Offshore
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App Economy Insights
Three signals in Big Tech this week:
โข๏ธ Meta is going nuclear $META
๐ฑ Apple picks Gemini for Siri $AAPL
โ๏ธ TSMC bets $56B to power it all $TSM
Full story with visuals ๐
https://t.co/2aKzq7IkxZ
tweet
Three signals in Big Tech this week:
โข๏ธ Meta is going nuclear $META
๐ฑ Apple picks Gemini for Siri $AAPL
โ๏ธ TSMC bets $56B to power it all $TSM
Full story with visuals ๐
https://t.co/2aKzq7IkxZ
tweet
Offshore
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God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: RICHARD FEYNMANโS WHOLE LEARNING PHILOSOPHYโฆ PACKED INTO ONE PROMPT
I spent days engineering a meta-prompt that teaches you any topic using Feynmanโs exact approach:
simple analogies, ruthless clarity, iterative refinement, and guided self-explanation.
It feels like having a Nobel-level tutor inside ChatGPT and Claude๐
tweet
RT @godofprompt: RICHARD FEYNMANโS WHOLE LEARNING PHILOSOPHYโฆ PACKED INTO ONE PROMPT
I spent days engineering a meta-prompt that teaches you any topic using Feynmanโs exact approach:
simple analogies, ruthless clarity, iterative refinement, and guided self-explanation.
It feels like having a Nobel-level tutor inside ChatGPT and Claude๐
tweet
Offshore
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Moon Dev
MASSIVE ETH SHORT IDENTIFIED
$80,000,000 short just entered the market
get him boys https://t.co/tGcdM6Elcs
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MASSIVE ETH SHORT IDENTIFIED
$80,000,000 short just entered the market
get him boys https://t.co/tGcdM6Elcs
tweet
Offshore
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Clark Square Capital
RT @ClarkSquareCap: Every day in liquidation nation https://t.co/Je7ZPOtNMq
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RT @ClarkSquareCap: Every day in liquidation nation https://t.co/Je7ZPOtNMq
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
A new account on Polymarket has bet $14K on Rick Rieder being the next fed chair.
They will win $180K if correct. https://t.co/wh34ZLs5wv
tweet
A new account on Polymarket has bet $14K on Rick Rieder being the next fed chair.
They will win $180K if correct. https://t.co/wh34ZLs5wv
tweet
Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Vinod Khosla: โAn investor is an employee you canโt fireโ
Sam Altman asks Vinod how founders who want to build significant companies that will be around for decades should think about their investors.
Vinod believes that money is the smaller part of what you get from an investor:
โAdvice and the right approach is the much more important part.โ
He warns that investors who are happy with 3x their money may want to sell before you do. People who care about your vision wonโt, and theyโll be much more tolerant when things inevitably go wrong.
To figure out if an investor will care about your vision, you have to talk to other foundersโespecially founders with a large vision who had hiccups along the way.
โWhen things go wrong along an ambitious path is when you can actually judge an investor. I think an investor is an employee you canโt fire, and thatโs how you should think about it.โ
He continues:
โMost investors are negative value add to a company thatโs trying to be ambitious if theyโre just trying to get to liquidity as soon as possible.โ
When a founder comes to Vinod with an ambitious vision, he tries to help them think through the steps to get there and how to thoughtfully discover the risks on the path to that vision.
Sam Altman adds:
โThe only recipe Iโve ever seen work for making really impactful companies is both a giant vision and a good step one, two, and three. You have to have both, and neither without the other will work.โ
Video source: @ycombinator (2019)
tweet
Vinod Khosla: โAn investor is an employee you canโt fireโ
Sam Altman asks Vinod how founders who want to build significant companies that will be around for decades should think about their investors.
Vinod believes that money is the smaller part of what you get from an investor:
โAdvice and the right approach is the much more important part.โ
He warns that investors who are happy with 3x their money may want to sell before you do. People who care about your vision wonโt, and theyโll be much more tolerant when things inevitably go wrong.
To figure out if an investor will care about your vision, you have to talk to other foundersโespecially founders with a large vision who had hiccups along the way.
โWhen things go wrong along an ambitious path is when you can actually judge an investor. I think an investor is an employee you canโt fire, and thatโs how you should think about it.โ
He continues:
โMost investors are negative value add to a company thatโs trying to be ambitious if theyโre just trying to get to liquidity as soon as possible.โ
When a founder comes to Vinod with an ambitious vision, he tries to help them think through the steps to get there and how to thoughtfully discover the risks on the path to that vision.
Sam Altman adds:
โThe only recipe Iโve ever seen work for making really impactful companies is both a giant vision and a good step one, two, and three. You have to have both, and neither without the other will work.โ
Video source: @ycombinator (2019)
tweet
Offshore
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Clark Square Capital
RT @TheAppInvestor: $GRVY - Ragnarok New World, day 2 - still #1 in TW cf picture. Taiwan is a top 5 worldwide market for mobile revenue, and one where Ragnarok IP shines since 2022.
Game is cross-platform ,there's likely revenue on PC (was the case for Origin too). https://t.co/4Fpx9Xvu3h
tweet
RT @TheAppInvestor: $GRVY - Ragnarok New World, day 2 - still #1 in TW cf picture. Taiwan is a top 5 worldwide market for mobile revenue, and one where Ragnarok IP shines since 2022.
Game is cross-platform ,there's likely revenue on PC (was the case for Origin too). https://t.co/4Fpx9Xvu3h
tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $NOW ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 52.28x
โข3-Year Mean: 34.73x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.61%
โข10-Year Mean: 2.49%
As you can see, $NOW appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~50% MORE in earnings per share & ~45% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $NOW is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $5.41B
โขLong-Term Debt: $1.49B
$NOW has a strong balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating & 210x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITALโโก๏ธโ
โข2021: 4.3%
โข2022: 5.2%
โข2023: 8.1%
โข2024: 11.8%
โขLTM: 13.3%
RETURN ON EQUITYโโก๏ธโ
โข2021: 7.0%
โข2022: 7.4%
โข2023: 27.3%
โข2024: 16.5%
โขLTM: 16.8%
$NOW return metrics are improving & trending in the right direction โ a sign the business is becoming more efficient
REVENUEโ
โข2020: $4.52B
โข2025E: $13.24B
โขCAGR: 23.97%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2020: $1.37B
โข2025E: 26.79%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2020: $0.93
โข2025E: $3.48
โขCAGR: 30.20%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 986.12M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 1.05B
MARGINS๐ / โ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 78.1%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 14.4%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 13.7%
SGA is $NOW largest expense eating ~41% of LTM revenue, something to keep an eye on
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~50% MORE in EPS & ~45% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $NOW has to grow earnings at a 17.37% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less (16.84%) than the (17.37%) required growth rate:
2025E: $3.48 (25% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $4.08 (17% YoY)
2027E: $4.89 (20% YoY)
2028E: $5.57 (14% YoY)
$NOW has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $NOW ends 2028 with $5.57 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
34x P/E: $189๐ต โฆ ~12.2% CAGR
33x P/E: $184๐ต โฆ ~11.1% CAGR
32x P/E: $178๐ต โฆ ~9.9% CAGR
31x P/E: $173๐ต โฆ ~8.8% CAGR
30x P/E: $167๐ต โฆ ~7.6% CAGR
29x P/E: $161๐ต โฆ ~6.4% CAGR
As you can see, weโd have to assume a >34x multiple for $NOW to have attractive return potential
At 32x earnings $NOW has ok CAGR potential
Given its -40% drawdown, $NOW appears to be fairly valued today at $135๐ต
Yes, $NOW is the workflow operating system for large enterprises, automating & governing critical work across IT, HR, security, & customer service
Once embedded, it becomes deeply integrated into how the organization runs, creating high switching costs & powerful long-term expansion
With AI layered onto these workflows, $NOW can increasingly automate & execute work end-to-end
Yet, todayโs price offers little margin of safety
I consider $NOW a strong consideration with a decent margin of safety at $110๐ต, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 28x
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ
๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐, ๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐๐๐ซ, ๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ.
๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐. ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ข๐ง๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐๐.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๏ฟฝ[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $NOW ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 52.28x
โข3-Year Mean: 34.73x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.61%
โข10-Year Mean: 2.49%
As you can see, $NOW appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~50% MORE in earnings per share & ~45% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $NOW is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $5.41B
โขLong-Term Debt: $1.49B
$NOW has a strong balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating & 210x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITALโโก๏ธโ
โข2021: 4.3%
โข2022: 5.2%
โข2023: 8.1%
โข2024: 11.8%
โขLTM: 13.3%
RETURN ON EQUITYโโก๏ธโ
โข2021: 7.0%
โข2022: 7.4%
โข2023: 27.3%
โข2024: 16.5%
โขLTM: 16.8%
$NOW return metrics are improving & trending in the right direction โ a sign the business is becoming more efficient
REVENUEโ
โข2020: $4.52B
โข2025E: $13.24B
โขCAGR: 23.97%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2020: $1.37B
โข2025E: 26.79%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2020: $0.93
โข2025E: $3.48
โขCAGR: 30.20%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 986.12M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 1.05B
MARGINS๐ / โ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 78.1%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 14.4%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 13.7%
SGA is $NOW largest expense eating ~41% of LTM revenue, something to keep an eye on
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~50% MORE in EPS & ~45% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $NOW has to grow earnings at a 17.37% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less (16.84%) than the (17.37%) required growth rate:
2025E: $3.48 (25% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $4.08 (17% YoY)
2027E: $4.89 (20% YoY)
2028E: $5.57 (14% YoY)
$NOW has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $NOW ends 2028 with $5.57 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
34x P/E: $189๐ต โฆ ~12.2% CAGR
33x P/E: $184๐ต โฆ ~11.1% CAGR
32x P/E: $178๐ต โฆ ~9.9% CAGR
31x P/E: $173๐ต โฆ ~8.8% CAGR
30x P/E: $167๐ต โฆ ~7.6% CAGR
29x P/E: $161๐ต โฆ ~6.4% CAGR
As you can see, weโd have to assume a >34x multiple for $NOW to have attractive return potential
At 32x earnings $NOW has ok CAGR potential
Given its -40% drawdown, $NOW appears to be fairly valued today at $135๐ต
Yes, $NOW is the workflow operating system for large enterprises, automating & governing critical work across IT, HR, security, & customer service
Once embedded, it becomes deeply integrated into how the organization runs, creating high switching costs & powerful long-term expansion
With AI layered onto these workflows, $NOW can increasingly automate & execute work end-to-end
Yet, todayโs price offers little margin of safety
I consider $NOW a strong consideration with a decent margin of safety at $110๐ต, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 28x
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ
๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐, ๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐๐๐ซ, ๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ.
๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐. ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ข๐ง๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐๐.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๏ฟฝ[...]