Offshore

Illiquid +23.5% yesterday. +6% pre-market. @theaustinlyons: https://t.co/4PRcJrUWHr $SKYT Q3 2025 earnings: Transformation Confirmed: Fab 25 Reshapes the P&L SkyWater's Q3 marked a structural break from its history. The integration of the newly acquired…

f 17-20%.

🔴 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻
Accounts Receivable ballooned to $85.1M (from $54.3M in Q2), dragging Operating Cash Flow to a modest $7.1M YTD despite the EBITDA surge. Integrating a facility of Fab 25's size requires significant working capital injection, which may constrain near-term free cash flow generation until collections normalize.

New: ⚪ 𝗙𝗹𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗣𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗮𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗥𝗮𝗺𝗽
Accelerating. Tool installation in the Florida facility is expediting, with completion expected in early 2026. This is a critical unlocking mechanism for A&D clients who need secure, domestic heterogeneous integration (combining different chips in one package). Revenue contribution is expected to ramp in 2H 2026.

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𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗞𝗣𝗜𝘀

𝗔𝗱𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗘𝗕𝗜𝗧𝗗𝗔 (𝟮𝟱𝗤𝟯): $𝟮𝟱.𝟴 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻
Accelerating. A step-change from the $2-4M range seen in H1 2025. This 17.1% margin provides the first concrete proof that the Fab 25 acquisition creates operating leverage, although Q4 guidance suggests a slight normalization to ~$19M.

𝗚𝗔𝗔𝗣 𝗡𝗲𝘁 𝗜𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 (𝟮𝟱𝗤𝟯): $𝟭𝟰𝟰.𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻
Distorted. Includes a $110.8M 'bargain purchase gain' (buying Fab 25 for less than fair value of assets) and a $31.8M tax benefit. Real economic earnings are better reflected by Non-GAAP Net Income of $11.5M.

𝗟𝗲𝗴𝗮𝗰𝘆 𝗧𝗼𝗼𝗹𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘂𝗲 (𝟮𝟱𝗤𝟯): $𝟯.𝟳 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻
Reversing. Down 88% YoY from $30.7M in 24Q3. While low-margin, this revenue stream funds CapEx. Guidance suggests a rebound to $17-18M in Q4, indicating the lumpiness is timing-related.

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𝗚𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲

𝟮𝟱𝗤𝟰 𝗧𝗼𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘂𝗲: $𝟭𝟱𝟱 - $𝟭𝟲𝟱 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻
Accelerating vs YoY (due to acquisition), but stable sequentially (+6% at midpoint vs Q3). Includes continued elevated Texas revenue ($84-88M) before normalizing in 2026.

𝟮𝟱𝗤𝟰 𝗟𝗲𝗴𝗮𝗰𝘆 𝗔𝗧𝗦 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘂𝗲: $𝟰𝟴 - $𝟱𝟮 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻
Decelerating. Down from $54.2M in Q3. This reflects the pull-in of ~$4M A&D revenue into Q3 and ongoing government budget delays.

𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗕𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸: $𝟲𝟬𝟬𝗠 𝗥𝗲𝘃 / $𝟲𝟬𝗠 𝗘𝗕𝗜𝗧𝗗𝗔
Stable/Conservative. Management reiterated this floor, calling it 'conservative' given recent momentum. This implies ~10% EBITDA margins, lower than the 17% achieved in Q3, factoring in the roll-off of one-time benefits.

𝟮𝟱𝗤𝟰 𝗡𝗼𝗻-𝗚𝗔𝗔𝗣 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻: 𝟭𝟳.𝟬% - 𝟮𝟬.𝟬%
Decelerating vs Q3 (24.6%) but Accelerating vs Q2 (19.5%). The drop from Q3 reflects the absence of one-time purchase accounting benefits and warranty reversals. - Finsee tweet

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