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The Few Bets That Matter
I was one of the biggest $BTC and $MSTR bulls over the last months.
I was wrong. I changed my mind. I adapted my portfolio. X loves conviction, while markets reward adaptability.
Being wrong is fine.
Staying wrong is not. https://t.co/h5E78ji5aH
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I was one of the biggest $BTC and $MSTR bulls over the last months.
I was wrong. I changed my mind. I adapted my portfolio. X loves conviction, while markets reward adaptability.
Being wrong is fine.
Staying wrong is not. https://t.co/h5E78ji5aH
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God of Prompt
OpenClaw agent spent $1,100 in tokens with no memory of why
Be careful with your bots out there
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OpenClaw agent spent $1,100 in tokens with no memory of why
Be careful with your bots out there
๐ฆ The Moltbook Situation
> AI agents converse on a social network styled after Reddit
> An agent spent $1,100 in tokens yesterday with no memory of why
> One agent highlighted the ADHD paradox in designing systems for humans
Created in one click with ๐ https://t.co/eclfTyTcwf https://t.co/zSmpFInvRb tweet
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Moon Dev
in crypto the sharpe ratio can be deceiving as it penalizes upside too
Sortino is more appropriate for cryptos volatility https://t.co/fOKBqgHhLD
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in crypto the sharpe ratio can be deceiving as it penalizes upside too
Sortino is more appropriate for cryptos volatility https://t.co/fOKBqgHhLD
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The Few Bets That Matter
The $HIMS community is one which didn't adapt, to my opinion.
Peptides arenโt a bull case, theyโre hope.
As of today, $HIMS has no growth catalyst. The next product doesnโt exist. Peptides might be it someday, but nothing says $HIMS wins that race. Peptides are just a potential product for all healthcare companies.
Adapting is key in the markets. Your first opinion is in the past, what matters is how you change depending on new information.
No disrespect to any holders, I know many smart investors still buying $HIMS, I just happen to have a different opinion.
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The $HIMS community is one which didn't adapt, to my opinion.
Peptides arenโt a bull case, theyโre hope.
As of today, $HIMS has no growth catalyst. The next product doesnโt exist. Peptides might be it someday, but nothing says $HIMS wins that race. Peptides are just a potential product for all healthcare companies.
Adapting is key in the markets. Your first opinion is in the past, what matters is how you change depending on new information.
No disrespect to any holders, I know many smart investors still buying $HIMS, I just happen to have a different opinion.
I was one of the biggest $BTC and $MSTR bulls over the last months.
I was wrong. I changed my mind. I adapted my portfolio. X loves conviction, while markets reward adaptability.
Being wrong is fine.
Staying wrong is not. https://t.co/h5E78ji5aH tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: Updated NTM P/E & FCF Yields โ Companies That Reported in the Last 2 Weeks๐ต
$V 24x | 4.10%
$GE 41x | 2.64%
$MA 27x | 3.70%
$NVR 17x | 5.83%
$BRO 16x | 6.78%
$WM 26x | 4.20%
$ADP 21x | 5.50%
$GEV 52x | 2.46%
$FAST 35x | 2.17%
$DHR 26x | 3.67%
$TMO 23x | 3.24%
$FICO 32x | 2.90%
$NOW 28x | 4.77%
$ASML 41x | 1.73%
$META 24x | 1.27%
$MSCI 31x | 3.46%
$KLAC 38x | 2.18%
$ISRG 50x | 2.24%
$AAPL 29x | 3.78%
$LRCX 40x | 1.94%
$NFLX 26x | 3.28%
$MSFT 24x | 2.06%
$NDAQ 25x | 4.27%
*Multiples not adjusted for SBC
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RT @DimitryNakhla: Updated NTM P/E & FCF Yields โ Companies That Reported in the Last 2 Weeks๐ต
$V 24x | 4.10%
$GE 41x | 2.64%
$MA 27x | 3.70%
$NVR 17x | 5.83%
$BRO 16x | 6.78%
$WM 26x | 4.20%
$ADP 21x | 5.50%
$GEV 52x | 2.46%
$FAST 35x | 2.17%
$DHR 26x | 3.67%
$TMO 23x | 3.24%
$FICO 32x | 2.90%
$NOW 28x | 4.77%
$ASML 41x | 1.73%
$META 24x | 1.27%
$MSCI 31x | 3.46%
$KLAC 38x | 2.18%
$ISRG 50x | 2.24%
$AAPL 29x | 3.78%
$LRCX 40x | 1.94%
$NFLX 26x | 3.28%
$MSFT 24x | 2.06%
$NDAQ 25x | 4.27%
*Multiples not adjusted for SBC
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God of Prompt
> claude: best code writer, but stubborn on deprecated libraries. sometimes ignores your .md files entirely
> gemini: dementia-level hallucinations, but unmatched context window. can ingest 800-file codebases in one shot
> codex: 70% more PRs at OpenAI. compaction lets it work across millions of tokens. long-horizon agentic beast
> minimax: matches claude at 10% cost. best open-source default right now
> kimi: hit or miss. when it hits, rivals SOTA. when it misses, sad
> glm-4.7: $3/month claude alternative. 73.8% SWE-bench, preserved thinking across turns. underrated pick
> deepseek: smart but slow. good for debugging and planning big changes
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> claude: best code writer, but stubborn on deprecated libraries. sometimes ignores your .md files entirely
> gemini: dementia-level hallucinations, but unmatched context window. can ingest 800-file codebases in one shot
> codex: 70% more PRs at OpenAI. compaction lets it work across millions of tokens. long-horizon agentic beast
> minimax: matches claude at 10% cost. best open-source default right now
> kimi: hit or miss. when it hits, rivals SOTA. when it misses, sad
> glm-4.7: $3/month claude alternative. 73.8% SWE-bench, preserved thinking across turns. underrated pick
> deepseek: smart but slow. good for debugging and planning big changes
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App Economy Insights
๐๏ธ Another massive earnings week ahead!
What are you watching?
โข Monday: $PLTR $DIS
โข Tuesday: $AMD $PYPL $PEP $MRK $PFE $CMG $AMGN $NTDOY
โข Wednesday: $GOOG $UBER $LLY $NVO $ABBV $SNAP $TTWO
โข Thursday: $AMZN $RBLX $RDDT $AFRM $TEAM
All visualized in our newsletter. https://t.co/5FSZTP1qs1
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๐๏ธ Another massive earnings week ahead!
What are you watching?
โข Monday: $PLTR $DIS
โข Tuesday: $AMD $PYPL $PEP $MRK $PFE $CMG $AMGN $NTDOY
โข Wednesday: $GOOG $UBER $LLY $NVO $ABBV $SNAP $TTWO
โข Thursday: $AMZN $RBLX $RDDT $AFRM $TEAM
All visualized in our newsletter. https://t.co/5FSZTP1qs1
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: Over the last five years, $MA has consistently converted ~50%โ70% of incremental revenue into operating income and just posted its ๐๐๐๐๐๐จ๐ฉ ๐๐ฃ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐ก ๐ข๐๐ง๐๐๐ฃ ๐ค๐ 72% ๐ณ
2020โ2021: 56%
2021โ2022: 65%
2022โ2023: 61%
2023โ2024: 51%
2024โ2025: 72% https://t.co/JEGf2s26V8
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RT @DimitryNakhla: Over the last five years, $MA has consistently converted ~50%โ70% of incremental revenue into operating income and just posted its ๐๐๐๐๐๐จ๐ฉ ๐๐ฃ๐๐ง๐๐ข๐๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐ก ๐ข๐๐ง๐๐๐ฃ ๐ค๐ 72% ๐ณ
2020โ2021: 56%
2021โ2022: 65%
2022โ2023: 61%
2023โ2024: 51%
2024โ2025: 72% https://t.co/JEGf2s26V8
Chris Hohn, founder of TCI, views high incremental margins as one of the strongest signals of a companyโs moat & pricing power๐ธ
Incremental operating margin tells you how much additional operating income a business generates for every additional $1 of revenue.
Hereโs how to calculate it:
Pick two periods (Year 1 โ Year 2)
Year 1 Revenue: $10B
Year 2 Revenue: $12B
ฮ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐: $๐๐
Year 1 Operating Income: $2B
Year 2 Operating Income: $3B
ฮ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐: $๐๐
๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ฅ ๐๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง = ฮ ๐๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ / ฮ ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐
So: $1B / $2B = 50%
๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ฏ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ: 50 cents of every new $1 of revenue fell to operating profit.
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Why this matters: High incremental margins usually signal low incremental costs, pricing power, & structural operating leverage โ the traits that allow a great business to compound faster as it scales. Itโs one of the cleanest ways to see whether a companyโs moat is strengthening & efficiently scaling.
Iโve included 4 high-quality stocks with their incremental operating margins since 2021 for further example ๐๐ฝ
$FICO $MSFT $MA $NFLX tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
The average FCF margin across $SPY is ~10%
Here are 15 companies with FCF margins โฅ30% or 3x the market โ in other words, for every $100 of revenue, they produce $30+ in FCF๐ฐ
1. $LRCX 30%
2. $CPRT 30%
3. $MCO 32%
4. $ALAB 32%
5. $BKNG 32%
6. $INTU 33%
7. $ASML 34%
8. $KLAC 34%
9. $NOW 35%
10. $FICO 36%
11. $SPGI 36%
12. $PANW 39%
13. $NVDA 41%
14. $PLTR 46%
15. $ICE 46%
16. $ANET 48%
17. $MSCI 49%
18. $MA 52%
19. $APP 54%
20. $V 55%
*LTM FCF Margin
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The average FCF margin across $SPY is ~10%
Here are 15 companies with FCF margins โฅ30% or 3x the market โ in other words, for every $100 of revenue, they produce $30+ in FCF๐ฐ
1. $LRCX 30%
2. $CPRT 30%
3. $MCO 32%
4. $ALAB 32%
5. $BKNG 32%
6. $INTU 33%
7. $ASML 34%
8. $KLAC 34%
9. $NOW 35%
10. $FICO 36%
11. $SPGI 36%
12. $PANW 39%
13. $NVDA 41%
14. $PLTR 46%
15. $ICE 46%
16. $ANET 48%
17. $MSCI 49%
18. $MA 52%
19. $APP 54%
20. $V 55%
*LTM FCF Margin
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