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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: AOC on $CVS

"Health insurance gets a cut, the pharmacy benefit manager gets a cut, the drug manufacturer gets a cut, and the patient gets screwed" https://t.co/coHY9LwKre
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God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: the window is closing

there's a 12-18 month gap happening right now that most people won't realize existed until it's gone.

ai is unregulated.

the tools are superhuman.

the barriers are zero.

and everyone's still asking "what prompt should i use" instead of building empires.

this is the last unpoliced frontier. no licenses. no gatekeepers. no "you need 10 years experience" bullshit.

just you, a laptop, and models smart enough to 10x anything you throw at them.

claude thinks in chains of reasoning you'd pay a consultant $500/hr for.

gemini deep research pulls from the entire internet in seconds.

notebooklm turns any document into an expert you can interrogate.

these aren't tools. they're superpowers handed out for free.

and we're complaining about rate limits.

here's what nobody's telling you:

the moment regulation kicks in... the moment ai gets "safety frameworks" and "compliance requirements"... the gap between people who learned to think with ai and people who just used ai closes forever.

right now you can build things that won't be possible to build the same way in 2 years.

you can access reasoning that will be paywalled or restricted.

you can move faster than companies with 50 lawyers reviewing every ai output.

the window isn't closing slowly. it's closing quietly.

so what do you actually do with the window?

stop prompting like you're searching google.

start thinking like a strategist.

add game theory to your prompts. ask claude to model the incentives of every player in your market. ask it what move your competitor will make after you make yours. ask it where the equilibrium settles.

suddenly you're not reacting. you're predicting.

add first principles. break every problem down to its atoms before building solutions. ask "what would this look like if we started from zero" instead of "how do we improve what exists."

most people copy. you'll invent.

add systems thinking. every input creates outputs that become inputs for something else. ask the model to map second and third order effects. ask what happens downstream when you change something upstream.

you stop solving symptoms. you start solving root causes.

the formula

game theory = anticipate moves before they happen

first principles = build solutions nobody's seen before

systems thinking = understand consequences most people miss

stack all three in your prompts and you're not using ai anymore.

you're thinking with it.

the gratitude part

i genuinely feel lucky to be alive right now.

not because ai is cool. because the opportunity is absurd.

a kid with no connections and a claude subscription can outthink an entire research team from 2015.

that's not normal. that's not permanent.

and too many people are wasting it asking chatgpt to write their emails.

the tools exist.

the window is open.

but windows close.
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Illiquid
Just hit 52 week high. One of our readers owns alot of this and Metasurface.

I see nobody else talking about it on fintwit but AT&S $ATS is quietly up a staggering 210% this year https://t.co/WrI5SjmF50
- Fenix Vanlangerode
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: AOC vs. $UNH CEO

"We should consider breaking up this industry" https://t.co/SVD3Qml1ep
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The Few Bets That Matter
FinX Darlings & Why I Am not Buying Them.

Most investors on this platform buy the same stocks. Today' I'll go over six of them and detail why I am not.

To me, those six assets don't make the cuts and aren't worth holding today. That might change tomorrow.

1. Netflix $NFLX.

$NFLX went through a massive pivot with its ~$70B bid for $WBD. Management is guiding for a strong FY26 (12% growth, 31.5% margins), but the narrative has shifted from stable cash generation to risk taking.

The market rewards safe cash generation. Adding ~$50B in debt and spending all cash and FCF available to buy legacy IP destroys the "premium" multiple investors were willing to pay for that safe cash generation.

Is it cheap? Probably. But I’m not buying until the market digests the leverage and $NFLX proves itself capable of leveraging the IPs.

Until then, $NFLX doesn't deserve its old multiples.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
ServiceNow trades 25x NTM FCF Est 💵

2026E: $5.39B (+20% YoY)

2027E: $6.52B (+20% YoY)
2028E: $7.69B (+18% YoY)

$NOW https://t.co/FAKpzSQpXX
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Illiquid
A lot of everything chip related happens in Malaysia.

Many people are not aware that $INTC does much of their #AdvancedPackaging in Malaysia.
The ChipBook tracks exports of HBM from Korea to Malaysia to keep tabs on the latest Intel developments.
https://t.co/oD6GEdN2av https://t.co/M9XoUfYsdT
- Chips & Wafers
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The Few Bets That Matter
$TMDX dropped yesterday after news that a new competitor got FDA approval for perfusion after cold storage.

Bridge to Life’s VitaSmart was cleared for Hypothermic Oxygenated Machine Perfusion, allowing their machine to perfuse organs post cold storage, potentially allowing DCD liver transplants.

The market’s fear: a cheaper cold storage + perfusion setup could largely reduce costs and bring real competition.

But the market is ignoring a lot...

🔹OCS has consistently shown better outcomes. The device cost is negligible compared to the total cost of a failing organ (dialysis, long-term care, retransplant risk, etc)...
🔹The control of the organ's viability, automated actions and better planifications in term of surgery planning as a cold storage requires urgent intervention - hence added costs.
🔹It also ignores logistics. OCS simplifies transport, improves workflows, delivers end-to-end cost savings versus stitching together 4–5 vendors, each taking their own margin.
🔹And habits. Once a hospital owns and works with an OCS, consumables aren’t the real cost driver. Combined with better outcomes and simpler workflows, switching just doesn’t make much sense.

Yes, new cold storage solutions add competition. But they’re not a threat to $TMDX long-term potential, they are an old technology which will be used for a few more years and then be forgotten to innovation.

At best, they’re a short-term, cost-efficient alternative.
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AkhenOsiris
Anthropic

Wired:

Last year, the business of AI coding agents took off. In November, Anthropic announced that Claude Code had reached $1 billion in annualized recurring revenue, less than a year after its debut.

By the end of 2025, Claude Code’s ARR had grown by at least another $100 million, according to a person familiar with the company’s financials. At the time the product accounted for roughly 12 percent of Anthropic’s total ARR, which stood around $9 billion. While still smaller than Anthropic’s enterprise business—which supplies AI systems to entire corporations—coding is one of the company’s fastest-growing segments.

Anthropic has also told investors it aims to be cash-flow positive by 2028 and that Claude Code could play an important role in its revenue growth. The company declined to comment on its finances.
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AkhenOsiris
Anthropic:

While Anthropic feels dominant in AI coding, the buzz around Claude Opus 4.5 appears to be lifting several companies. Cursor, which lets users code using models from Anthropic and other AI labs, also said its coding tool reached $1 billion in ARR in November. In December, the company posted particularly strong month-over-month revenue growth, according to a person close to the company.

Anthropic

Wired:

Last year, the business of AI coding agents took off. In November, Anthropic announced that Claude Code had reached $1 billion in annualized recurring revenue, less than a year after its debut.

By the end of 2025, Claude Code’s ARR had grown by at least another $100 million, according to a person familiar with the company’s financials. At the time the product accounted for roughly 12 percent of Anthropic’s total ARR, which stood around $9 billion. While still smaller than Anthropic’s enterprise business—which supplies AI systems to entire corporations—coding is one of the company’s fastest-growing segments.

Anthropic has also told investors it aims to be cash-flow positive by 2028 and that Claude Code could play an important role in its revenue growth. The company declined to comment on its finances.
- AkhenOsiris
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AkhenOsiris
In the public stack, market seems confused how to price in Anthropic news...fairly straightforward how to price in OAI and Gemini...part of it is Anthropic on all clouds and no arrangement similar to OAI/MSFT...just saying

Anthropic:

While Anthropic feels dominant in AI coding, the buzz around Claude Opus 4.5 appears to be lifting several companies. Cursor, which lets users code using models from Anthropic and other AI labs, also said its coding tool reached $1 billion in ARR in November. In December, the company posted particularly strong month-over-month revenue growth, according to a person close to the company.
- AkhenOsiris
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