The Few Bets That Matter
$TMDX finished January with 894 flights, implying ~$61M in revenue.

That's ~40% of their last quarter in the bank. In a month. The company is expected to generate ~$155M Q4-25.

Yet the stock still trades at ~8x sales, with a product gaining traction, new innovation coming, new organs coming, limited competition, a defensive healthcare business, international expansion ahead, and a FY26 guidance that could be massive to the upside.

Why is this stock getting no love?

Once more, prop to @SingularityRes for the dashboard.

🚨 $TMDX is dirt cheap again, and I don’t say that often.

Markets are globally anxious and December flights were weaker than expected. They’re trending at 24.2 flights/day, below October–November averages, bringing Q4-25 to ~24.6 flights/day.

If this average holds:
~2,263 flights in Q4-25
$154.4M Q4 revenue
~$599M FY25 revenue
+35.6% YoY growth
~7x P/S

For context, OrganOx, with inferior growth and fundamentals, was acquired at 21x sales. That doesn’t mean $TMDX should trade there, but the gap is undeniable.

One odd data: 12 planes haven’t been used in December. No clear explanation why, could be slower transplant demand or maintenance keeping planes grounded, potentially increasing third-party or ground transports. I won't model this as I don't know but my assumptions are a floor, not a ceiling.

Bottom line: Even with a softer December, $TMDX can still hit midpoint guidance - guidance that’s been raised three times this year.

Looking ahead to FY26:
• New growth vectors (hearts & lungs)
• International expansion
• Minimal exposure to AI CapEx cycles or recession risk

$TMDX is once again one of the best buys in the market at this price. - The Few Bets That Matter
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Chris Hohn on what makes a great investor:

𝟏. 𝐅𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐚𝐜𝐡
𝟐. 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐦
𝟑. 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧
𝟒. 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧

Each one matters on its own — together, they’re powerful:
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𝟏. 𝐅𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐚𝐜𝐡

“I was always willing to look at the company fundamentals and not try to guess the stock market… I was always fundamental. Most investors are not fundamental… they look at data points, they say what’s the catalyst, they don’t really know what the company does.”

𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: When business quality and fundamentals are your North Star, price volatility becomes noise.

As Benjamin Graham famously said:
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

𝘍𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘭𝘴 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘶𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘸𝘪𝘯. 𝘖𝘸𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘨𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘦𝘴 𝘪𝘵 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘪𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘺 𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭.
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𝟐. 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐦

“Long-termism is key.”

𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: Time is an underappreciated risk reducer. The longer you own a high-quality business, the greater the odds the fundamentals overwhelm short-term price swings.

Most investors drastically underestimate how powerful it is to own a company that can compound earnings and free cash flow at attractive rates for many years.

𝘓𝘰𝘯𝘨-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘮 𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘸𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘸𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘮𝘢𝘤𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘥𝘰 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬.
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𝟑. 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧

“We’ve owned a few things — 10 stocks, 15 stocks. We don’t own a hundred things.”

𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: Concentration forces you to bet on your best ideas.

Stanley Druckenmiller often references what George Soros taught him:

“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”

And Warren Buffett’s punch card concept: If you only had a limited number of decisions in your lifetime, you wouldn’t waste them on your 20th-best idea.

𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 + 𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 = 𝘢𝘴𝘺𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘳𝘺.
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𝟒. 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧

“Another key point is intuition. We work with intuition.”

𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: Intuition isn’t guessing — it’s pattern recognition built from deep, repeated study.

After analyzing hundreds of businesses, you begin to recognize structural similarities: pricing power, switching costs, regulatory embedment, network effects, installed bases.

𝘋𝘪𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘴. 𝘚𝘢𝘮𝘦 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘭𝘺𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘤𝘴.
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𝐁𝐨𝐭𝐭𝐨𝐦 𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞: 𝘎𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘴𝘯’𝘵 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘴. 𝘙𝘢𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳, 𝘪𝘵’𝘴 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘥𝘦𝘦𝘱𝘭𝘺 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘴, 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘮 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘢 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦, 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘯 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘣𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘢𝘴, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘭𝘦𝘵𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘱𝘦𝘯 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘫𝘶𝘥𝘨𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵.

Video: In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management (05/14/2025)
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Fiscal.ai
Microsoft added $10.5 billion in CapEx this quarter.

That's their largest increase ever... by a long shot.

$MSFT https://t.co/pdyglFGAoY
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Startup Archive
Peter Thiel on how the PayPal team didn’t get along—and why that’s good:

“We were less smoothly functioning… but people felt ownership. They raised their voices when things were off track.”
PayPal went from $0 to $1.5B in 4 years.

Peter thinks its intense culture was key to its success:

“The PayPal period was a very compressed four years from start to when eBay acquired it. It was a relatively entrepreneurial, somewhat chaotic culture. We had a lot of very strong personalities.”

He contrasts that with hiring people who just fall-in-line and argue less:
”I think a lot of companies bias towards having people who just drink the Kool-Aid. There's plusses and minuses to both. You'll have a more smoothly functioning company, but less dissent when things are going wrong.”

The PayPal Mafia was a team that argued, obsessed, and cared deeply. It didn’t mind friction. That culture ultimately minted a generation of legendary founders: Elon Musk. Max Levchin. Reid Hoffman. David Sacks. Chad Hurley. Jeremy Stoppelman.

Video source: @twistartups @jason (2015)
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Clark Square Capital
vibecoding in yolo mode https://t.co/UPx6bygMOh
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God of Prompt
RT @rryssf_: While everyone is sharing their OpenClaw bots

Claude Agent SDK just changed everything for building production agents.

I spent 12 hours testing it.

Here's the architecture that actually works (no fluff) 👇 https://t.co/ubuq2k1S27
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: The Massive SaaS Re-Rating: Multiple Compression from Peak to Today (Last 5 Years)

1. $SAP 46x → 23x (-50%)
2. $ROP 35x → 17x (-51%)
3. $TYL 72x → 30x (-58%)
4. $U 80x → 32x (-60%)
5. $ADSK 60x → 23x (-62%)
6. $CSU 44x → 16x (-64%)
7. $INTU 58x → 21x (-64%)
8. $MANH 94x → 29x (-69%)
9. $NOW 107x → 28x (-74%)
10. $ADBE 52x → 12x (-77%)
11. $CRM 76x → 17x (-78%)
12. $DUOL 163x → 33x (-80%)*
13. $DT 113x → 23x (-80%)
14. $FIG 585x → 113x (-81%)
15. $WDAY 90x → 17x (-81%)
16. $ZM 91x → 15x (-84%)
17. $PAYC 104x → 14x (-87%)
18. $TEAM 280x → 23x (-92%)
19. $DOCU 173x → 13x (-92%)
20. $HUBS 393x → 25x (-94%)

*Within the last year
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @QualityInvest5: $FICO's scores revenue re-acceleration has been nothing short of breathtaking

– ~30% scores rev growth
– Incremental operating margins of 85-95%+
– A ridiculous 98.4% market share in loan securitization, accounting for nearly ALL of scores revenue

Genuinely asking… can you name a wider moat?
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Fiscal.ai
Meta has lost $77B over the last 5 years in its Reality Labs business.

When should they throw in the towel?

$META https://t.co/Pa66eEjX09
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