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Startup Archive
Paul Graham explains why you shouldn’t try to be a visionary
“Empirically, the way to do really big things seems to be to start with small things and grow them bigger. Want to dominate microcomputer software for decades? Start by writing a basic interpreter for a machine with a couple thousand users. Want to make the universal website and a giant vacuum for people’s time? Start by building a website where Harvard undergrads can stalk one another.”
Paul Graham continues:
“Neither Bill Gates nor Mark Zuckerberg knew how big their companies were going to get. All they knew was that they were onto something… Maybe it’s a bad idea to have really big ambitions initially, because the bigger your ambitions, the longer they’re going to take to realize and the long you’re projecting into the future, the more likely you’re going to be wrong.”
PG suggests starting with something small that works instead.
“I think the best way to do these big ideas is not to try and identify a precise point in the future and say, How do I get from here to there? Like the popular image of a visionary. I think a better model is Columbus who thought there was something to the West—I’ll sail westward. Start with something that works, that you know works, that’s small, and then when the opportunity comes to move, move westward. The popular image of a visionary is someone with a very precise view of the future, but empirically it’s probably better to have a blurry one.”
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Paul Graham explains why you shouldn’t try to be a visionary
“Empirically, the way to do really big things seems to be to start with small things and grow them bigger. Want to dominate microcomputer software for decades? Start by writing a basic interpreter for a machine with a couple thousand users. Want to make the universal website and a giant vacuum for people’s time? Start by building a website where Harvard undergrads can stalk one another.”
Paul Graham continues:
“Neither Bill Gates nor Mark Zuckerberg knew how big their companies were going to get. All they knew was that they were onto something… Maybe it’s a bad idea to have really big ambitions initially, because the bigger your ambitions, the longer they’re going to take to realize and the long you’re projecting into the future, the more likely you’re going to be wrong.”
PG suggests starting with something small that works instead.
“I think the best way to do these big ideas is not to try and identify a precise point in the future and say, How do I get from here to there? Like the popular image of a visionary. I think a better model is Columbus who thought there was something to the West—I’ll sail westward. Start with something that works, that you know works, that’s small, and then when the opportunity comes to move, move westward. The popular image of a visionary is someone with a very precise view of the future, but empirically it’s probably better to have a blurry one.”
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Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Microsoft's spread between Operating Income & Free Cash Flow has never been wider.
Is the CapEx worth it?
$MSFT https://t.co/slzJUbmce9
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Microsoft's spread between Operating Income & Free Cash Flow has never been wider.
Is the CapEx worth it?
$MSFT https://t.co/slzJUbmce9
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Sharing some thoughts on $FICO 👇🏽
Photo 1: $FICO now trades 32x NTM earnings estimates. Just four days ago, ahead of its Q1 2026 report, it traded 39x. $FICO is down ~5% in the past 5 days, so most of that multiple contraction (~18%) is due to aggressive growth in earnings.
Photo 2: Since January 2023, $FICO has a total return of 147.50% or a 34.3% CAGR despite the multiple expanding only 11.83% since then. In other words, nearly all of the return over that time period has been driven by strong earnings growth.
Photo 3: Since September 2019, $FICO has a total return of 355.80% or a 26.9% CAGR despite the multiple contracting -5.81% since then. Again, an incredible return in the face of slight multiple compression due to strong earnings growth.
Photo 4: Since September 2024, $FICO is down -24.20% while its multiple was halved, contracting -50.78%. While $FICO dropped during that period, again you see the impact strong earnings growth can have even in the face of severe multiple compression.
𝘉𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘰𝘨𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳, 𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦’𝘴 𝘢 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘱𝘩𝘳𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘴𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘢𝘴 𝘋𝘦𝘷 𝘒𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘴𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘢 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘤𝘳𝘰𝘴𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘥𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘴:
💬 The biggest mistake investors make is focusing on the nominal P/E ratio of a high-quality company today. If you have a business that can grow its free cash flow at 15% or 20% for a decade or two, the ‘expensive’ 30x or 40x multiple you are paying today is actually a significantly lower multiple on the earnings power just a few years out. The market consistently underestimates the duration of growth for these ‘toll-bridge’ monopolies.
___
Today, $FICO trades at a more than reasonable PEG of ~1.41x.
My research also leads me to believe $FICO could have an $ASML moment within the next five years.
Here’s what I mean by that. Those of us who have been bullish on $ASML for the last several years knew, with a high degree of certainty, that $ASML would eventually see a surge in orders as demand naturally had to increase to support the advancement of AI and chip production at an unprecedented scale.
Yes, it wasn’t linear for $ASML, and for a few years it lagged many semiconductor players. Yet, what happened? In $ASML’s latest report, Q4 net bookings came in at €13.13B (+86% YoY) versus estimates of €6.85B — nearly double. And of course the stock surged +93% in just the past year.
At some point within the next five years, I anticipate that mortgage rates (among other things) will fall meaningfully enough to drive a surge — similar to $ASML net bookings spike — in refinance demand, alongside higher origination volumes from lower rates, all coupled with price increases.
That combination creates a “twin engine” of higher volumes + higher prices, which could translate into materially higher earnings and free cash flow than what current estimates imply, especially over the long term.
Here’s the catch: nobody knows when this will happen (similar to $ASML). However, those who are patient may be rewarded.
If you deeply understood $ASML importance and the inevitable, much greater demand for its machines, you were able to hold with confidence.
$FICO rhymes.
Two different “toll booths” in two different sectors — yet potentially very similar dynamics.
tweet
RT @DimitryNakhla: Sharing some thoughts on $FICO 👇🏽
Photo 1: $FICO now trades 32x NTM earnings estimates. Just four days ago, ahead of its Q1 2026 report, it traded 39x. $FICO is down ~5% in the past 5 days, so most of that multiple contraction (~18%) is due to aggressive growth in earnings.
Photo 2: Since January 2023, $FICO has a total return of 147.50% or a 34.3% CAGR despite the multiple expanding only 11.83% since then. In other words, nearly all of the return over that time period has been driven by strong earnings growth.
Photo 3: Since September 2019, $FICO has a total return of 355.80% or a 26.9% CAGR despite the multiple contracting -5.81% since then. Again, an incredible return in the face of slight multiple compression due to strong earnings growth.
Photo 4: Since September 2024, $FICO is down -24.20% while its multiple was halved, contracting -50.78%. While $FICO dropped during that period, again you see the impact strong earnings growth can have even in the face of severe multiple compression.
𝘉𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘰𝘨𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳, 𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦’𝘴 𝘢 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘱𝘩𝘳𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘴𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘢𝘴 𝘋𝘦𝘷 𝘒𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘴𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘢 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘤𝘳𝘰𝘴𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘥𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘴:
💬 The biggest mistake investors make is focusing on the nominal P/E ratio of a high-quality company today. If you have a business that can grow its free cash flow at 15% or 20% for a decade or two, the ‘expensive’ 30x or 40x multiple you are paying today is actually a significantly lower multiple on the earnings power just a few years out. The market consistently underestimates the duration of growth for these ‘toll-bridge’ monopolies.
___
Today, $FICO trades at a more than reasonable PEG of ~1.41x.
My research also leads me to believe $FICO could have an $ASML moment within the next five years.
Here’s what I mean by that. Those of us who have been bullish on $ASML for the last several years knew, with a high degree of certainty, that $ASML would eventually see a surge in orders as demand naturally had to increase to support the advancement of AI and chip production at an unprecedented scale.
Yes, it wasn’t linear for $ASML, and for a few years it lagged many semiconductor players. Yet, what happened? In $ASML’s latest report, Q4 net bookings came in at €13.13B (+86% YoY) versus estimates of €6.85B — nearly double. And of course the stock surged +93% in just the past year.
At some point within the next five years, I anticipate that mortgage rates (among other things) will fall meaningfully enough to drive a surge — similar to $ASML net bookings spike — in refinance demand, alongside higher origination volumes from lower rates, all coupled with price increases.
That combination creates a “twin engine” of higher volumes + higher prices, which could translate into materially higher earnings and free cash flow than what current estimates imply, especially over the long term.
Here’s the catch: nobody knows when this will happen (similar to $ASML). However, those who are patient may be rewarded.
If you deeply understood $ASML importance and the inevitable, much greater demand for its machines, you were able to hold with confidence.
$FICO rhymes.
Two different “toll booths” in two different sectors — yet potentially very similar dynamics.
tweet
Offshore
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God of Prompt
I built a prompt that turns years of ChatGPT/Claude conversations into a searchable knowledge base for your @openclaw bot.
Upload your ZIP exports → Get atomic notes, knowledge graph, decision log, prompt library, and pattern analysis.
Steal it 👇 https://t.co/t9wlQda3jl
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I built a prompt that turns years of ChatGPT/Claude conversations into a searchable knowledge base for your @openclaw bot.
Upload your ZIP exports → Get atomic notes, knowledge graph, decision log, prompt library, and pattern analysis.
Steal it 👇 https://t.co/t9wlQda3jl
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Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Talk about an asset-light business.
LTM Index Revenue: $1.76B
LTM Index EBITDA: $1.37B
MSCI generates a whopping 76% EBITDA Margin on its Index business.
$MSCI https://t.co/B8AulJPN53
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Talk about an asset-light business.
LTM Index Revenue: $1.76B
LTM Index EBITDA: $1.37B
MSCI generates a whopping 76% EBITDA Margin on its Index business.
$MSCI https://t.co/B8AulJPN53
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