Offshore
Video
Moon Dev
the dont believe me or you can predict price
so i manage risk with size
and buy and sell around liquidations instead https://t.co/Qb5wB1nltY
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the dont believe me or you can predict price
so i manage risk with size
and buy and sell around liquidations instead https://t.co/Qb5wB1nltY
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
This is one of the hardest tensions in investing:
Conviction vs adaptability 💬
The best investments often require persistent conviction through long stretches of boredom. Take $ASML — it didn’t do much from early 2023 through mid-2025… and then went on a monster run. In that case, conviction was “easier” because the fundamentals were obvious: near-monopoly position, mission-critical tools, and demand compounding beneath the surface
But conviction without flexibility becomes stubbornness ‼️
Stanley Druckenmiller captured it perfectly:
“I’m not wedded to anything… When the facts change, I change”
So the real skill isn’t being “bullish” or “bearish”
It’s holding strong views lightly — and letting new information update the thesis without ego
___
5 Signs you should be flexible & Re-Underwrite the Thesis
1. The core “why” breaks: The main driver of compounding changes (pricing power weakens, moat narrows, unit economics deteriorate)
2. Capital allocation deteriorates: Value-destructive M&A, leverage creep, buybacks stop despite strong FCF, SBC ramps without offset
3. Quality metrics trend the wrong way: ROIC declining, margins compressing structurally, FCF conversion worsening — the business gets worse over time
4. Competition becomes real, not theoretical: Evidence shows up in falling take rates, market share loss, higher CAC, rising churn, or forced price cuts
5. A pattern of negative surprises emerges: Not one bad quarter — repeated misses, constant narrative changes, “one-time” issues every time
tweet
This is one of the hardest tensions in investing:
Conviction vs adaptability 💬
The best investments often require persistent conviction through long stretches of boredom. Take $ASML — it didn’t do much from early 2023 through mid-2025… and then went on a monster run. In that case, conviction was “easier” because the fundamentals were obvious: near-monopoly position, mission-critical tools, and demand compounding beneath the surface
But conviction without flexibility becomes stubbornness ‼️
Stanley Druckenmiller captured it perfectly:
“I’m not wedded to anything… When the facts change, I change”
So the real skill isn’t being “bullish” or “bearish”
It’s holding strong views lightly — and letting new information update the thesis without ego
___
5 Signs you should be flexible & Re-Underwrite the Thesis
1. The core “why” breaks: The main driver of compounding changes (pricing power weakens, moat narrows, unit economics deteriorate)
2. Capital allocation deteriorates: Value-destructive M&A, leverage creep, buybacks stop despite strong FCF, SBC ramps without offset
3. Quality metrics trend the wrong way: ROIC declining, margins compressing structurally, FCF conversion worsening — the business gets worse over time
4. Competition becomes real, not theoretical: Evidence shows up in falling take rates, market share loss, higher CAC, rising churn, or forced price cuts
5. A pattern of negative surprises emerges: Not one bad quarter — repeated misses, constant narrative changes, “one-time” issues every time
I’m increasingly convinced that the willingness to change your mind is the ultimate sign of intelligence. The most impressive people I know change their minds often in response to new information. It’s like a software update. The goal isn't to be right. It's to find the truth. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) on X
I’m increasingly convinced that the willingness to change your mind is the ultimate sign of intelligence. The most impressive people I know change their minds often in response to new information. It’s like a software update. The goal isn't to be right. It's…
AkhenOsiris
$APP
Evercore ISI initiates Applovin Overweight, $835 price target. Bull case $1010.
"Our Stock Call: We are initiating coverage of APP with an Outperform rating and $835 price target (25% upside). APP is the dominant ad tech platform for mobile gaming with an emerging e-commerce performance channel, which we view as a material TAM expander. Combined, we expect mobile gaming and e-commerce ad spend to sustain 30%+ revenue and EBITDA CAGRS from '25 to '28, and believe that APP can maintain its current 36x FY26 EV/EBITDA valuation multiple. Key Debates: 1) Core Mobile Gaming Runway. We view as ample given solid underlying industry dynamics, catalysts, and APP's superior execution. We forecast that APP's mobile gaming ad spend can grow at a 23% CAGR thru '28; 2) E-commerce Ads Scalability. While too soon to tell if APP can become a credible fourth scaled digital marketing channel for e-com (complementing GOOGL, META and AMZN), industry checks and 3P pixel tracking indicate strong recent momentum. We believe APP can achieve HSD-LDD penetration of DTC e-commerce advertiser spend in FY28 (i.e., $3.4B of revenue on $7.5B of ad spend VS. a $75B-$150B ads TAM, supported by ~$750B+ of global DTC GMV)."
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$APP
Evercore ISI initiates Applovin Overweight, $835 price target. Bull case $1010.
"Our Stock Call: We are initiating coverage of APP with an Outperform rating and $835 price target (25% upside). APP is the dominant ad tech platform for mobile gaming with an emerging e-commerce performance channel, which we view as a material TAM expander. Combined, we expect mobile gaming and e-commerce ad spend to sustain 30%+ revenue and EBITDA CAGRS from '25 to '28, and believe that APP can maintain its current 36x FY26 EV/EBITDA valuation multiple. Key Debates: 1) Core Mobile Gaming Runway. We view as ample given solid underlying industry dynamics, catalysts, and APP's superior execution. We forecast that APP's mobile gaming ad spend can grow at a 23% CAGR thru '28; 2) E-commerce Ads Scalability. While too soon to tell if APP can become a credible fourth scaled digital marketing channel for e-com (complementing GOOGL, META and AMZN), industry checks and 3P pixel tracking indicate strong recent momentum. We believe APP can achieve HSD-LDD penetration of DTC e-commerce advertiser spend in FY28 (i.e., $3.4B of revenue on $7.5B of ad spend VS. a $75B-$150B ads TAM, supported by ~$750B+ of global DTC GMV)."
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: We just caught more STOCK Act violations.
Representative Julia Letlow just filed dozens of stock transactions months past the filing deadline.
She bought Micron Technology, $MU, in April.
It has risen 376% since then.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/xRr96nkdCN
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BREAKING: We just caught more STOCK Act violations.
Representative Julia Letlow just filed dozens of stock transactions months past the filing deadline.
She bought Micron Technology, $MU, in April.
It has risen 376% since then.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/xRr96nkdCN
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Illiquid
Thai construction company involved in the 30 floor project that collapsed during last year's earthquake (killing 95 people) now drops a crane on a moving train. Not a great look for Thailand.
https://t.co/GtcYgMfko4
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Thai construction company involved in the 30 floor project that collapsed during last year's earthquake (killing 95 people) now drops a crane on a moving train. Not a great look for Thailand.
https://t.co/GtcYgMfko4
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
🚧 Wall Street hits a speed bump.
Fed fights, rate caps, and more.
• $JPM: Apple Card Takeover
• $BAC: Equities Surge
• $WFC: Growing Pains
• $C: Transformation Takes Shape
Let's visualize the big banks. 👇
https://t.co/SRUVhS0zOm
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🚧 Wall Street hits a speed bump.
Fed fights, rate caps, and more.
• $JPM: Apple Card Takeover
• $BAC: Equities Surge
• $WFC: Growing Pains
• $C: Transformation Takes Shape
Let's visualize the big banks. 👇
https://t.co/SRUVhS0zOm
tweet
Offshore
Video
God of Prompt
RIP complex data stacks (as we know them).
What used to take a full data team and weeks of setup now happens in minutes with Fabi 2.0.
One AI platform. Complete flexibility:
→ Connect HubSpot, PostHog, Shopify, Stripe, Google Ads
→ Chat interface to dashboards in seconds
→ Python-backed for custom analysis
Just ask AI. Fabi does the rest.
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RIP complex data stacks (as we know them).
What used to take a full data team and weeks of setup now happens in minutes with Fabi 2.0.
One AI platform. Complete flexibility:
→ Connect HubSpot, PostHog, Shopify, Stripe, Google Ads
→ Chat interface to dashboards in seconds
→ Python-backed for custom analysis
Just ask AI. Fabi does the rest.
Today we’re introducing @hqfabi 2.0 - Your AI analyst for ALL your data
Connect to *any* data source.
Analyze it using an AI agent that understands (and learns!) your business.
Turn your insights into dashboards or workflows in minutes. https://t.co/ygODIvdCtc tweet
Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Mark Zuckerberg breaks down the Facebook “playbook”
“Phase one is build a thing that sparks some joy and that people appreciate. From there you want to get to something that is retentive. That way people who have a good experience with the thing come back and keep using it. And those two things are not always the same. There are a lot of things that people think are awesome but may not always come back to.”
He gives ChatGPT as an example of an awesome product that hasn’t quite solved retention:
“This level of AI is a miracle, but that doesn’t mean everyone is going to have a use case every week.”
After creating a spark and retaining people, step three is growth and scaling the community:
“Once you have retention, you can start encouraging more people to join. But if people aren’t going to be retained by it, why would you ask people to go sign up for something?”
And then the last and final step step (step 4) is monetization:
“We take a while to go through all those. We’re really in some sense only getting started on the monetization of the messaging experiences like WhatsApp with stuff like business messaging. But 2 billion people use the product every day. So we’ve scaled it pretty far. But I think with our model that sort of works.”
Video source: @verge (2023)
tweet
Mark Zuckerberg breaks down the Facebook “playbook”
“Phase one is build a thing that sparks some joy and that people appreciate. From there you want to get to something that is retentive. That way people who have a good experience with the thing come back and keep using it. And those two things are not always the same. There are a lot of things that people think are awesome but may not always come back to.”
He gives ChatGPT as an example of an awesome product that hasn’t quite solved retention:
“This level of AI is a miracle, but that doesn’t mean everyone is going to have a use case every week.”
After creating a spark and retaining people, step three is growth and scaling the community:
“Once you have retention, you can start encouraging more people to join. But if people aren’t going to be retained by it, why would you ask people to go sign up for something?”
And then the last and final step step (step 4) is monetization:
“We take a while to go through all those. We’re really in some sense only getting started on the monetization of the messaging experiences like WhatsApp with stuff like business messaging. But 2 billion people use the product every day. So we’ve scaled it pretty far. But I think with our model that sort of works.”
Video source: @verge (2023)
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