Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
Now I know why insiders are buying shares in Ultrajaya

cc: @aktieblogg

https://t.co/BILf3b4ERo
tweet

Jukan
Samsung Leads in HBM4 Performance, but Nvidia Backs SK Hynix for Its 'Yield'

Samsung Electronics has launched a counteroffensive in the 6th-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4) market by achieving the highest performance among the top three memory makers. However, SK Hynix is expected to maintain its market dominance, driven by its superior production yields.

As global big tech companies like Nvidia face extreme HBM supply shortages, they are prioritizing the securing of stable volumes over raw performance. In this environment, "yield competitiveness" has emerged as the decisive factor in the competition.

■ Performance (Samsung) vs. Yield (Hynix): Nvidia’s Choice
According to semiconductor industry sources on the 3rd, Samsung Electronics, which begins mass production of HBM4 this month, is recognized for its edge in performance.

By simultaneously applying the 1c process (10nm-class 6th generation) and its 4nm foundry process, Samsung has pushed HBM4 speeds to 11.7Gbps. This surpasses the 10–11Gbps range achieved by its competitor, SK Hynix, making it the highest performance in the industry.

In contrast, SK Hynix experienced delays in passing quality (qualification) tests after undergoing a redesign process for some products late last year to meet Nvidia's upgraded performance requirements. It is understood that SK Hynix currently trails Samsung in terms of absolute speed.

Despite this, industry analysts predict that SK Hynix will secure 50–60% or more of Nvidia’s initial HBM4 orders. The secret behind SK Hynix maintaining its "first vendor" status despite the performance gap lies in its overwhelming yield rates. SK Hynix already achieved yields of 80–90% with HBM3E and aims to secure similar levels for HBM4 by utilizing its proprietary packaging technology.

■ "Negligible Speed Difference... Stable Supply is Top Priority"
The reason big tech firms are fixated on yield is the unprecedented HBM supply shortage.

Not only Nvidia but also AMD, Google, and Microsoft are launching new chips that require massive amounts of HBM, causing demand to outstrip supply for both HBM4 and HBM3E.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently highlighted this imbalance, stating, "AI requires memory, and we need a significant amount of memory semiconductors this year. Because demand is much higher this year, the memory supply chain is in a difficult situation." Both Samsung and SK Hynix also officially confirmed during their Q4 earnings calls that HBM supply is failing to keep up with demand.

An industry insider familiar with the matter explained, "For customers, the performance difference between 10.5Gbps and 11Gbps is not significantly felt in real-world environments. Rather, if performance is comparable, the ability to receive a stable supply of promised volumes at the designated time is a much more critical value."

In this situation, Samsung Electronics' yield for the 1c DRAM used in HBM4 is reportedly still stuck around 60%, and the final yield after packaging is estimated to be even lower. A source familiar with Samsung's internal situation noted, "The yield for HBM-grade 1c has not yet surpassed 70%; I understand it is currently between 50% and 60%." While 1c DRAM is split between general-purpose and HBM use, the HBM-grade 1c has lower yields due to higher manufacturing complexity.

Low yields not only increase production costs but also make it difficult to meet large-scale orders on time. Furthermore, since Nvidia requires a variety of HBM speeds (ranging from 10Gbps to over 11Gbps) rather than just the fastest units, SK Hynix is expected to continue occupying more than half of the market.

■ Intensifying Market Share Battle... Second Round Expected in HBM4E
Current market forecasts suggest SK Hynix will take over half of the HBM4 market, while Samsung Electronics is expected to capture 30–40% of the volume. However, experts suggest that if Samsung succeeds in stabilizing its HBM4 yield to over 80% within the year, it could rapidly increase its m[...]

arket share using its superior performance as a weapon.

The technological race between the two companies is already shifting toward the next generation. As Samsung took the lead in performance by preemptively applying the 1c process and advanced foundry nodes for HBM4, SK Hynix is expected to introduce the 1c process for its next product, HBM4E, while further strengthening its partnership with foundry giant TSMC.

An industry official stated, "While SK Hynix applied the 1b process to HBM4, it will integrate custom base dies that meet customer needs along with the advanced 1c process for HBM4E." The base die is a key component determining HBM speed, and SK Hynix is predicted to utilize TSMC’s cutting-edge foundry processes for HBM4E.
tweet

Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
February 2026. Has anyone gone over the supply & demand month by month? https://t.co/yCiJ8sqloA
tweet

memenodes
When that alarm rings in the morning and you have to go to the job you prayed for https://t.co/UTF5Tm7DAK
tweet

Jukan
The advice I’m giving you is this: if you want to fully ride the memory super cycle, buy companies that actually manufacture memory. Not IP companies like Rambus.

This fucking company crashes every single time they announce earnings. https://t.co/QhOVVYnk5U
tweet

Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @bcaresearch: How worried are you about a disorderly unwind of the yen carry trade over the next 6 months?
- High risk
- Moderate risk
- Low risk
tweet

The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: The 2026 contrarian trade.

Selling tech - $NBIS $PATH $ALAB $GOOG $ASML
Selling risk - $BTC $ETH $MSFT $PLTR
Buying defensives - $NVO $NTR $DAR
Buying international - $BABA $MELI

And still outperforming?

https://t.co/TVqbdhKTn4 - The Few Bets That Matter
tweet

Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
RT @SenDanSullivan: Taiwan’s legislature adjourned last week without passing the budget necessary for Taiwan to defend itself. Meantime, the leadership of the opposition party responsible for this, the KMT, is in Beijing meeting with the CCP and planning bigger engagements. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what’s going on here. I’ve warned before - short changing Taiwan’s defense to kowtow to the CCP is playing with fire.
tweet

Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
What's fascinating about Aspirasi Hidup ACES IJ is that they chose to shut down their partnership with Ace Hardware themselves.

So why did they rebrand?
- 70-80% of sales came from private label
- Almost zero from Ace Hardware
- 4% royalty fee
- Mandated store expansion https://t.co/ypbv1gTMdG
tweet

Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
Casio has epic quality control. If only they could improve their design / software.

A $5 Casio watch goes hundreds of feet underwater and works fine.

A $2,000 iPhone touches a drop of water and gets completely fried. - jacob Wolinsky
tweet

Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks)
The Hong Kong GEM Index: "Smaller, high-growth, or emerging companies"

Let's see if you can spot the trend... https://t.co/vnrHOSiNvb
tweet