Offshore
Illiquid Nittobo gets another article in Nikkei Asia today. TAIPEI/TOKYO -- It looks something like heavy-duty plastic wrap and is buried so deep in the guts of an iPhone that most users don't even know it exists. But short supplies of high-end glass cloth…
scale in their products. But even the iPhone maker, with its formidable procurement power, has been caught off guard by heavyweight buyers such as Nvidia, Amazon and Google entering the fray.
Cupertino, California-based Apple has spoken to suppliers about using less-advanced types of glass cloth, but it would take time to test and verify alternative materials, doing little to immediately improve the situation, according to two people with knowledge of the discussions.
https://t.co/82mReHGclV
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Cupertino, California-based Apple has spoken to suppliers about using less-advanced types of glass cloth, but it would take time to test and verify alternative materials, doing little to immediately improve the situation, according to two people with knowledge of the discussions.
https://t.co/82mReHGclV
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Offshore
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God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: AI agents are dying. Prompting is evolving. MCP is rewriting the rules.
I'm moderating a panel at AI Skills'2026 to break down what's dead vs. what's next.
Jan 22. 3,000+ attendees. 4+ hours. Free.
Save your free seat: https://t.co/T3LxdWm0DL https://t.co/pb98xxBBUY
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RT @godofprompt: AI agents are dying. Prompting is evolving. MCP is rewriting the rules.
I'm moderating a panel at AI Skills'2026 to break down what's dead vs. what's next.
Jan 22. 3,000+ attendees. 4+ hours. Free.
Save your free seat: https://t.co/T3LxdWm0DL https://t.co/pb98xxBBUY
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Today’s sell-off in $MA and $V brings both back to an interesting level 💳 https://t.co/PxdpKqp89h
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RT @DimitryNakhla: Today’s sell-off in $MA and $V brings both back to an interesting level 💳 https://t.co/PxdpKqp89h
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Offshore
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Moon Dev
the dont believe me or you can predict price
so i manage risk with size
and buy and sell around liquidations instead https://t.co/Qb5wB1nltY
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the dont believe me or you can predict price
so i manage risk with size
and buy and sell around liquidations instead https://t.co/Qb5wB1nltY
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
This is one of the hardest tensions in investing:
Conviction vs adaptability 💬
The best investments often require persistent conviction through long stretches of boredom. Take $ASML — it didn’t do much from early 2023 through mid-2025… and then went on a monster run. In that case, conviction was “easier” because the fundamentals were obvious: near-monopoly position, mission-critical tools, and demand compounding beneath the surface
But conviction without flexibility becomes stubbornness ‼️
Stanley Druckenmiller captured it perfectly:
“I’m not wedded to anything… When the facts change, I change”
So the real skill isn’t being “bullish” or “bearish”
It’s holding strong views lightly — and letting new information update the thesis without ego
___
5 Signs you should be flexible & Re-Underwrite the Thesis
1. The core “why” breaks: The main driver of compounding changes (pricing power weakens, moat narrows, unit economics deteriorate)
2. Capital allocation deteriorates: Value-destructive M&A, leverage creep, buybacks stop despite strong FCF, SBC ramps without offset
3. Quality metrics trend the wrong way: ROIC declining, margins compressing structurally, FCF conversion worsening — the business gets worse over time
4. Competition becomes real, not theoretical: Evidence shows up in falling take rates, market share loss, higher CAC, rising churn, or forced price cuts
5. A pattern of negative surprises emerges: Not one bad quarter — repeated misses, constant narrative changes, “one-time” issues every time
tweet
This is one of the hardest tensions in investing:
Conviction vs adaptability 💬
The best investments often require persistent conviction through long stretches of boredom. Take $ASML — it didn’t do much from early 2023 through mid-2025… and then went on a monster run. In that case, conviction was “easier” because the fundamentals were obvious: near-monopoly position, mission-critical tools, and demand compounding beneath the surface
But conviction without flexibility becomes stubbornness ‼️
Stanley Druckenmiller captured it perfectly:
“I’m not wedded to anything… When the facts change, I change”
So the real skill isn’t being “bullish” or “bearish”
It’s holding strong views lightly — and letting new information update the thesis without ego
___
5 Signs you should be flexible & Re-Underwrite the Thesis
1. The core “why” breaks: The main driver of compounding changes (pricing power weakens, moat narrows, unit economics deteriorate)
2. Capital allocation deteriorates: Value-destructive M&A, leverage creep, buybacks stop despite strong FCF, SBC ramps without offset
3. Quality metrics trend the wrong way: ROIC declining, margins compressing structurally, FCF conversion worsening — the business gets worse over time
4. Competition becomes real, not theoretical: Evidence shows up in falling take rates, market share loss, higher CAC, rising churn, or forced price cuts
5. A pattern of negative surprises emerges: Not one bad quarter — repeated misses, constant narrative changes, “one-time” issues every time
I’m increasingly convinced that the willingness to change your mind is the ultimate sign of intelligence. The most impressive people I know change their minds often in response to new information. It’s like a software update. The goal isn't to be right. It's to find the truth. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) on X
I’m increasingly convinced that the willingness to change your mind is the ultimate sign of intelligence. The most impressive people I know change their minds often in response to new information. It’s like a software update. The goal isn't to be right. It's…
AkhenOsiris
$APP
Evercore ISI initiates Applovin Overweight, $835 price target. Bull case $1010.
"Our Stock Call: We are initiating coverage of APP with an Outperform rating and $835 price target (25% upside). APP is the dominant ad tech platform for mobile gaming with an emerging e-commerce performance channel, which we view as a material TAM expander. Combined, we expect mobile gaming and e-commerce ad spend to sustain 30%+ revenue and EBITDA CAGRS from '25 to '28, and believe that APP can maintain its current 36x FY26 EV/EBITDA valuation multiple. Key Debates: 1) Core Mobile Gaming Runway. We view as ample given solid underlying industry dynamics, catalysts, and APP's superior execution. We forecast that APP's mobile gaming ad spend can grow at a 23% CAGR thru '28; 2) E-commerce Ads Scalability. While too soon to tell if APP can become a credible fourth scaled digital marketing channel for e-com (complementing GOOGL, META and AMZN), industry checks and 3P pixel tracking indicate strong recent momentum. We believe APP can achieve HSD-LDD penetration of DTC e-commerce advertiser spend in FY28 (i.e., $3.4B of revenue on $7.5B of ad spend VS. a $75B-$150B ads TAM, supported by ~$750B+ of global DTC GMV)."
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$APP
Evercore ISI initiates Applovin Overweight, $835 price target. Bull case $1010.
"Our Stock Call: We are initiating coverage of APP with an Outperform rating and $835 price target (25% upside). APP is the dominant ad tech platform for mobile gaming with an emerging e-commerce performance channel, which we view as a material TAM expander. Combined, we expect mobile gaming and e-commerce ad spend to sustain 30%+ revenue and EBITDA CAGRS from '25 to '28, and believe that APP can maintain its current 36x FY26 EV/EBITDA valuation multiple. Key Debates: 1) Core Mobile Gaming Runway. We view as ample given solid underlying industry dynamics, catalysts, and APP's superior execution. We forecast that APP's mobile gaming ad spend can grow at a 23% CAGR thru '28; 2) E-commerce Ads Scalability. While too soon to tell if APP can become a credible fourth scaled digital marketing channel for e-com (complementing GOOGL, META and AMZN), industry checks and 3P pixel tracking indicate strong recent momentum. We believe APP can achieve HSD-LDD penetration of DTC e-commerce advertiser spend in FY28 (i.e., $3.4B of revenue on $7.5B of ad spend VS. a $75B-$150B ads TAM, supported by ~$750B+ of global DTC GMV)."
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: We just caught more STOCK Act violations.
Representative Julia Letlow just filed dozens of stock transactions months past the filing deadline.
She bought Micron Technology, $MU, in April.
It has risen 376% since then.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/xRr96nkdCN
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BREAKING: We just caught more STOCK Act violations.
Representative Julia Letlow just filed dozens of stock transactions months past the filing deadline.
She bought Micron Technology, $MU, in April.
It has risen 376% since then.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/xRr96nkdCN
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Offshore
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Illiquid
Thai construction company involved in the 30 floor project that collapsed during last year's earthquake (killing 95 people) now drops a crane on a moving train. Not a great look for Thailand.
https://t.co/GtcYgMfko4
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Thai construction company involved in the 30 floor project that collapsed during last year's earthquake (killing 95 people) now drops a crane on a moving train. Not a great look for Thailand.
https://t.co/GtcYgMfko4
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