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Moon Dev
dont miss this one
You're not gonna wanna miss today's Zoom.
I'm going to be showing you real results of real backtests on this liquidation data.
This is an approach to the market that nobody else takes.
See it all for yourself if there's still a ticket available.
join: https://t.co/Aw7dcEw2RV
moon dev
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dont miss this one
You're not gonna wanna miss today's Zoom.
I'm going to be showing you real results of real backtests on this liquidation data.
This is an approach to the market that nobody else takes.
See it all for yourself if there's still a ticket available.
join: https://t.co/Aw7dcEw2RV
moon dev
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Offshore
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Startup Archive
Marc Andreessen on AI: “This is clearly bigger than the Internet”
“This is the biggest technological revolution of my life,” a16z co-founder Marc Andreessen begins. “This is clearly bigger than the Internet. The comps on this are things like the microprocessor, the steam engine, and electricity.”
Marc explains:
“The reason this is so big is if you trace back to the 1930s (there’s a great book called Rise of the Machines that goes through this), there was actually a debate among the people who invented the computer. They understood the theory of computation before they built the things, and they had this big debate over whether the computer should be built in the image of what at the time were called ‘Calculating Machines’ — think cash registers (IBM was actually the successor to the National Cash Register Company of America) — and that was the path that the industry took, building these hyper-literal, mathematical machines that could execute mathematical operations billions of times per second . . . that’s the computer industry that got built over the last 80 years.”
However, there was another path considered:
“They understood the structure of the human brain and had a theory of human cognition and neural networks. The first neural network academic paper was published in 1943. You can watch an interview on YouTube with the author [Warren] McCulloch — it’s an amazing interview because it’s him in his beach house and for some reason he’s not wearing a shirt, and he’s talking about this future in which computers will be built on the model of the human brain through neural networks. And that was the path not taken. But the neural network as an idea continued to be explored in academia and advanced research by a sort of rump movement that was originally called Cybernetics and then became known as Artificial Intelligence basically for the last 80 years. And essentially it didn’t work. It was decade after decade of excessive optimism, followed by disappointment.”
Marc continues:
“But the scientists kept working on it to their credit, and they built up this enormous reservoir of concepts and ideas. Then basically we all saw what happened with the ChatGPT moment. All of a sudden it crystalized, and it was like, ‘Oh my God, it turns out it works.’ That’s the moment we’re in now, and really significantly, that was less than three years ago . . . We’re sort of three years into effectively an 80-year revolution.”
Video source: @a16z (2026)
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Marc Andreessen on AI: “This is clearly bigger than the Internet”
“This is the biggest technological revolution of my life,” a16z co-founder Marc Andreessen begins. “This is clearly bigger than the Internet. The comps on this are things like the microprocessor, the steam engine, and electricity.”
Marc explains:
“The reason this is so big is if you trace back to the 1930s (there’s a great book called Rise of the Machines that goes through this), there was actually a debate among the people who invented the computer. They understood the theory of computation before they built the things, and they had this big debate over whether the computer should be built in the image of what at the time were called ‘Calculating Machines’ — think cash registers (IBM was actually the successor to the National Cash Register Company of America) — and that was the path that the industry took, building these hyper-literal, mathematical machines that could execute mathematical operations billions of times per second . . . that’s the computer industry that got built over the last 80 years.”
However, there was another path considered:
“They understood the structure of the human brain and had a theory of human cognition and neural networks. The first neural network academic paper was published in 1943. You can watch an interview on YouTube with the author [Warren] McCulloch — it’s an amazing interview because it’s him in his beach house and for some reason he’s not wearing a shirt, and he’s talking about this future in which computers will be built on the model of the human brain through neural networks. And that was the path not taken. But the neural network as an idea continued to be explored in academia and advanced research by a sort of rump movement that was originally called Cybernetics and then became known as Artificial Intelligence basically for the last 80 years. And essentially it didn’t work. It was decade after decade of excessive optimism, followed by disappointment.”
Marc continues:
“But the scientists kept working on it to their credit, and they built up this enormous reservoir of concepts and ideas. Then basically we all saw what happened with the ChatGPT moment. All of a sudden it crystalized, and it was like, ‘Oh my God, it turns out it works.’ That’s the moment we’re in now, and really significantly, that was less than three years ago . . . We’re sort of three years into effectively an 80-year revolution.”
Video source: @a16z (2026)
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Illiquid
Nittobo gets another article in Nikkei Asia today.
TAIPEI/TOKYO -- It looks something like heavy-duty plastic wrap and is buried so deep in the guts of an iPhone that most users don't even know it exists. But short supplies of high-end glass cloth fiber have Apple scrambling against the likes of Nvidia, Google and Amazon to secure the same scarce resource.
Glass cloth is a critical component in chip substrates and printed circuit boards (PCBs), themselves the building blocks of electronic devices, and the most advanced types of this cloth are made almost exclusively by one Japanese company: Nitto Boseki, or Nittobo for short.
Apple was an early adopter of Nittobo's glass cloth for iPhones. Initially, there was little issue with supply. The AI boom has turbo-charged demand for high-performance PCBs made with premium glass cloth, meaning deep-pocketed AI companies are now also hungry for Nittobo's products, putting not just Apple but also mobile chip giant Qualcomm at risk of supply shortages.
The constraints in glass fiber and the resulting crunch in PCB supplies are creating what one industry insider calls "one of the biggest bottlenecks for the electronics-making and AI industry for 2026."
Amid growing concerns, Apple dispatched staff to Japan last autumn, stationing them at Mitsubishi Gas Chemical to try to secure more supplies of materials used in BT substrates, sources told Nikkei Asia.
Many types of chips require BT substrates -- or bismaleimide triazine substrates, as they are formally known -- as their base, including those used in iPhones and other mobile devices. And to produce its BT substrate materials, MGC needs Nittobo's glass cloth.
The iPhone maker went even further and asked Japanese government officials if they could help secure more supplies from Nittobo to meet its 2026 product roadmap, people familiar with the matter said -- a particularly urgent concern as Apple prepares to introduce its first ever foldable iPhone and for a further recovery of the handset market this year.
...
Apple is also working hard to cultivate alternative sources, including sending employees to a small Chinese glass fiber maker known as Grace Fabric Technology (GFT) and asking MGC to help oversee the Chinese material supplier's quality improvement, two sources familiar with the matter said.
The iPhone maker is not the only one worrying. Qualcomm is the world's leading mobile chip builder and supplies processors for premium smartphones such as those from Samsung Electronics. Sources told Nikkei Asia that Qualcomm visited another, smaller Japanese glass cloth supplier Unitika to see if it could help ease the constraints. The quantity that Unitika produces, however, is far smaller than that of Nittobo, they said.
"This is one of the biggest bottlenecks for the electronics-making and AI industry for 2026," an executive from a supplier to Nvidia and Apple told Nikkei Asia.
...
Many new entrants are hoping to capitalize on the constrained supply, such as Taiwan Glass, a traditional glass maker based in Taipei, and China's Taishan Fiberglass, Grace Fabric and Kingboard Laminates Group.
But the technological barriers to entry are extremely high -- every glass fiber is much thinner than a human hair and must be perfectly round and free of any bubbles -- and newcomers are struggling to achieve adequate capacity and consistent quality, people familiar with the situation said. No tech giant is willing to risk mounting their high-end chips on substrates that could compromise the quality of its final products, industry executives told Nikkei Asia.
"The stability of T-glass cloth is a decisive factor for substrate quality," said a source with a substrate equipment maker, while a PCB manufacturing executive said that its location deep inside a device's substrate means it cannot be taken out and fixed later.
Apple pioneered the use of high-end glass fiber in its smartphones, well before AI chip leaders began deploying such materials at [...]
Nittobo gets another article in Nikkei Asia today.
TAIPEI/TOKYO -- It looks something like heavy-duty plastic wrap and is buried so deep in the guts of an iPhone that most users don't even know it exists. But short supplies of high-end glass cloth fiber have Apple scrambling against the likes of Nvidia, Google and Amazon to secure the same scarce resource.
Glass cloth is a critical component in chip substrates and printed circuit boards (PCBs), themselves the building blocks of electronic devices, and the most advanced types of this cloth are made almost exclusively by one Japanese company: Nitto Boseki, or Nittobo for short.
Apple was an early adopter of Nittobo's glass cloth for iPhones. Initially, there was little issue with supply. The AI boom has turbo-charged demand for high-performance PCBs made with premium glass cloth, meaning deep-pocketed AI companies are now also hungry for Nittobo's products, putting not just Apple but also mobile chip giant Qualcomm at risk of supply shortages.
The constraints in glass fiber and the resulting crunch in PCB supplies are creating what one industry insider calls "one of the biggest bottlenecks for the electronics-making and AI industry for 2026."
Amid growing concerns, Apple dispatched staff to Japan last autumn, stationing them at Mitsubishi Gas Chemical to try to secure more supplies of materials used in BT substrates, sources told Nikkei Asia.
Many types of chips require BT substrates -- or bismaleimide triazine substrates, as they are formally known -- as their base, including those used in iPhones and other mobile devices. And to produce its BT substrate materials, MGC needs Nittobo's glass cloth.
The iPhone maker went even further and asked Japanese government officials if they could help secure more supplies from Nittobo to meet its 2026 product roadmap, people familiar with the matter said -- a particularly urgent concern as Apple prepares to introduce its first ever foldable iPhone and for a further recovery of the handset market this year.
...
Apple is also working hard to cultivate alternative sources, including sending employees to a small Chinese glass fiber maker known as Grace Fabric Technology (GFT) and asking MGC to help oversee the Chinese material supplier's quality improvement, two sources familiar with the matter said.
The iPhone maker is not the only one worrying. Qualcomm is the world's leading mobile chip builder and supplies processors for premium smartphones such as those from Samsung Electronics. Sources told Nikkei Asia that Qualcomm visited another, smaller Japanese glass cloth supplier Unitika to see if it could help ease the constraints. The quantity that Unitika produces, however, is far smaller than that of Nittobo, they said.
"This is one of the biggest bottlenecks for the electronics-making and AI industry for 2026," an executive from a supplier to Nvidia and Apple told Nikkei Asia.
...
Many new entrants are hoping to capitalize on the constrained supply, such as Taiwan Glass, a traditional glass maker based in Taipei, and China's Taishan Fiberglass, Grace Fabric and Kingboard Laminates Group.
But the technological barriers to entry are extremely high -- every glass fiber is much thinner than a human hair and must be perfectly round and free of any bubbles -- and newcomers are struggling to achieve adequate capacity and consistent quality, people familiar with the situation said. No tech giant is willing to risk mounting their high-end chips on substrates that could compromise the quality of its final products, industry executives told Nikkei Asia.
"The stability of T-glass cloth is a decisive factor for substrate quality," said a source with a substrate equipment maker, while a PCB manufacturing executive said that its location deep inside a device's substrate means it cannot be taken out and fixed later.
Apple pioneered the use of high-end glass fiber in its smartphones, well before AI chip leaders began deploying such materials at [...]
Offshore
Illiquid Nittobo gets another article in Nikkei Asia today. TAIPEI/TOKYO -- It looks something like heavy-duty plastic wrap and is buried so deep in the guts of an iPhone that most users don't even know it exists. But short supplies of high-end glass cloth…
scale in their products. But even the iPhone maker, with its formidable procurement power, has been caught off guard by heavyweight buyers such as Nvidia, Amazon and Google entering the fray.
Cupertino, California-based Apple has spoken to suppliers about using less-advanced types of glass cloth, but it would take time to test and verify alternative materials, doing little to immediately improve the situation, according to two people with knowledge of the discussions.
https://t.co/82mReHGclV
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Cupertino, California-based Apple has spoken to suppliers about using less-advanced types of glass cloth, but it would take time to test and verify alternative materials, doing little to immediately improve the situation, according to two people with knowledge of the discussions.
https://t.co/82mReHGclV
tweet
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God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: AI agents are dying. Prompting is evolving. MCP is rewriting the rules.
I'm moderating a panel at AI Skills'2026 to break down what's dead vs. what's next.
Jan 22. 3,000+ attendees. 4+ hours. Free.
Save your free seat: https://t.co/T3LxdWm0DL https://t.co/pb98xxBBUY
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RT @godofprompt: AI agents are dying. Prompting is evolving. MCP is rewriting the rules.
I'm moderating a panel at AI Skills'2026 to break down what's dead vs. what's next.
Jan 22. 3,000+ attendees. 4+ hours. Free.
Save your free seat: https://t.co/T3LxdWm0DL https://t.co/pb98xxBBUY
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Today’s sell-off in $MA and $V brings both back to an interesting level 💳 https://t.co/PxdpKqp89h
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RT @DimitryNakhla: Today’s sell-off in $MA and $V brings both back to an interesting level 💳 https://t.co/PxdpKqp89h
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Offshore
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Moon Dev
the dont believe me or you can predict price
so i manage risk with size
and buy and sell around liquidations instead https://t.co/Qb5wB1nltY
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the dont believe me or you can predict price
so i manage risk with size
and buy and sell around liquidations instead https://t.co/Qb5wB1nltY
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
This is one of the hardest tensions in investing:
Conviction vs adaptability 💬
The best investments often require persistent conviction through long stretches of boredom. Take $ASML — it didn’t do much from early 2023 through mid-2025… and then went on a monster run. In that case, conviction was “easier” because the fundamentals were obvious: near-monopoly position, mission-critical tools, and demand compounding beneath the surface
But conviction without flexibility becomes stubbornness ‼️
Stanley Druckenmiller captured it perfectly:
“I’m not wedded to anything… When the facts change, I change”
So the real skill isn’t being “bullish” or “bearish”
It’s holding strong views lightly — and letting new information update the thesis without ego
___
5 Signs you should be flexible & Re-Underwrite the Thesis
1. The core “why” breaks: The main driver of compounding changes (pricing power weakens, moat narrows, unit economics deteriorate)
2. Capital allocation deteriorates: Value-destructive M&A, leverage creep, buybacks stop despite strong FCF, SBC ramps without offset
3. Quality metrics trend the wrong way: ROIC declining, margins compressing structurally, FCF conversion worsening — the business gets worse over time
4. Competition becomes real, not theoretical: Evidence shows up in falling take rates, market share loss, higher CAC, rising churn, or forced price cuts
5. A pattern of negative surprises emerges: Not one bad quarter — repeated misses, constant narrative changes, “one-time” issues every time
tweet
This is one of the hardest tensions in investing:
Conviction vs adaptability 💬
The best investments often require persistent conviction through long stretches of boredom. Take $ASML — it didn’t do much from early 2023 through mid-2025… and then went on a monster run. In that case, conviction was “easier” because the fundamentals were obvious: near-monopoly position, mission-critical tools, and demand compounding beneath the surface
But conviction without flexibility becomes stubbornness ‼️
Stanley Druckenmiller captured it perfectly:
“I’m not wedded to anything… When the facts change, I change”
So the real skill isn’t being “bullish” or “bearish”
It’s holding strong views lightly — and letting new information update the thesis without ego
___
5 Signs you should be flexible & Re-Underwrite the Thesis
1. The core “why” breaks: The main driver of compounding changes (pricing power weakens, moat narrows, unit economics deteriorate)
2. Capital allocation deteriorates: Value-destructive M&A, leverage creep, buybacks stop despite strong FCF, SBC ramps without offset
3. Quality metrics trend the wrong way: ROIC declining, margins compressing structurally, FCF conversion worsening — the business gets worse over time
4. Competition becomes real, not theoretical: Evidence shows up in falling take rates, market share loss, higher CAC, rising churn, or forced price cuts
5. A pattern of negative surprises emerges: Not one bad quarter — repeated misses, constant narrative changes, “one-time” issues every time
I’m increasingly convinced that the willingness to change your mind is the ultimate sign of intelligence. The most impressive people I know change their minds often in response to new information. It’s like a software update. The goal isn't to be right. It's to find the truth. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) on X
I’m increasingly convinced that the willingness to change your mind is the ultimate sign of intelligence. The most impressive people I know change their minds often in response to new information. It’s like a software update. The goal isn't to be right. It's…