Offshore
Photo
Illiquid
$asml and $besi supplier $vacn +12.5%. Preannounced results.
https://t.co/S0MIagSrlo
tweet
$asml and $besi supplier $vacn +12.5%. Preannounced results.
https://t.co/S0MIagSrlo
🌐 ✅ 📈 🚀 👇🏼 Massive semi equip rally now with $ASML +7%, $ASMI.AS +10% and $BESI +8% after exceptionally strong $TSM results/guidance with CapEx projections $52-56 billion for 2026 while consensus was aiming for 'only' $46 billion https://t.co/KGM8wl2dH4 tweet
Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
Hard to find a better sign of market tightness than when a software company buys raw materials directly from the producer under a LT contract.
#copper $amzn #AI https://t.co/d71qnEkJp9
tweet
Hard to find a better sign of market tightness than when a software company buys raw materials directly from the producer under a LT contract.
#copper $amzn #AI https://t.co/d71qnEkJp9
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Illiquid
Everyone thank Uncle Wei for the gains and for saying AI is “endless” https://t.co/yQcnvRwOHq
tweet
Everyone thank Uncle Wei for the gains and for saying AI is “endless” https://t.co/yQcnvRwOHq
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Moon Dev
[$4,500,000 full tilt trade]
going to be going over what happened yesterday
how i ended up full porting short (against the trend)
and what my actions mean for things moving forward
already took my mental health break
back at it at 8 est, get a ticket: https://t.co/YGcRzsCJwf
tweet
[$4,500,000 full tilt trade]
going to be going over what happened yesterday
how i ended up full porting short (against the trend)
and what my actions mean for things moving forward
already took my mental health break
back at it at 8 est, get a ticket: https://t.co/YGcRzsCJwf
[week #3 results]
idk how im still alive trading 40x after 3 full weeks
if i was doing this by hand, i’d be at 0 by now
probably just lucky
i’ll probably blow up but the weeks over
+49% ($4,970 pnl | $10k max size)
thanks quant app https://t.co/LMmiSeSxT8 tweet
Offshore
Photo
Moon Dev
$4,500,000 full tilt
going to be going over what happened yesterday
how i ended up full porting short (against the trend)
and what my actions mean for things moving forward
already took my mental health break
back at it at 8 est, get a ticket: https://t.co/Aw7dcEw2RV
moon dev
tweet
$4,500,000 full tilt
going to be going over what happened yesterday
how i ended up full porting short (against the trend)
and what my actions mean for things moving forward
already took my mental health break
back at it at 8 est, get a ticket: https://t.co/Aw7dcEw2RV
moon dev
tweet
Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Reed Hastings on the biggest mistake he made at the company he built before Netflix
Before Netflix, Reed Hastings founded Pure Software in 1991. Six years later he sold the company for $750 million. While most people would consider this a home run, Reed saw it as a missed opportunity and a company that never reached its potential. Reed reflects:
“When I analyzed what happened, one of the major things was a decline in talent density. With declining talent density, you need a bunch of rules to protect against the mistakes, and that only further drives out the high-caliber people. It was through that experience that I realized: I tried to run software like a manufacturing plant — reducing error and putting in process — but that doesn’t get high productivity or high talent. Instead, we should manage software much more artisanally with inspiration rather than management.”
He continues:
“Typically we humans value being nice and we value loyalty. Yet, in the workplace, that’s at tension because being nice is in contrast with our intention of being honest. I generally like people who are nice; yet, in the work place, I want you to be honest with each other so that we’re more productive. We have to find a way to give each other permission to not be conventionally nice and instead be focused on the team’s success, which is being very direct.”
The same is true of loyalty, Reed argues:
“Loyalty is something in your family. You would never fire your brother if you were tight on money — you would share, and that’s what we admire. Yet in a company, we lay people off. So this whole idea that a company is a family is unintentional and derives from all the structures of society being family. All companies used to be family companies. Then corporations have grown more recently. All countries used to be family countries and kingdoms. Basically family was the deep organizing unit. So it’s natural that that spills into how we think about an organization.”
Reed contrasts this with professional sports teams:
“[The professional sports team] is an admired model. It’s really focused on achievement. And everyone understands that you change players as you need to try to win the championship.”
He concludes:
“It’s changing the language that you use. Don’t use words like ‘We’re a family’ . . . Instead it’s ‘We’re a professional sports team and we all have to fight every year to keep our position.’ If we can upgrade we must to win the championship, which is producing a great company.”
Video source: @InvestLikeBest (2026)
tweet
Reed Hastings on the biggest mistake he made at the company he built before Netflix
Before Netflix, Reed Hastings founded Pure Software in 1991. Six years later he sold the company for $750 million. While most people would consider this a home run, Reed saw it as a missed opportunity and a company that never reached its potential. Reed reflects:
“When I analyzed what happened, one of the major things was a decline in talent density. With declining talent density, you need a bunch of rules to protect against the mistakes, and that only further drives out the high-caliber people. It was through that experience that I realized: I tried to run software like a manufacturing plant — reducing error and putting in process — but that doesn’t get high productivity or high talent. Instead, we should manage software much more artisanally with inspiration rather than management.”
He continues:
“Typically we humans value being nice and we value loyalty. Yet, in the workplace, that’s at tension because being nice is in contrast with our intention of being honest. I generally like people who are nice; yet, in the work place, I want you to be honest with each other so that we’re more productive. We have to find a way to give each other permission to not be conventionally nice and instead be focused on the team’s success, which is being very direct.”
The same is true of loyalty, Reed argues:
“Loyalty is something in your family. You would never fire your brother if you were tight on money — you would share, and that’s what we admire. Yet in a company, we lay people off. So this whole idea that a company is a family is unintentional and derives from all the structures of society being family. All companies used to be family companies. Then corporations have grown more recently. All countries used to be family countries and kingdoms. Basically family was the deep organizing unit. So it’s natural that that spills into how we think about an organization.”
Reed contrasts this with professional sports teams:
“[The professional sports team] is an admired model. It’s really focused on achievement. And everyone understands that you change players as you need to try to win the championship.”
He concludes:
“It’s changing the language that you use. Don’t use words like ‘We’re a family’ . . . Instead it’s ‘We’re a professional sports team and we all have to fight every year to keep our position.’ If we can upgrade we must to win the championship, which is producing a great company.”
Video source: @InvestLikeBest (2026)
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Illiquid
A little lost in the TSM celebrations today is the news that State Grid Corp, just one of China's two dominant grid operators, has raised capex plans to US$574B over the next five years.
$3393 $2722
https://t.co/mYwCjkLrhP
tweet
A little lost in the TSM celebrations today is the news that State Grid Corp, just one of China's two dominant grid operators, has raised capex plans to US$574B over the next five years.
$3393 $2722
https://t.co/mYwCjkLrhP
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @wallstengine: $TSM | TSMC Q4’25 Detailed Earnings Highlights:
🔹 Revenue: $33.73B (Est. $33.3B) 🟢; +25.5% YoY; +1.9% QoQ
🔹 Gross Margin: 62.3% (Est. 60.5%) 🟢
🔹 Oper Margin: 54.0% (Prior: 49%–51%) 🟢
🔹 Net Profit: $16.30B (Est. $15.2B) 🟢
FY26 CapEx mix:
🔹 CapEx: $52–$56B (vs $40.9B in FY25, Est. $48B) 🟢
🔹 70%–80% advanced node;
🔹 ~10% specialty;
🔹 10%–20% advanced packaging /testing /mask/others
Q1’26 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: $34.6–$35.8B (Est $33.2B) 🟢; +4% QoQ; +38% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 63%–65% (Est 59.6%) 🟢
🔹 Operating Margin: 54%–56% (Est 50.0%) 🟢
🔹 Assumed FX (for guide): $1 = 31.6
🔹 Tax rate: 16% in 2025; expects 17%–18% in 2026
Technology Mix (Wafer Revenue) (Q4’25)
🔹 N3: 28% of wafer revenue
🔹 N5: 35% of wafer revenue
🔹 N7: 14% of wafer revenue
🔹 ≤7nm total: 77% of wafer revenue
🔹 Others (≥10nm): 23% of wafer revenue (implied residual)
Revenue by Platform (Q4’25)
🔹 HPC (incl. AI): 55% of total; +4% QoQ
🔹 Smartphone: 32% of total; +11% QoQ
🔹 IoT: 5% of total; +3% QoQ
🔹 Automotive: 5% of total; -1% QoQ
🔹 DCE: 1% of total; -22% QoQ
🔹 Others: 2% of total (implied residual); QoQ not disclosed
FY25 Recap
🔹 Rev: $122.42B 🟢; +35.9% YoY (Est. +34.5% YoY)
🔹 Gross Margin: 59.9% (vs 56.1% in FY24)
🔹 Operating Margin: 50.8% (vs 45.7% in FY24)
🔹 Net Profit: $55.13B (vs $36.49B in FY24)
🔹 Wafer shipments: 15.02M (vs 12.91M in FY24)
🔹 CapEx (FY25): $40.9B
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 ROE: 38.8%
🔹 OpEx as % of revenue: 8.4% (vs 8.9% in Q3’25)
🔹 Wafer shipments: 3.96M (12" eq.)
🔹 Wafer ASP (noted): $7,324 (+7%)
🔹 Overseas fab GM dilution: 2%–3% (early), 3%–4% (later stages)
🔹 N2 dilution: 2%–3% for FY26
🔹 N3 margin: expected to “cross over” to corporate average sometime in 2026
2026 Outlook + Long-Term Targets
🔸 FY26 revenue growth: “close to 30%” (driven by AI-related demand)
🔸 Long-term gross margin guide raised: 56% (from 53%)
🔸 AI accelerator rev growth: mid-to-high 50s% CAGR (2024–2029), raised from prior mid-40s%
🔸 Long-term total revenue growth: ~25% CAGR (2024–2029)
🔸 “Foundry 2.0” industry: 14% growth in 2026 (company view)
Node Roadmap (Mgmt)
🔹 N2 “entered… high volume manufacturing” in Q4’25 at Hsinchu + Kaohsiung with “good yield”
🔹 N2P: volume production scheduled 2H’26; “performance and power” benefits
🔹 A16: on track for volume production 2H’26; includes backside power delivery (“Super Power Rail”)
Capacity + Expansion (Mgmt)
🔹 Supply-demand: “capacity is very tight”… looking at 2028 or 2029 to “narrow the gap”
🔹 Arizona: yield/defect density “almost equal to Taiwan”… “we are going to expand many fabs there”
🔹 Timing (company): AZ Fab2 now expected to enter high volume manufacturing in 2H’27; Fab3 construction started; permits underway for Fab4 + an advanced packaging fab
Advanced Packaging + Mature Nodes
🔹 Advanced packaging: ~8% of 2025 revenue; expected to be “slightly over 10%” over time. 2026 capex around 10-20% will be for advanced packaging.
🔹 8-inch: output reduced, but “continue to support” customers as long as demand is there
Commentary:
🔸 “AI is real, not only real, it’s starting to grow into our daily life.”
🔸 “I’m also very nervous about it… we have to invest about $52 billion-$56 billion for the CapEx… If we didn’t do it carefully… that would be a big disaster for TSMC.”
🔸 “I spend a lot of time… talking to my customer and then customers’ customer… I want to make sure… demand are real… they show me the evidence…”
🔸 “Capacity is very tight… we work very hard to narrow the gap…”
🔸 “We are looking at 2028 or 2029… we hope the supply gap will be narrowed.”
🔸 “I worry about the electricity in Taiwan first.”
🔸 CFO: “Our pricing will remain strategic, not opportunistic.”
🔸 Build-out reality: “It takes two to three years to build a new fab”… meaningfully helps “2028 or 2029.”
🔸 Biggest constraint: “the bottleneck is… wafer supply.” tweet
RT @wallstengine: $TSM | TSMC Q4’25 Detailed Earnings Highlights:
🔹 Revenue: $33.73B (Est. $33.3B) 🟢; +25.5% YoY; +1.9% QoQ
🔹 Gross Margin: 62.3% (Est. 60.5%) 🟢
🔹 Oper Margin: 54.0% (Prior: 49%–51%) 🟢
🔹 Net Profit: $16.30B (Est. $15.2B) 🟢
FY26 CapEx mix:
🔹 CapEx: $52–$56B (vs $40.9B in FY25, Est. $48B) 🟢
🔹 70%–80% advanced node;
🔹 ~10% specialty;
🔹 10%–20% advanced packaging /testing /mask/others
Q1’26 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: $34.6–$35.8B (Est $33.2B) 🟢; +4% QoQ; +38% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 63%–65% (Est 59.6%) 🟢
🔹 Operating Margin: 54%–56% (Est 50.0%) 🟢
🔹 Assumed FX (for guide): $1 = 31.6
🔹 Tax rate: 16% in 2025; expects 17%–18% in 2026
Technology Mix (Wafer Revenue) (Q4’25)
🔹 N3: 28% of wafer revenue
🔹 N5: 35% of wafer revenue
🔹 N7: 14% of wafer revenue
🔹 ≤7nm total: 77% of wafer revenue
🔹 Others (≥10nm): 23% of wafer revenue (implied residual)
Revenue by Platform (Q4’25)
🔹 HPC (incl. AI): 55% of total; +4% QoQ
🔹 Smartphone: 32% of total; +11% QoQ
🔹 IoT: 5% of total; +3% QoQ
🔹 Automotive: 5% of total; -1% QoQ
🔹 DCE: 1% of total; -22% QoQ
🔹 Others: 2% of total (implied residual); QoQ not disclosed
FY25 Recap
🔹 Rev: $122.42B 🟢; +35.9% YoY (Est. +34.5% YoY)
🔹 Gross Margin: 59.9% (vs 56.1% in FY24)
🔹 Operating Margin: 50.8% (vs 45.7% in FY24)
🔹 Net Profit: $55.13B (vs $36.49B in FY24)
🔹 Wafer shipments: 15.02M (vs 12.91M in FY24)
🔹 CapEx (FY25): $40.9B
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 ROE: 38.8%
🔹 OpEx as % of revenue: 8.4% (vs 8.9% in Q3’25)
🔹 Wafer shipments: 3.96M (12" eq.)
🔹 Wafer ASP (noted): $7,324 (+7%)
🔹 Overseas fab GM dilution: 2%–3% (early), 3%–4% (later stages)
🔹 N2 dilution: 2%–3% for FY26
🔹 N3 margin: expected to “cross over” to corporate average sometime in 2026
2026 Outlook + Long-Term Targets
🔸 FY26 revenue growth: “close to 30%” (driven by AI-related demand)
🔸 Long-term gross margin guide raised: 56% (from 53%)
🔸 AI accelerator rev growth: mid-to-high 50s% CAGR (2024–2029), raised from prior mid-40s%
🔸 Long-term total revenue growth: ~25% CAGR (2024–2029)
🔸 “Foundry 2.0” industry: 14% growth in 2026 (company view)
Node Roadmap (Mgmt)
🔹 N2 “entered… high volume manufacturing” in Q4’25 at Hsinchu + Kaohsiung with “good yield”
🔹 N2P: volume production scheduled 2H’26; “performance and power” benefits
🔹 A16: on track for volume production 2H’26; includes backside power delivery (“Super Power Rail”)
Capacity + Expansion (Mgmt)
🔹 Supply-demand: “capacity is very tight”… looking at 2028 or 2029 to “narrow the gap”
🔹 Arizona: yield/defect density “almost equal to Taiwan”… “we are going to expand many fabs there”
🔹 Timing (company): AZ Fab2 now expected to enter high volume manufacturing in 2H’27; Fab3 construction started; permits underway for Fab4 + an advanced packaging fab
Advanced Packaging + Mature Nodes
🔹 Advanced packaging: ~8% of 2025 revenue; expected to be “slightly over 10%” over time. 2026 capex around 10-20% will be for advanced packaging.
🔹 8-inch: output reduced, but “continue to support” customers as long as demand is there
Commentary:
🔸 “AI is real, not only real, it’s starting to grow into our daily life.”
🔸 “I’m also very nervous about it… we have to invest about $52 billion-$56 billion for the CapEx… If we didn’t do it carefully… that would be a big disaster for TSMC.”
🔸 “I spend a lot of time… talking to my customer and then customers’ customer… I want to make sure… demand are real… they show me the evidence…”
🔸 “Capacity is very tight… we work very hard to narrow the gap…”
🔸 “We are looking at 2028 or 2029… we hope the supply gap will be narrowed.”
🔸 “I worry about the electricity in Taiwan first.”
🔸 CFO: “Our pricing will remain strategic, not opportunistic.”
🔸 Build-out reality: “It takes two to three years to build a new fab”… meaningfully helps “2028 or 2029.”
🔸 Biggest constraint: “the bottleneck is… wafer supply.” tweet