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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Today’s sell-off in $MA and $V brings both back to an interesting level 💳 https://t.co/PxdpKqp89h
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RT @DimitryNakhla: Today’s sell-off in $MA and $V brings both back to an interesting level 💳 https://t.co/PxdpKqp89h
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Offshore
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Moon Dev
the dont believe me or you can predict price
so i manage risk with size
and buy and sell around liquidations instead https://t.co/Qb5wB1nltY
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the dont believe me or you can predict price
so i manage risk with size
and buy and sell around liquidations instead https://t.co/Qb5wB1nltY
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
This is one of the hardest tensions in investing:
Conviction vs adaptability 💬
The best investments often require persistent conviction through long stretches of boredom. Take $ASML — it didn’t do much from early 2023 through mid-2025… and then went on a monster run. In that case, conviction was “easier” because the fundamentals were obvious: near-monopoly position, mission-critical tools, and demand compounding beneath the surface
But conviction without flexibility becomes stubbornness ‼️
Stanley Druckenmiller captured it perfectly:
“I’m not wedded to anything… When the facts change, I change”
So the real skill isn’t being “bullish” or “bearish”
It’s holding strong views lightly — and letting new information update the thesis without ego
___
5 Signs you should be flexible & Re-Underwrite the Thesis
1. The core “why” breaks: The main driver of compounding changes (pricing power weakens, moat narrows, unit economics deteriorate)
2. Capital allocation deteriorates: Value-destructive M&A, leverage creep, buybacks stop despite strong FCF, SBC ramps without offset
3. Quality metrics trend the wrong way: ROIC declining, margins compressing structurally, FCF conversion worsening — the business gets worse over time
4. Competition becomes real, not theoretical: Evidence shows up in falling take rates, market share loss, higher CAC, rising churn, or forced price cuts
5. A pattern of negative surprises emerges: Not one bad quarter — repeated misses, constant narrative changes, “one-time” issues every time
tweet
This is one of the hardest tensions in investing:
Conviction vs adaptability 💬
The best investments often require persistent conviction through long stretches of boredom. Take $ASML — it didn’t do much from early 2023 through mid-2025… and then went on a monster run. In that case, conviction was “easier” because the fundamentals were obvious: near-monopoly position, mission-critical tools, and demand compounding beneath the surface
But conviction without flexibility becomes stubbornness ‼️
Stanley Druckenmiller captured it perfectly:
“I’m not wedded to anything… When the facts change, I change”
So the real skill isn’t being “bullish” or “bearish”
It’s holding strong views lightly — and letting new information update the thesis without ego
___
5 Signs you should be flexible & Re-Underwrite the Thesis
1. The core “why” breaks: The main driver of compounding changes (pricing power weakens, moat narrows, unit economics deteriorate)
2. Capital allocation deteriorates: Value-destructive M&A, leverage creep, buybacks stop despite strong FCF, SBC ramps without offset
3. Quality metrics trend the wrong way: ROIC declining, margins compressing structurally, FCF conversion worsening — the business gets worse over time
4. Competition becomes real, not theoretical: Evidence shows up in falling take rates, market share loss, higher CAC, rising churn, or forced price cuts
5. A pattern of negative surprises emerges: Not one bad quarter — repeated misses, constant narrative changes, “one-time” issues every time
I’m increasingly convinced that the willingness to change your mind is the ultimate sign of intelligence. The most impressive people I know change their minds often in response to new information. It’s like a software update. The goal isn't to be right. It's to find the truth. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) on X
I’m increasingly convinced that the willingness to change your mind is the ultimate sign of intelligence. The most impressive people I know change their minds often in response to new information. It’s like a software update. The goal isn't to be right. It's…
AkhenOsiris
$APP
Evercore ISI initiates Applovin Overweight, $835 price target. Bull case $1010.
"Our Stock Call: We are initiating coverage of APP with an Outperform rating and $835 price target (25% upside). APP is the dominant ad tech platform for mobile gaming with an emerging e-commerce performance channel, which we view as a material TAM expander. Combined, we expect mobile gaming and e-commerce ad spend to sustain 30%+ revenue and EBITDA CAGRS from '25 to '28, and believe that APP can maintain its current 36x FY26 EV/EBITDA valuation multiple. Key Debates: 1) Core Mobile Gaming Runway. We view as ample given solid underlying industry dynamics, catalysts, and APP's superior execution. We forecast that APP's mobile gaming ad spend can grow at a 23% CAGR thru '28; 2) E-commerce Ads Scalability. While too soon to tell if APP can become a credible fourth scaled digital marketing channel for e-com (complementing GOOGL, META and AMZN), industry checks and 3P pixel tracking indicate strong recent momentum. We believe APP can achieve HSD-LDD penetration of DTC e-commerce advertiser spend in FY28 (i.e., $3.4B of revenue on $7.5B of ad spend VS. a $75B-$150B ads TAM, supported by ~$750B+ of global DTC GMV)."
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$APP
Evercore ISI initiates Applovin Overweight, $835 price target. Bull case $1010.
"Our Stock Call: We are initiating coverage of APP with an Outperform rating and $835 price target (25% upside). APP is the dominant ad tech platform for mobile gaming with an emerging e-commerce performance channel, which we view as a material TAM expander. Combined, we expect mobile gaming and e-commerce ad spend to sustain 30%+ revenue and EBITDA CAGRS from '25 to '28, and believe that APP can maintain its current 36x FY26 EV/EBITDA valuation multiple. Key Debates: 1) Core Mobile Gaming Runway. We view as ample given solid underlying industry dynamics, catalysts, and APP's superior execution. We forecast that APP's mobile gaming ad spend can grow at a 23% CAGR thru '28; 2) E-commerce Ads Scalability. While too soon to tell if APP can become a credible fourth scaled digital marketing channel for e-com (complementing GOOGL, META and AMZN), industry checks and 3P pixel tracking indicate strong recent momentum. We believe APP can achieve HSD-LDD penetration of DTC e-commerce advertiser spend in FY28 (i.e., $3.4B of revenue on $7.5B of ad spend VS. a $75B-$150B ads TAM, supported by ~$750B+ of global DTC GMV)."
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: We just caught more STOCK Act violations.
Representative Julia Letlow just filed dozens of stock transactions months past the filing deadline.
She bought Micron Technology, $MU, in April.
It has risen 376% since then.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/xRr96nkdCN
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BREAKING: We just caught more STOCK Act violations.
Representative Julia Letlow just filed dozens of stock transactions months past the filing deadline.
She bought Micron Technology, $MU, in April.
It has risen 376% since then.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/xRr96nkdCN
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Illiquid
Thai construction company involved in the 30 floor project that collapsed during last year's earthquake (killing 95 people) now drops a crane on a moving train. Not a great look for Thailand.
https://t.co/GtcYgMfko4
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Thai construction company involved in the 30 floor project that collapsed during last year's earthquake (killing 95 people) now drops a crane on a moving train. Not a great look for Thailand.
https://t.co/GtcYgMfko4
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Offshore
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App Economy Insights
🚧 Wall Street hits a speed bump.
Fed fights, rate caps, and more.
• $JPM: Apple Card Takeover
• $BAC: Equities Surge
• $WFC: Growing Pains
• $C: Transformation Takes Shape
Let's visualize the big banks. 👇
https://t.co/SRUVhS0zOm
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🚧 Wall Street hits a speed bump.
Fed fights, rate caps, and more.
• $JPM: Apple Card Takeover
• $BAC: Equities Surge
• $WFC: Growing Pains
• $C: Transformation Takes Shape
Let's visualize the big banks. 👇
https://t.co/SRUVhS0zOm
tweet