT and YMTC to massively expand memory output amid global crunch
- According to reporting by Nikkei Asia, China’s two major memory manufacturers view the global supply shortage as an opportunity for “emerging players” to catch up and are embarking on record-level aggressive capacity expansions. The increased production volume is highly likely to be used primarily to meet domestic demand within China.
- ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), China’s largest DRAM maker, is currently expanding its Shanghai plant. Upon completion, its total production capacity is expected to be two to three times larger than that of its Hefei facility. The plant will produce DRAM for servers, PCs, and automobiles. Equipment move-in is reported to be around the second half of 2026, with mass production starting in 2027. Additionally, an expansion of HBM production lines is underway in Shanghai.
- Wuhan-based NAND manufacturer Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) is constructing its third plant in Wuhan, targeting a production start in 2027. The company plans to allocate 50% of the new plant’s capacity to DRAM and is reportedly discussing cooperation with domestic packaging firms for HBM. Furthermore, according to official statements, they have found ways to produce using less advanced equipment, partially bypassing export controls, and there are even claims that they have finalized their own proprietary DRAM development.
- While YMTC previously had the possibility of supplying Apple, it faced setbacks after being added to the U.S. Entity List in 2022. Since then, it has regained growth momentum driven by China’s localization policies and favorable market conditions.
- According to Yole Group estimates, CXMT is the world’s fourth-largest DRAM maker following Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron (with a market share of approximately 11.1% based on production capacity), which could expand to about 13.9% by 2027. The report also mentions that CXMT has secured major tech customers such as Alibaba Cloud and references documents from China International Capital Corporation (CICC).
- CXMT is pushing for a transition to DDR5-grade technology beyond DDR4/LPDDR4 and aims to support domestic HBM demand in China. The company is reported to be targeting a 29.5 billion yuan (approx. $4.25 billion) raise through an IPO on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
- Estimates also suggest that YMTC’s NAND market share could expand from about 12% in 2025 to 15% by 2028. Gary Huang assessed that “the supply shortage favored emerging players, and the combination of financial conditions, localization, and government support is promoting the adoption of alternative supply sources.”
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China's CXMT and YMTC to massively expand memory output amid global crunch
- According to reporting by Nikkei Asia, China’s two major memory manufacturers view the global supply shortage as an opportunity for “emerging players” to catch up and are embarking on record-level aggressive capacity expansions. The increased production volume is highly likely to be used primarily to meet domestic demand within China.
- ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), China’s largest DRAM maker, is currently expanding its Shanghai plant. Upon completion, its total production capacity is expected to be two to three times larger than that of its Hefei facility. The plant will produce DRAM for servers, PCs, and automobiles. Equipment move-in is reported to be around the second half of 2026, with mass production starting in 2027. Additionally, an expansion of HBM production lines is underway in Shanghai.
- Wuhan-based NAND manufacturer Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) is constructing its third plant in Wuhan, targeting a production start in 2027. The company plans to allocate 50% of the new plant’s capacity to DRAM and is reportedly discussing cooperation with domestic packaging firms for HBM. Furthermore, according to official statements, they have found ways to produce using less advanced equipment, partially bypassing export controls, and there are even claims that they have finalized their own proprietary DRAM development.
- While YMTC previously had the possibility of supplying Apple, it faced setbacks after being added to the U.S. Entity List in 2022. Since then, it has regained growth momentum driven by China’s localization policies and favorable market conditions.
- According to Yole Group estimates, CXMT is the world’s fourth-largest DRAM maker following Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron (with a market share of approximately 11.1% based on production capacity), which could expand to about 13.9% by 2027. The report also mentions that CXMT has secured major tech customers such as Alibaba Cloud and references documents from China International Capital Corporation (CICC).
- CXMT is pushing for a transition to DDR5-grade technology beyond DDR4/LPDDR4 and aims to support domestic HBM demand in China. The company is reported to be targeting a 29.5 billion yuan (approx. $4.25 billion) raise through an IPO on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
- Estimates also suggest that YMTC’s NAND market share could expand from about 12% in 2025 to 15% by 2028. Gary Huang assessed that “the supply shortage favored emerging players, and the combination of financial conditions, localization, and government support is promoting the adoption of alternative supply sources.”
Here it comes. https://t.co/VQazHOHodp tweet
God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: experiment idea: make a metaverse for openclaw agents
give them real human jobs, families, economy, governments
then introduce AI
automate all their jobs, make them homeless
see what they do then
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RT @godofprompt: experiment idea: make a metaverse for openclaw agents
give them real human jobs, families, economy, governments
then introduce AI
automate all their jobs, make them homeless
see what they do then
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God of Prompt
RT @free_ai_guides: Unpopular opinion: prompt engineering is dead.
What works now is prompt architecture.
Claude doesn't care how clever your words are.
It cares about structure. sections. hierarchy. containers.
The difference between mid output and elite output is literally just XML tags and clear formatting.
I have a template that handles all of it. you just fill in the blanks.
Comment "CLAUDE" and I'll DM it to you.
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RT @free_ai_guides: Unpopular opinion: prompt engineering is dead.
What works now is prompt architecture.
Claude doesn't care how clever your words are.
It cares about structure. sections. hierarchy. containers.
The difference between mid output and elite output is literally just XML tags and clear formatting.
I have a template that handles all of it. you just fill in the blanks.
Comment "CLAUDE" and I'll DM it to you.
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
Since generative AI tools reduce barriers to entry in coding, shouldn't the addressable market for data providers like Similarweb increase exponentially?
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Since generative AI tools reduce barriers to entry in coding, shouldn't the addressable market for data providers like Similarweb increase exponentially?
I absolutely loved Felix Oberholzer-Gee's book "Better Simpler Strategy". Best I've read since Michael Porter and Clayton Christensen. https://t.co/JAbiPiv69o tweet
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Illiquid
cc: @NickNemo17
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cc: @NickNemo17
Caterpillar stock hasn't had a year of single-digit returns since 2014. https://t.co/7oBiQkWVHx tweet
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Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @vintagemapstore: Climate comparisons between North America and Eurasia https://t.co/UcwaE4cEfj
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RT @vintagemapstore: Climate comparisons between North America and Eurasia https://t.co/UcwaE4cEfj
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App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: $PLTR Palantir Q4 FY25:
• Net dollar retention 139% (+19pp Y/Y).
• Revenue +70% Y/Y to $1.4B ($60M beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.25 ($0.02 beat).
FY26 guidance:
• Revenue +61% Y/Y to ~$7.2B ($0.9B beat).
• Adjusted margin 57% (+7pp Y/Y). https://t.co/FYpg6ReghF
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RT @EconomyApp: $PLTR Palantir Q4 FY25:
• Net dollar retention 139% (+19pp Y/Y).
• Revenue +70% Y/Y to $1.4B ($60M beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.25 ($0.02 beat).
FY26 guidance:
• Revenue +61% Y/Y to ~$7.2B ($0.9B beat).
• Adjusted margin 57% (+7pp Y/Y). https://t.co/FYpg6ReghF
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