The Few Bets That Matter
The $HIMS community is one which didn't adapt, to my opinion.

Peptides aren’t a bull case, they’re hope.

As of today, $HIMS has no growth catalyst. The next product doesn’t exist. Peptides might be it someday, but nothing says $HIMS wins that race. Peptides are just a potential product for all healthcare companies.

Adapting is key in the markets. Your first opinion is in the past, what matters is how you change depending on new information.

No disrespect to any holders, I know many smart investors still buying $HIMS, I just happen to have a different opinion.

I was one of the biggest $BTC and $MSTR bulls over the last months.

I was wrong. I changed my mind. I adapted my portfolio. X loves conviction, while markets reward adaptability.

Being wrong is fine.
Staying wrong is not. https://t.co/h5E78ji5aH - The Few Bets That Matter
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Updated NTM P/E & FCF Yields — Companies That Reported in the Last 2 Weeks💵

$V 24x | 4.10%
$GE 41x | 2.64%
$MA 27x | 3.70%
$NVR 17x | 5.83%
$BRO 16x | 6.78%
$WM 26x | 4.20%
$ADP 21x | 5.50%
$GEV 52x | 2.46%
$FAST 35x | 2.17%
$DHR 26x | 3.67%
$TMO 23x | 3.24%
$FICO 32x | 2.90%
$NOW 28x | 4.77%
$ASML 41x | 1.73%
$META 24x | 1.27%
$MSCI 31x | 3.46%
$KLAC 38x | 2.18%
$ISRG 50x | 2.24%
$AAPL 29x | 3.78%
$LRCX 40x | 1.94%
$NFLX 26x | 3.28%
$MSFT 24x | 2.06%
$NDAQ 25x | 4.27%

*Multiples not adjusted for SBC
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God of Prompt
> claude: best code writer, but stubborn on deprecated libraries. sometimes ignores your .md files entirely

> gemini: dementia-level hallucinations, but unmatched context window. can ingest 800-file codebases in one shot

> codex: 70% more PRs at OpenAI. compaction lets it work across millions of tokens. long-horizon agentic beast

> minimax: matches claude at 10% cost. best open-source default right now

> kimi: hit or miss. when it hits, rivals SOTA. when it misses, sad

> glm-4.7: $3/month claude alternative. 73.8% SWE-bench, preserved thinking across turns. underrated pick

> deepseek: smart but slow. good for debugging and planning big changes
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App Economy Insights
🗓️ Another massive earnings week ahead!

What are you watching?

• Monday: $PLTR $DIS
• Tuesday: $AMD $PYPL $PEP $MRK $PFE $CMG $AMGN $NTDOY
• Wednesday: $GOOG $UBER $LLY $NVO $ABBV $SNAP $TTWO
• Thursday: $AMZN $RBLX $RDDT $AFRM $TEAM

All visualized in our newsletter. https://t.co/5FSZTP1qs1
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Over the last five years, $MA has consistently converted ~50%–70% of incremental revenue into operating income and just posted its 𝙝𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙞𝙣𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙖𝙡 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙜𝙞𝙣 𝙤𝙛 72% 💳

2020→2021: 56%
2021→2022: 65%
2022→2023: 61%
2023→2024: 51%
2024→2025: 72% https://t.co/JEGf2s26V8

Chris Hohn, founder of TCI, views high incremental margins as one of the strongest signals of a company’s moat & pricing power💸

Incremental operating margin tells you how much additional operating income a business generates for every additional $1 of revenue.

Here’s how to calculate it:

Pick two periods (Year 1 → Year 2)

Year 1 Revenue: $10B
Year 2 Revenue: $12B
Δ 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞: $𝟐𝐁

Year 1 Operating Income: $2B
Year 2 Operating Income: $3B
Δ 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞: $𝟏𝐁

𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧 = Δ 𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 / Δ 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞

So: $1B / $2B = 50%

𝘔𝘦𝘢𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨: 50 cents of every new $1 of revenue fell to operating profit.
___

Why this matters: High incremental margins usually signal low incremental costs, pricing power, & structural operating leverage — the traits that allow a great business to compound faster as it scales. It’s one of the cleanest ways to see whether a company’s moat is strengthening & efficiently scaling.

I’ve included 4 high-quality stocks with their incremental operating margins since 2021 for further example 👇🏽

$FICO $MSFT $MA $NFLX - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
The average FCF margin across $SPY is ~10%

Here are 15 companies with FCF margins ≥30% or 3x the market — in other words, for every $100 of revenue, they produce $30+ in FCF💰

1. $LRCX 30%
2. $CPRT 30%
3. $MCO 32%
4. $ALAB 32%
5. $BKNG 32%
6. $INTU 33%
7. $ASML 34%
8. $KLAC 34%
9. $NOW 35%
10. $FICO 36%
11. $SPGI 36%
12. $PANW 39%
13. $NVDA 41%
14. $PLTR 46%
15. $ICE 46%
16. $ANET 48%
17. $MSCI 49%
18. $MA 52%
19. $APP 54%
20. $V 55%

*LTM FCF Margin
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Moon Dev
you must test your trading strategies across multiple folds

or you are just gambling https://t.co/tTPHJOk3hg
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God of Prompt
RT @rryssf_: https://t.co/POKe7RUmoU
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God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: Perplexity just replaced my entire research workflow.

No more opening 50 tabs. No more saving bookmarks. No more "where did I see that?"

Here are 10 Perplexity prompts that replaced my research tools: https://t.co/KryzV5nPk0
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The Few Bets That Matter
Saylor doens't have a liquidation price.
He had an expiration date.

Very different situations.

$BTC $MSTR
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