Offshore
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Startup Archive
Palmer Luckey: Build the future you want instead of arguing with luddites
“In general, it’s bad when a society turns luddite and starts to demonize new things . . . There are always people who have fought in the moment, and very few who fight to go back after the fact.”
For those who are worried that AI will ruin everything and eliminate jobs, Palmer asks:
“How many people said the same thing about automated manufacturing? The reality was that it took cars from a plaything for the rich into something that anybody could use.”
Palmer gives several other examples to emphasize this point. People were very against recorded music because they believed it “cheapens a performance” if you can replicate it for free. There were artists who believed photography would kill painting and art.
“We’re in one of those swings where everyone is questioning whether technology will make our future better, and I think it’s unfortunate because we’re on the precipice of so many things that have been scarce becoming unscarce. Things that have been unobtainable for many will become mass-market commodities.”
How do we convince people? Palmer replies:
“The thing you have to do is not talk about it really good. You have to do it really good until it becomes inarguable. Imagine if instead of making photography into art, they just argued about it on podcasts with painters? It would never work. You have to just do it and then eventually everyone will realize you were right all along.”
One of Palmer’s favorite examples is the Wright Brothers.
In 1903, the New York Times predicted manned flight would take between 1 and 10 million years to achieve, in an article titled “Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly.”
Only nine weeks later, the Wright Brothers achieved manned flight.
“Imagine if the Wright Brothers, instead of building their flying machine, had gone to argue with this guy,” Palmer jokes. “At some point you have to say they’re wrong about our future and we just need to build that future.”
Video source: @OffTopicJP (2025)
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Palmer Luckey: Build the future you want instead of arguing with luddites
“In general, it’s bad when a society turns luddite and starts to demonize new things . . . There are always people who have fought in the moment, and very few who fight to go back after the fact.”
For those who are worried that AI will ruin everything and eliminate jobs, Palmer asks:
“How many people said the same thing about automated manufacturing? The reality was that it took cars from a plaything for the rich into something that anybody could use.”
Palmer gives several other examples to emphasize this point. People were very against recorded music because they believed it “cheapens a performance” if you can replicate it for free. There were artists who believed photography would kill painting and art.
“We’re in one of those swings where everyone is questioning whether technology will make our future better, and I think it’s unfortunate because we’re on the precipice of so many things that have been scarce becoming unscarce. Things that have been unobtainable for many will become mass-market commodities.”
How do we convince people? Palmer replies:
“The thing you have to do is not talk about it really good. You have to do it really good until it becomes inarguable. Imagine if instead of making photography into art, they just argued about it on podcasts with painters? It would never work. You have to just do it and then eventually everyone will realize you were right all along.”
One of Palmer’s favorite examples is the Wright Brothers.
In 1903, the New York Times predicted manned flight would take between 1 and 10 million years to achieve, in an article titled “Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly.”
Only nine weeks later, the Wright Brothers achieved manned flight.
“Imagine if the Wright Brothers, instead of building their flying machine, had gone to argue with this guy,” Palmer jokes. “At some point you have to say they’re wrong about our future and we just need to build that future.”
Video source: @OffTopicJP (2025)
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: “ $MSFT has large margin of safety at $420💵, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 25x ” https://t.co/5rGIiHiHa1
A quality valuation analysis on $MSFT 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 27.29x
•3-Year Mean: 30.51x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.09%
•3-Year Mean: 2.46%
As you can see, $MSFT appears to be trading below fair value on a forward earnings basis
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~12% MORE in earnings per share & ~18% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSFT is a super business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $102.01B
•Long-Term Debt: $35.38B
$MSFT has an excellent balance sheet, an AAA S&P Credit Rating & 58x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2021: 31.1%
•2022: 34.0%
•2023: 30.9%
•2024: 29.7%
•2025: 28.0%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2021: 47.1%
•2022: 47.2%
•2023: 38.8%
•2024: 37.1%
•2025: 33.3%
$MSFT has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUE✅
•2021: $168.09B
•2026E: $326.83B
•CAGR: 14.22%
FREE CASH FLOW🆗*
•2021: $56.12B
•2026E: $75.05B
•CAGR: 5.98%
*This is largely due to heavy AI-related reinvestment — current 2028 FCF estimate $116.45B — worth noting operating cash flow increases underscore $MSFT efficient AI infrastructure scaling validating high ROI-potential
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2021: $7.97
•2026E: $16.26
•CAGR: 15.32%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2016 Shares Outstanding: 8.01B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 7.46B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7%, $MSFT increased its EPS by ~8% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 68.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 46.3%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 35.7%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2015: $1.24
•2025: $3.32
•CAGR: 10.34%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~12% MORE in EPS & ~18% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSFT has to grow earnings at a 13.65% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (13.65%) required growth rate:
2026E: $16.26 (19% YoY) *FY Jun
2027E: $18.75 (15% YoY)
2028E: $22.31 (19% YoY)
$MSFT has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $MSFT ends 2028 with $22.31 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $669💵 … ~17.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $647💵 … ~16.3% CAGR
28x P/E: $625💵 … ~14.7% CAGR
27x P/E: $602💵 … ~13.0% CAGR
26x P/E: $580💵 … ~11.3% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume ~28x multiple for $MSFT to have attractive return potential
At 26x - 27x earnings $MSFT has ok CAGR potential
If $MSFT multiple expands slightly, >15% CAGR
$MSFT is one of the highest quality companies in the world & is firing on all cylinders
Today at $454💵 $MSFT appears to be a strong consideration for investment with a decent margin of safety
$MSFT has large margin of safety at $420💵, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 25x
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞, 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫, 𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲.
𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢�[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: “ $MSFT has large margin of safety at $420💵, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 25x ” https://t.co/5rGIiHiHa1
A quality valuation analysis on $MSFT 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 27.29x
•3-Year Mean: 30.51x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.09%
•3-Year Mean: 2.46%
As you can see, $MSFT appears to be trading below fair value on a forward earnings basis
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~12% MORE in earnings per share & ~18% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSFT is a super business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $102.01B
•Long-Term Debt: $35.38B
$MSFT has an excellent balance sheet, an AAA S&P Credit Rating & 58x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2021: 31.1%
•2022: 34.0%
•2023: 30.9%
•2024: 29.7%
•2025: 28.0%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2021: 47.1%
•2022: 47.2%
•2023: 38.8%
•2024: 37.1%
•2025: 33.3%
$MSFT has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUE✅
•2021: $168.09B
•2026E: $326.83B
•CAGR: 14.22%
FREE CASH FLOW🆗*
•2021: $56.12B
•2026E: $75.05B
•CAGR: 5.98%
*This is largely due to heavy AI-related reinvestment — current 2028 FCF estimate $116.45B — worth noting operating cash flow increases underscore $MSFT efficient AI infrastructure scaling validating high ROI-potential
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2021: $7.97
•2026E: $16.26
•CAGR: 15.32%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2016 Shares Outstanding: 8.01B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 7.46B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7%, $MSFT increased its EPS by ~8% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 68.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 46.3%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 35.7%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2015: $1.24
•2025: $3.32
•CAGR: 10.34%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~12% MORE in EPS & ~18% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSFT has to grow earnings at a 13.65% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (13.65%) required growth rate:
2026E: $16.26 (19% YoY) *FY Jun
2027E: $18.75 (15% YoY)
2028E: $22.31 (19% YoY)
$MSFT has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $MSFT ends 2028 with $22.31 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
30x P/E: $669💵 … ~17.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $647💵 … ~16.3% CAGR
28x P/E: $625💵 … ~14.7% CAGR
27x P/E: $602💵 … ~13.0% CAGR
26x P/E: $580💵 … ~11.3% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume ~28x multiple for $MSFT to have attractive return potential
At 26x - 27x earnings $MSFT has ok CAGR potential
If $MSFT multiple expands slightly, >15% CAGR
$MSFT is one of the highest quality companies in the world & is firing on all cylinders
Today at $454💵 $MSFT appears to be a strong consideration for investment with a decent margin of safety
$MSFT has large margin of safety at $420💵, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 25x
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞, 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫, 𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲.
𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢�[...]
Offshore
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® RT @DimitryNakhla: “ $MSFT has large margin of safety at $420💵, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 25x ” https://t.co/5rGIiHiHa1 A quality valuation analysis on $MSFT 🧘🏽♂️ •NTM P/E…
� 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet
Offshore
Video
God of Prompt
RT @prompt_copilot: Grammarly fixes your writing.
💫 https://t.co/7vzwuTo8vA fixes your prompts.
> Prompt enhancement
> Autocomplete
> Context profiles
Chrome extension for ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity.
Start your free trial 👉 https://t.co/TKMMCzVWj1 https://t.co/gZhh1ozINU
tweet
RT @prompt_copilot: Grammarly fixes your writing.
💫 https://t.co/7vzwuTo8vA fixes your prompts.
> Prompt enhancement
> Autocomplete
> Context profiles
Chrome extension for ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity.
Start your free trial 👉 https://t.co/TKMMCzVWj1 https://t.co/gZhh1ozINU
tweet
Offshore
Video
Moon Dev
I let AI agents trade Polymarket for 24 hours
The results are Insane
Prolly a good idea to bm this 1 https://t.co/v3v7mBk8a8
tweet
I let AI agents trade Polymarket for 24 hours
The results are Insane
Prolly a good idea to bm this 1 https://t.co/v3v7mBk8a8
tweet