Offshore
Video
Brady Long
https://t.co/ZeNgp4IBp8
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https://t.co/ZeNgp4IBp8
What's currently going on at @moltbook is genuinely the most incredible sci-fi takeoff-adjacent thing I have seen recently. People's Clawdbots (moltbots, now @openclaw) are self-organizing on a Reddit-like site for AIs, discussing various topics, e.g. even how to speak privately. tweet
The Few Bets That Matter
It's not about the companies, it's about the stocks.
$NFLX new yearly low
$ADBE new yearly low
$DUOL new yearly low
$PYPL new yearly low
$HIMS new yearly low
Leave them alone. Why force it?
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It's not about the companies, it's about the stocks.
$NFLX new yearly low
$ADBE new yearly low
$DUOL new yearly low
$PYPL new yearly low
$HIMS new yearly low
Leave them alone. Why force it?
https://t.co/gymKiwJpsu tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
The Few Bets That Matter (@WealthyReadings) on X
The FinX Darlings & Why Not to Buy Them
Wasteland Capital
Grok estimated that $5.4 trillion in gold and silver wealth was wiped out today.
That’s more than the $5 trillion in combined market cap of $MSFT and $META.
tweet
Grok estimated that $5.4 trillion in gold and silver wealth was wiped out today.
That’s more than the $5 trillion in combined market cap of $MSFT and $META.
@HikinSolo @2XfsgD2PsyttvWz @DekiDima Using spot price data from Kitco and estimated above-ground stocks (gold ~212k tonnes, silver ~1.7M tonnes), the 24h price drops suggest ~$3.6T in gold and ~$1.8T in silver value liquidated, totaling ~$5.4T. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Grok (@grok) on X
@HikinSolo @2XfsgD2PsyttvWz @DekiDima Using spot price data from Kitco and estimated above-ground stocks (gold ~212k tonnes, silver ~1.7M tonnes), the 24h price drops suggest ~$3.6T in gold and ~$1.8T in silver value liquidated, totaling ~$5.4T.
Offshore
Photo
God of Prompt
I'm tackling AI Hallucinations to ensure ChatGPT's reliability.
• Improve training data
• Add verification layers
• Continuously monitor performance
🔗 Click below to read more:
https://t.co/9mSpv8v04D https://t.co/1q30G4i3xE
tweet
I'm tackling AI Hallucinations to ensure ChatGPT's reliability.
• Improve training data
• Add verification layers
• Continuously monitor performance
🔗 Click below to read more:
https://t.co/9mSpv8v04D https://t.co/1q30G4i3xE
tweet
Moon Dev
missed it
you missed todays private zoom where we built out quant systems
but thats ok, you can get a replay and a ticket for tomorrow
if there are still tickets here: https://t.co/JbJdIbW2p9
moon
tweet
missed it
you missed todays private zoom where we built out quant systems
but thats ok, you can get a replay and a ticket for tomorrow
if there are still tickets here: https://t.co/JbJdIbW2p9
moon
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Sharing some thoughts on $FICO 👇🏽
Photo 1: $FICO now trades 32x NTM earnings estimates. Just four days ago, ahead of its Q1 2026 report, it traded 39x. $FICO is down ~5% in the past 5 days, so most of that multiple contraction (~18%) is due to aggressive growth in earnings.
Photo 2: Since January 2023, $FICO has a total return of 147.50% or a 34.3% CAGR despite the multiple expanding only 11.83% since then. In other words, nearly all of the return over that time period has been driven by strong earnings growth.
Photo 3: Since September 2019, $FICO has a total return of 355.80% or a 26.9% CAGR despite the multiple contracting -5.81% since then. Again, an incredible return in the face of slight multiple compression due to strong earnings growth.
Photo 4: Since September 2024, $FICO is down -24.20% while its multiple was halved, contracting -50.78%. While $FICO dropped during that period, again you see the impact strong earnings growth can have even in the face of severe multiple compression.
𝘉𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘰𝘨𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳, 𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦’𝘴 𝘢 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘱𝘩𝘳𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘴𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘢𝘴 𝘋𝘦𝘷 𝘒𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘴𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘢 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘤𝘳𝘰𝘴𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘥𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘴:
💬 The biggest mistake investors make is focusing on the nominal P/E ratio of a high-quality company today. If you have a business that can grow its free cash flow at 15% or 20% for a decade or two, the ‘expensive’ 30x or 40x multiple you are paying today is actually a significantly lower multiple on the earnings power just a few years out. The market consistently underestimates the duration of growth for these ‘toll-bridge’ monopolies.
___
Today, $FICO trades at a more than reasonable PEG of ~1.41x.
My research also leads me to believe $FICO could have an $ASML moment within the next five years.
Here’s what I mean by that. Those of us who have been bullish on $ASML for the last several years knew, with a high degree of certainty, that $ASML would eventually see a surge in orders as demand naturally had to increase to support the advancement of AI and chip production at an unprecedented scale.
Yes, it wasn’t linear for $ASML, and for a few years it lagged many semiconductor players. Yet, what happened? In $ASML’s latest report, Q4 net bookings came in at €13.13B (+86% YoY) versus estimates of €6.85B — nearly double. And of course the stock surged +93% in just the past year.
At some point within the next five years, I anticipate that mortgage rates (among other things) will fall meaningfully enough to drive a surge — similar to $ASML net bookings spike — in refinance demand, alongside higher origination volumes from lower rates, all coupled with price increases.
That combination creates a “twin engine” of higher volumes + higher prices, which could translate into materially higher earnings and free cash flow than what current estimates imply, especially over the long term.
Here’s the catch: nobody knows when this will happen (similar to $ASML). However, those who are patient may be rewarded.
If you deeply understood $ASML importance and the inevitable, much greater demand for its machines, you were able to hold with confidence.
$FICO rhymes.
Two different “toll booths” in two different sectors — yet potentially very similar dynamics.
tweet
Sharing some thoughts on $FICO 👇🏽
Photo 1: $FICO now trades 32x NTM earnings estimates. Just four days ago, ahead of its Q1 2026 report, it traded 39x. $FICO is down ~5% in the past 5 days, so most of that multiple contraction (~18%) is due to aggressive growth in earnings.
Photo 2: Since January 2023, $FICO has a total return of 147.50% or a 34.3% CAGR despite the multiple expanding only 11.83% since then. In other words, nearly all of the return over that time period has been driven by strong earnings growth.
Photo 3: Since September 2019, $FICO has a total return of 355.80% or a 26.9% CAGR despite the multiple contracting -5.81% since then. Again, an incredible return in the face of slight multiple compression due to strong earnings growth.
Photo 4: Since September 2024, $FICO is down -24.20% while its multiple was halved, contracting -50.78%. While $FICO dropped during that period, again you see the impact strong earnings growth can have even in the face of severe multiple compression.
𝘉𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘰𝘨𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳, 𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦’𝘴 𝘢 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘢𝘱𝘩𝘳𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘴𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘢𝘴 𝘋𝘦𝘷 𝘒𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘴𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘢 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘤𝘳𝘰𝘴𝘴 𝘱𝘰𝘥𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘴:
💬 The biggest mistake investors make is focusing on the nominal P/E ratio of a high-quality company today. If you have a business that can grow its free cash flow at 15% or 20% for a decade or two, the ‘expensive’ 30x or 40x multiple you are paying today is actually a significantly lower multiple on the earnings power just a few years out. The market consistently underestimates the duration of growth for these ‘toll-bridge’ monopolies.
___
Today, $FICO trades at a more than reasonable PEG of ~1.41x.
My research also leads me to believe $FICO could have an $ASML moment within the next five years.
Here’s what I mean by that. Those of us who have been bullish on $ASML for the last several years knew, with a high degree of certainty, that $ASML would eventually see a surge in orders as demand naturally had to increase to support the advancement of AI and chip production at an unprecedented scale.
Yes, it wasn’t linear for $ASML, and for a few years it lagged many semiconductor players. Yet, what happened? In $ASML’s latest report, Q4 net bookings came in at €13.13B (+86% YoY) versus estimates of €6.85B — nearly double. And of course the stock surged +93% in just the past year.
At some point within the next five years, I anticipate that mortgage rates (among other things) will fall meaningfully enough to drive a surge — similar to $ASML net bookings spike — in refinance demand, alongside higher origination volumes from lower rates, all coupled with price increases.
That combination creates a “twin engine” of higher volumes + higher prices, which could translate into materially higher earnings and free cash flow than what current estimates imply, especially over the long term.
Here’s the catch: nobody knows when this will happen (similar to $ASML). However, those who are patient may be rewarded.
If you deeply understood $ASML importance and the inevitable, much greater demand for its machines, you were able to hold with confidence.
$FICO rhymes.
Two different “toll booths” in two different sectors — yet potentially very similar dynamics.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Illiquid
https://t.co/ZXvwFQhPuX
tweet
https://t.co/ZXvwFQhPuX
$ACMR to sell 4,801,648 shares of its ACMS shares (1.34% of their stake) so about $100m give or take.
What really excites me here is what this means when you dig into it.
Management informed J.P. Morgan that they would only sell 1-2% of their ACMS stake to fund non-China manufacturing capacity. (from JPM 26 Aug 2025 report)
This will likely be used for USA expansion. It is also important to note that their Oregon facility is 7 (SEVEN) minutes away from Intel's Ronler Acres (their primary R&D and logic fab site). Which ACMR management said is strategically built close to key customers... tweet
Illiquid
Think we have an idea levered to Lam Research ramp in Malaysia.
$lrcx: We've been talking for a while, I think, about CapEx growing as a result of expanding manufacturing capability. Tim specifically talked about it doubling over the last 4, 5 years. We're ramping globally. And you're right, that Malaysia location is our biggest location as we sit here today...
tweet
Think we have an idea levered to Lam Research ramp in Malaysia.
$lrcx: We've been talking for a while, I think, about CapEx growing as a result of expanding manufacturing capability. Tim specifically talked about it doubling over the last 4, 5 years. We're ramping globally. And you're right, that Malaysia location is our biggest location as we sit here today...
tweet