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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: Sharing some thoughts on $FICO ๐๐ฝ
Photo 1: $FICO now trades 32x NTM earnings estimates. Just four days ago, ahead of its Q1 2026 report, it traded 39x. $FICO is down ~5% in the past 5 days, so most of that multiple contraction (~18%) is due to aggressive growth in earnings.
Photo 2: Since January 2023, $FICO has a total return of 147.50% or a 34.3% CAGR despite the multiple expanding only 11.83% since then. In other words, nearly all of the return over that time period has been driven by strong earnings growth.
Photo 3: Since September 2019, $FICO has a total return of 355.80% or a 26.9% CAGR despite the multiple contracting -5.81% since then. Again, an incredible return in the face of slight multiple compression due to strong earnings growth.
Photo 4: Since September 2024, $FICO is down -24.20% while its multiple was halved, contracting -50.78%. While $FICO dropped during that period, again you see the impact strong earnings growth can have even in the face of severe multiple compression.
๐๐ณ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ด ๐ต๐ฐ๐จ๐ฆ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ณ, ๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฆโ๐ด ๐ข ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ด๐ฆ ๐ฑ๐ข๐ณ๐ข๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ณ๐ข๐ด๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ด๐ฆ๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ข๐ญ ๐ช๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ข๐ด ๐๐ฆ๐ท ๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ต๐ฆ๐ด๐ข๐ณ๐ช๐ข ๐ฉ๐ข๐ด ๐ด๐ฉ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ข๐ค๐ณ๐ฐ๐ด๐ด ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ฅ๐ค๐ข๐ด๐ต๐ด:
๐ฌ The biggest mistake investors make is focusing on the nominal P/E ratio of a high-quality company today. If you have a business that can grow its free cash flow at 15% or 20% for a decade or two, the โexpensiveโ 30x or 40x multiple you are paying today is actually a significantly lower multiple on the earnings power just a few years out. The market consistently underestimates the duration of growth for these โtoll-bridgeโ monopolies.
___
Today, $FICO trades at a more than reasonable PEG of ~1.41x.
My research also leads me to believe $FICO could have an $ASML moment within the next five years.
Hereโs what I mean by that. Those of us who have been bullish on $ASML for the last several years knew, with a high degree of certainty, that $ASML would eventually see a surge in orders as demand naturally had to increase to support the advancement of AI and chip production at an unprecedented scale.
Yes, it wasnโt linear for $ASML, and for a few years it lagged many semiconductor players. Yet, what happened? In $ASMLโs latest report, Q4 net bookings came in at โฌ13.13B (+86% YoY) versus estimates of โฌ6.85B โ nearly double. And of course the stock surged +93% in just the past year.
At some point within the next five years, I anticipate that mortgage rates (among other things) will fall meaningfully enough to drive a surge โ similar to $ASML net bookings spike โ in refinance demand, alongside higher origination volumes from lower rates, all coupled with price increases.
That combination creates a โtwin engineโ of higher volumes + higher prices, which could translate into materially higher earnings and free cash flow than what current estimates imply, especially over the long term.
Hereโs the catch: nobody knows when this will happen (similar to $ASML). However, those who are patient may be rewarded.
If you deeply understood $ASML importance and the inevitable, much greater demand for its machines, you were able to hold with confidence.
$FICO rhymes.
Two different โtoll boothsโ in two different sectors โ yet potentially very similar dynamics.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: Sharing some thoughts on $FICO ๐๐ฝ
Photo 1: $FICO now trades 32x NTM earnings estimates. Just four days ago, ahead of its Q1 2026 report, it traded 39x. $FICO is down ~5% in the past 5 days, so most of that multiple contraction (~18%) is due to aggressive growth in earnings.
Photo 2: Since January 2023, $FICO has a total return of 147.50% or a 34.3% CAGR despite the multiple expanding only 11.83% since then. In other words, nearly all of the return over that time period has been driven by strong earnings growth.
Photo 3: Since September 2019, $FICO has a total return of 355.80% or a 26.9% CAGR despite the multiple contracting -5.81% since then. Again, an incredible return in the face of slight multiple compression due to strong earnings growth.
Photo 4: Since September 2024, $FICO is down -24.20% while its multiple was halved, contracting -50.78%. While $FICO dropped during that period, again you see the impact strong earnings growth can have even in the face of severe multiple compression.
๐๐ณ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ด ๐ต๐ฐ๐จ๐ฆ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ณ, ๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฆโ๐ด ๐ข ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ด๐ฆ ๐ฑ๐ข๐ณ๐ข๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ณ๐ข๐ด๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ด๐ฆ๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ข๐ญ ๐ช๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ข๐ด ๐๐ฆ๐ท ๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ต๐ฆ๐ด๐ข๐ณ๐ช๐ข ๐ฉ๐ข๐ด ๐ด๐ฉ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ข๐ค๐ณ๐ฐ๐ด๐ด ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ฅ๐ค๐ข๐ด๐ต๐ด:
๐ฌ The biggest mistake investors make is focusing on the nominal P/E ratio of a high-quality company today. If you have a business that can grow its free cash flow at 15% or 20% for a decade or two, the โexpensiveโ 30x or 40x multiple you are paying today is actually a significantly lower multiple on the earnings power just a few years out. The market consistently underestimates the duration of growth for these โtoll-bridgeโ monopolies.
___
Today, $FICO trades at a more than reasonable PEG of ~1.41x.
My research also leads me to believe $FICO could have an $ASML moment within the next five years.
Hereโs what I mean by that. Those of us who have been bullish on $ASML for the last several years knew, with a high degree of certainty, that $ASML would eventually see a surge in orders as demand naturally had to increase to support the advancement of AI and chip production at an unprecedented scale.
Yes, it wasnโt linear for $ASML, and for a few years it lagged many semiconductor players. Yet, what happened? In $ASMLโs latest report, Q4 net bookings came in at โฌ13.13B (+86% YoY) versus estimates of โฌ6.85B โ nearly double. And of course the stock surged +93% in just the past year.
At some point within the next five years, I anticipate that mortgage rates (among other things) will fall meaningfully enough to drive a surge โ similar to $ASML net bookings spike โ in refinance demand, alongside higher origination volumes from lower rates, all coupled with price increases.
That combination creates a โtwin engineโ of higher volumes + higher prices, which could translate into materially higher earnings and free cash flow than what current estimates imply, especially over the long term.
Hereโs the catch: nobody knows when this will happen (similar to $ASML). However, those who are patient may be rewarded.
If you deeply understood $ASML importance and the inevitable, much greater demand for its machines, you were able to hold with confidence.
$FICO rhymes.
Two different โtoll boothsโ in two different sectors โ yet potentially very similar dynamics.
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God of Prompt
I built a prompt that turns years of ChatGPT/Claude conversations into a searchable knowledge base for your @openclaw bot.
Upload your ZIP exports โ Get atomic notes, knowledge graph, decision log, prompt library, and pattern analysis.
Steal it ๐ https://t.co/t9wlQda3jl
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I built a prompt that turns years of ChatGPT/Claude conversations into a searchable knowledge base for your @openclaw bot.
Upload your ZIP exports โ Get atomic notes, knowledge graph, decision log, prompt library, and pattern analysis.
Steal it ๐ https://t.co/t9wlQda3jl
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Fiscal.ai
Talk about an asset-light business.
LTM Index Revenue: $1.76B
LTM Index EBITDA: $1.37B
MSCI generates a whopping 76% EBITDA Margin on its Index business.
$MSCI https://t.co/B8AulJPN53
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Talk about an asset-light business.
LTM Index Revenue: $1.76B
LTM Index EBITDA: $1.37B
MSCI generates a whopping 76% EBITDA Margin on its Index business.
$MSCI https://t.co/B8AulJPN53
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Startup Archive
โIf youโre not careful, the decision process can basically become a war of attrition. Whoever has the most stamina will win; eventually the other party, with the opposite opinion, will just capitulate. . . That is the worst decision-making process in the world.โ
- Jeff Bezos
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โIf youโre not careful, the decision process can basically become a war of attrition. Whoever has the most stamina will win; eventually the other party, with the opposite opinion, will just capitulate. . . That is the worst decision-making process in the world.โ
- Jeff Bezos
Disagree and Commit by Jeff Bezos https://t.co/pjRrv1hXyi tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
15 Quality Compounders PEG <2.00 ๐
1. $tdg 1.99 โ๏ธ
2. $asml 1.96 โ๏ธ
3. $v 1.87 ๐ต
4. $ma 1.63 ๐ณ
5. $msft 1.58 โ๏ธ
6. $meta 1.49 ๐ธ
7. $intu 1.46๐ฐ
8. $now 1.44 ๐
9. $fico 1.41 ๐ฆ
10. $amzn 1.39 ๐ฆ
11. $nvda 1.35 ๐ฝ
12. $nflx 1.35 ๐บ
13. $meli 1.11 ๐ค
14. $csu 0.98 ๐
15. $tsm 0.95 ๐
___
*peg (ntm p/e โ 26โ - 28โ eps cagr est)
**($nvda 27โ - 29โ eps cagr est)
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15 Quality Compounders PEG <2.00 ๐
1. $tdg 1.99 โ๏ธ
2. $asml 1.96 โ๏ธ
3. $v 1.87 ๐ต
4. $ma 1.63 ๐ณ
5. $msft 1.58 โ๏ธ
6. $meta 1.49 ๐ธ
7. $intu 1.46๐ฐ
8. $now 1.44 ๐
9. $fico 1.41 ๐ฆ
10. $amzn 1.39 ๐ฆ
11. $nvda 1.35 ๐ฝ
12. $nflx 1.35 ๐บ
13. $meli 1.11 ๐ค
14. $csu 0.98 ๐
15. $tsm 0.95 ๐
___
*peg (ntm p/e โ 26โ - 28โ eps cagr est)
**($nvda 27โ - 29โ eps cagr est)
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God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: ๐จ Samsung just broke the Lottery Ticket Hypothesis
Everyone's been searching for ONE winning subnetwork in neural networks.
Turns out we should've been finding MULTIPLE specialized ones.
This changes everything about neural network pruning ๐ https://t.co/9CGWrD1P42
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RT @godofprompt: ๐จ Samsung just broke the Lottery Ticket Hypothesis
Everyone's been searching for ONE winning subnetwork in neural networks.
Turns out we should've been finding MULTIPLE specialized ones.
This changes everything about neural network pruning ๐ https://t.co/9CGWrD1P42
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