Offshore

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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $NOW 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 52.28x
•3-Year Mean: 34.73x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.61%
•10-Year Mean: 2.49%

As you can see, $NOW appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~50% MORE in earnings per share & ~45% MORE in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $NOW is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $5.41B
•Long-Term Debt: $1.49B

$NOW has a strong balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating & 210x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL❌➡️✅
•2021: 4.3%
•2022: 5.2%
•2023: 8.1%
•2024: 11.8%
•LTM: 13.3%

RETURN ON EQUITY❌➡️✅
•2021: 7.0%
•2022: 7.4%
•2023: 27.3%
•2024: 16.5%
•LTM: 16.8%

$NOW return metrics are improving & trending in the right direction — a sign the business is becoming more efficient

REVENUE✅
•2020: $4.52B
•2025E: $13.24B
•CAGR: 23.97%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2020: $1.37B
•2025E: 26.79%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2020: $0.93
•2025E: $3.48
•CAGR: 30.20%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 986.12M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.05B

MARGINS🆗 / ✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 78.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 14.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 13.7%

SGA is $NOW largest expense eating ~41% of LTM revenue, something to keep an eye on

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~50% MORE in EPS & ~45% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $NOW has to grow earnings at a 17.37% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less (16.84%) than the (17.37%) required growth rate:

2025E: $3.48 (25% YoY) *FY Dec

2026E: $4.08 (17% YoY)
2027E: $4.89 (20% YoY)
2028E: $5.57 (14% YoY)

$NOW has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $NOW ends 2028 with $5.57 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

34x P/E: $189💵 … ~12.2% CAGR

33x P/E: $184💵 … ~11.1% CAGR

32x P/E: $178💵 … ~9.9% CAGR

31x P/E: $173💵 … ~8.8% CAGR

30x P/E: $167💵 … ~7.6% CAGR

29x P/E: $161💵 … ~6.4% CAGR

As you can see, we’d have to assume a >34x multiple for $NOW to have attractive return potential

At 32x earnings $NOW has ok CAGR potential

Given its -40% drawdown, $NOW appears to be fairly valued today at $135💵

Yes, $NOW is the workflow operating system for large enterprises, automating & governing critical work across IT, HR, security, & customer service

Once embedded, it becomes deeply integrated into how the organization runs, creating high switching costs & powerful long-term expansion

With AI layered onto these workflows, $NOW can increasingly automate & execute work end-to-end

Yet, today’s price offers little margin of safety

I consider $NOW a strong consideration with a decent margin of safety at $110💵, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 28x
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𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨�[...]

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